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PelicanBill

September Tropical Developments

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8 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Welcome to the midpoint of hurricane season!

 

And such a midpoint it is. Over 5 days, chance to develop:

Yellows:  The one moving into NC is down to 0%.  The one in the Bahamas is 30% and the one in the Gulf is 20%.  orange: 40%.  Red: 90%. Crazy, huh?

image.png.c9719f36e5f610edeb648d6b2b0e3236.png

 

I read a report that Bermuda is preparing for a visit by Paulette.  In your opinion, when do you think this is likely to occur?

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Here's the picture for today.  Crossing lower Florida is 60% (chance to develop over 5 days), and in the gulf 30%.  Need to watch that first one as it's heading toward the gulf coast.  Out east we have 90% and 40% and some threat to the islands out there.  Threat from that 90% unknown until we see a depression or stronger and more forecasting.

image.png.968c7f3707ab66a177a036c65ccc33a2.png

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15 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I read a report that Bermuda is preparing for a visit by Paulette.  In your opinion, when do you think this is likely to occur?

Yes, Paulette is now showing strength to be a hurricane and is a threat to Bermuda. Will discuss in the Paulette thread today.

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3 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Here's the picture for today.  Crossing lower Florida is 60% (chance to develop over 5 days), and in the gulf 30%.  Need to watch that first one as it's heading toward the gulf coast.  Out east we have 90% and 40% and some threat to the islands out there.  Threat from that 90% unknown until we see a depression or stronger and more forecasting.

image.png.968c7f3707ab66a177a036c65ccc33a2.png

Very busy!!

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The disturbance off Florida is now a depression 19.  Forecast to be no more than a tropical storm but head to the LA/MS/AL coasts.

image.png.d1590cdd1207b3c27ab052335b74f5a1.png

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Here's the 5 day outlook for today. Gulf: 30%, Africa waves 60% and 90%.  19 is still about the same course and strength as yesterday.

image.png.241e6570615cb4544e2c17204037aa72.png

 

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so much going on!  Paulette and Sally each creating serious threats.  See those threads.  TD 20 now formed, see second graphic, not a threat.  this is the 2-day outlook, the 5-day has stronger potential on #1 and #2.

image.png.85b8ff019057cb010bdc3ef57fc718b6.png

 

image.png.2de9450bedf7d1317ec1387f9f9711b4.png

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The two-day view.  The yellows are unlikely to develop, and the new depression (21) is expected to be short-lived.

Newly named Teddy is expected to be powerful, but so far not a threat.  New thread to be created.

image.png.3f6d4d196a55a84803d5eeebe2324cc0.png

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What the heck.  5 named storms at once?  the "V" storm named jusdt 4 days past the season midpoint?

 

image.png.71203fbe0fdff81c580067fee2341dd5.png

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This continues to blow my mind. The yellows aren't much of a concern, but look at that weirdo in the north latitudes forming in such an unusual place?

image.png.7152a2ccf52b304105a7375d7b5a8d42.png

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Hi Pelican Bill!  Thanks for all the updates on our hurricane season.  I use weather.com and myradar for updates on local weather and my husband uses weatherchannel.  Sometimes we get conflicting info for the same area, same time. Is there an app you prefer for local weather?  Thanks!!

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8pm update for Tropical Outlook.

The gulf area is up to 70% and what this does NOT show is the models suggest movement toward the US gulf coast.  The orange one is 60% and conditions are favorite for a few days then less so on the weekend.  But hate to see the choo choo train going here.

 

image.png.33ae3261f49800f27ee5cf7ff541eb5d.png

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9 hours ago, ninjacat123 said:

Hi Pelican Bill!  Thanks for all the updates on our hurricane season.  I use weather.com and myradar for updates on local weather and my husband uses weatherchannel.  Sometimes we get conflicting info for the same area, same time. Is there an app you prefer for local weather?  Thanks!!

 

Fantastic question.  I hate local weather.  "Local" is Rochester NY but our NWS center is in Buffalo.  They really don't know what's happening here with lake Ontario influences and often get it wrong.

 

I also see different apps and different forecasts vary. Sometimes a lot. Especially predicting winter storms 2-3 days out.  I use several apps:

Accuweather

Channel 13's local app

Wunderground

MyRadar

NOAA Weather

and just for fun....

WTForecast

 

And I read at least two for local weather to compare. And I look at radar and satellite and because I look at them so often I can often see what's coming. I just need help with the temperatures!

 

But surprisingly, some of the computer analysis is getting it right.  I am amazed that my apps correctly norify me about approach rain and how long it will be... about 80% of the time they get it right.

 

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The map will get a lot clearer soon as Sally and Vicky disappear.

The gulf disturbance is at 90% so we'll see a depression any time now. And it's a threat to the gulf coast.

The one off Africa is 40%.  That's a bit better.

Teddy is a threat to Bermuda.

Can't believe we are threatening two in a row for both the gulf coast and Bermuda.image.png.e6a4270dc93de5b898bd8a2583dba937.png

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Oh boy, no break in the activity. Will cover TD 22 next, but now it is threatening the gulf coast.

The red area following Teddy is up to 70% chance to form, so likely. Tow new yellow zones: The one in the north is 30% and doing the same thing as the prior one we can just still see - moving in a weird direction. And the one coming off Africa is 20%.

image.png.eb108f586a08bf17e42c3aea5b1cff36.png

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So this is TD 22... as of this moment.  It would bring a lot of rain to the Texas coast if this happens.  But confidence is low and the area is disorgamized.  Nevertheless, conditions are good so that is why it is forecast to be a tropical storm by tomorrow and a hurricane afterward.  So we need to watch it.

 

image.png.7c55db1c69601cd7974ee53fa36ea997.png

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Oh, this isn't better.  That's a long time on a lot of the Texas coast.  A lot of water.

image.png.125bec1cf2774a01ec5a7d5322b48fa9.png

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Wow. Subtropical storm Alpha has formed. And it's off the map at the coast of Portugal. Weird. You can just see it, and LOL @ NHC for not being able to adjust the map.  22 still churning probably gonna be the next one.

 

image.png.b55614f6f32102d0517aa6d125dd54db.png

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Beta and Teddy brandish themselves at populated places, while disturbances with 50% and 10% chance swirl.  Wilfred is not a threat.

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Sunday morning 8am EDT update.  The orange area is 60% and moving east (!).  A new area on the coast of Florida is only 10% and is moving west onto land, so no further development is likely.

image.png.209d68686b7ca1d831c9924f96a951e0.png

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It seems like quite a few Atlantic storms are weakening.  Could smoke from the Western fires drifting across the Atlantic be a factor?

 

Roy

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Quieting down finally.  Orange is 60%, yellow is 20% (and both are odd paths!)  The yellow area gets more friendly to development in 5 days so need to watch.

 

image.png.f5fa11f8ccde4d2efe62dee91b7d4750.png

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6 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

yellow is 20%

 

It's a rainy afternoon in Fort Lauderdale with the rain/wind appearing to come from the East.  Do you think this disturbance is the cause of this?

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Doesn't look like we can detect much about this disturbance but I would say your weather is a product of the general flow down the east coast.  Look at the size of Teddy compared to Beta!

image.thumb.png.162bcdb3de4ed25eb4c2e91312af214c.png

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