Syracusefan44 Posted November 9, 2020 #526 Share Posted November 9, 2020 (edited) Pfizer reports it’s COVID19 vaccine is more than 90% effective. CCL stock is dramatically in pre-market trading. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html Edited November 9, 2020 by Syracusefan44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted November 9, 2020 #527 Share Posted November 9, 2020 11 hours ago, nocl said: I expect an actuary doing risk calculations on cruise ships from march until the shutdown would come up with considerably higher risk numbers than the other examples you listed. 1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said: Not sure I'd agree with this statement. According to tabulations by insurance companies, 77 percent of car accidents occur within 15 miles or less of home. And car accidents are certainly far more frequent than any of the other possibilities discussed (such as bird strikes or pilot error). For years I've joked with my family that when I travel I am actually far safer, statistically speaking, than when I am at home and engaging in my normal 1.5 hour commute to and from work.... Just to be clear, I was referencing all forms of transportation as travel. People commuting to work are nonetheless travelling even if they're not going to see the Pyramids at Giza during the drive. My point was that we do what we can do to reduce risk but we can just about never remove all risk and guarantee absolute safety in any endeavor - including travel of all types. I am a firm believer in taking all reasonable measures to reduce risk in our everyday lives. I'm not anti mask or anti vaccine. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare cruisemom42 Posted November 9, 2020 #528 Share Posted November 9, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Daniel A said: Just to be clear, I was referencing all forms of transportation as travel. People commuting to work are nonetheless travelling even if they're not going to see the Pyramids at Giza during the drive. My point was that we do what we can do to reduce risk but we can just about never remove all risk and guarantee absolute safety in any endeavor - including travel of all types. I am a firm believer in taking all reasonable measures to reduce risk in our everyday lives. I'm not anti mask or anti vaccine. Stay safe. Thanks for clarifying. Speaking as an editor, there IS a difference between travel and transportation. 😉 From: What's the difference between travel and transportation? As verbs the difference between transport and travel is that transport is to carry or bear from one place to another; to remove; to convey while travel is to be on a journey, often for pleasure or business and with luggage; to go from one place to another. As nouns the difference between transport and travel is that transport is an act of transporting; conveyance while travel is the act of traveling. https://wikidiff.com/transport/travel#:~:text=is that transport is to,from one place to another. Edited November 9, 2020 by cruisemom42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted November 9, 2020 #529 Share Posted November 9, 2020 3 hours ago, cruisemom42 said: Thanks for clarifying. Speaking as an editor, there IS a difference between travel and transportation. 😉 From: What's the difference between travel and transportation? As verbs the difference between transport and travel is that transport is to carry or bear from one place to another; to remove; to convey while travel is to be on a journey, often for pleasure or business and with luggage; to go from one place to another. As nouns the difference between transport and travel is that transport is an act of transporting; conveyance while travel is the act of traveling. https://wikidiff.com/transport/travel#:~:text=is that transport is to,from one place to another. I believe you made my point with your post. See above captioned definition after the last semicolon. Certainly commuting or going from home to the grocery store meets the last part of that definition. It is going from one place to another. But at this point I'm splitting hairs, not worth pursuing any more. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribill Posted November 10, 2020 #530 Share Posted November 10, 2020 18 hours ago, cruisemom42 said: Not sure I'd agree with this statement. According to tabulations by insurance companies, 77 percent of car accidents occur within 15 miles or less of home. And that is because most people do almost all of their driving within 15 miles of their homes. The reason the government allows babies to be carried on a plane instead of requiring a seat for them is that statistics shows the babies have a greater chance of dying if they are being driven to a destination than if they fly to that destination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted November 11, 2020 Author #531 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Yacht Sea Dream with 57 pax & 66 crew on a Caribbean cruise just reported one case of covid 19 tested positive aboard .Not good news for the industry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissP22 Posted November 11, 2020 #532 Share Posted November 11, 2020 2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said: Yacht Sea Dream with 57 pax & 66 crew on a Caribbean cruise just reported one case of covid 19 tested positive aboard .Not good news for the industry Sad, https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/11/seadream-yacht-club-ends-first-caribbean-cruise-after-positive-test/6253380002/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted November 11, 2020 #533 Share Posted November 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, MissP22 said: Sad, https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/11/seadream-yacht-club-ends-first-caribbean-cruise-after-positive-test/6253380002/ False positives have ruined a few cruises now. I can think of two where false positives caused problems. How would you like to be quarantined because one person tested false positive? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare cruisemom42 Posted November 11, 2020 #534 Share Posted November 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Daniel A said: False positives have ruined a few cruises now. I can think of two where false positives caused problems. How would you like to be quarantined because one person tested false positive? The passenger apparently was symptomatic and had actually request a test due to not feeling well. So in all likelihood this is not a false positive. Apparently CC has two writers onboard so expect updates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted November 11, 2020 #535 Share Posted November 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said: The passenger apparently was symptomatic and had actually request a test due to not feeling well. So in all likelihood this is not a false positive. Apparently CC has two writers onboard so expect updates.... Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises. We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted November 12, 2020 Author #536 Share Posted November 12, 2020 8 hours ago, Daniel A said: Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises. We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard. There is need for a quick test that even people at home can self administer .We heard that there is a small bio tec company that can bring about this type of quick test .I did not want to pay the research firm the type of money they wanted to get the name of that company . It was from Stansberry & associates If this is all true then it will be boon to all the travel industry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted November 12, 2020 Author #537 Share Posted November 12, 2020 8 hours ago, Daniel A said: Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises. We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissP22 Posted November 12, 2020 #538 Share Posted November 12, 2020 10 hours ago, Daniel A said: Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises. We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard. False positive or not....until there's a more effective way of testing & prevention (vaccine) we'll be waiting it out. I still believe many people feel the same. Just because they might offer a real deal to get people to sail isn't enough incentive to get us aboard, especially considering the restriction during the trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d9704011 Posted November 12, 2020 #539 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, MissP22 said: False positive or not....until there's a more effective way of testing & prevention (vaccine) we'll be waiting it out. I still believe many people feel the same. Agree with your entire post 100%. As for the false positive business and the potential for ruining people’s cruise experience, I’d be more concerned about the false negatives and the potential impact of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted November 12, 2020 #540 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 hours ago, d9704011 said: Agree with your entire post 100%. As for the false positive business and the potential for ruining people’s cruise experience, I’d be more concerned about the false negatives and the potential impact of those. You're absolutely correct! Both are a big concern. I understood the need to quickly develop testing for Covid-19 but as time goes on, we should be striving for more accurate tests as well as developing vaccines and therapeutics. Otherwise, testing will not work to keep Covid free environments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted November 13, 2020 Author #541 Share Posted November 13, 2020 12 hours ago, Daniel A said: You're absolutely correct! Both are a big concern. I understood the need to quickly develop testing for Covid-19 but as time goes on, we should be striving for more accurate tests as well as developing vaccines and therapeutics. Otherwise, testing will not work to keep Covid free environments. Seems to me that it will take at least 10 billion injections at 2 injections to get just 70% of the worlds population vaccinated for herd immunity . right now the best scenario seems to be just 300,000,000 injectable vaccines by March /April 2021 .That is a very long way from the 10 billion number & remember for just 70% . Then add the possibility that this virus nutates more than once & the pharma companies must remake the vaccine to combat the new strains as well as those manufacturing antibody therapies . The logistics of production & distribution are immense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted November 13, 2020 #542 Share Posted November 13, 2020 10 hours ago, mcrcruiser said: Seems to me that it will take at least 10 billion injections at 2 injections to get just 70% of the worlds population vaccinated for herd immunity . right now the best scenario seems to be just 300,000,000 injectable vaccines by March /April 2021 .That is a very long way from the 10 billion number & remember for just 70% . Then add the possibility that this virus nutates more than once & the pharma companies must remake the vaccine to combat the new strains as well as those manufacturing antibody therapies . The logistics of production & distribution are immense Gee, you are making this sound hopeless. It isn't hopeless as long as we keep plugging away. Take heart! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted November 13, 2020 Author #543 Share Posted November 13, 2020 4 hours ago, Daniel A said: Gee, you are making this sound hopeless. It isn't hopeless as long as we keep plugging away. Take heart! It is not hopeless ;however ,it is reality . Because of this virus increasing in daily cases reported ,we decided to cancel 2 cruises & both were in 2022 . Min reason is with one $billion dollar burn rate of their cash reserves CCL ,RCL & NCL may have to file for reorganizing under the bankruptcy laws .Although they are not there yet ,the lines may find that they can not cruise after Jan 1 ,2021 .This virus attacked 5 people on that Sea Dream cruise & now the passengers are all quarantined to the ship .The CDC will have a lot to say about this issue Iimo the safety of cruising may not be seen until well into 2022 or 2023 . Thus ,if that does occur the cruise lines will not have the resources to survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voljeep Posted November 13, 2020 #544 Share Posted November 13, 2020 these new cruises are a beautiful thing - people have made choices , this time fully knowing the risks associated with cruising and the Corona virus let's hope all cruise lines are following this ongoing situation and developing protocols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipmaster Posted November 13, 2020 #545 Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said: It is not hopeless ;however ,it is reality . Because of this virus increasing in daily cases reported ,we decided to cancel 2 cruises & both were in 2022 . Min reason is with one $billion dollar burn rate of their cash reserves CCL ,RCL & NCL may have to file for reorganizing under the bankruptcy laws .Although they are not there yet ,the lines may find that they can not cruise after Jan 1 ,2021 .This virus attacked 5 people on that Sea Dream cruise & now the passengers are all quarantined to the ship .The CDC will have a lot to say about this issue Iimo the safety of cruising may not be seen until well into 2022 or 2023 . Thus ,if that does occur the cruise lines will not have the resources to survive Will there be cruising, yes, what it will look like and who will be there, that is the 20 billion dollar question the lenders are wondering and gambling about, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nocl Posted November 14, 2020 #546 Share Posted November 14, 2020 On 11/12/2020 at 6:28 AM, Daniel A said: You're absolutely correct! Both are a big concern. I understood the need to quickly develop testing for Covid-19 but as time goes on, we should be striving for more accurate tests as well as developing vaccines and therapeutics. Otherwise, testing will not work to keep Covid free environments. You can have the best test in the world, but if the virus (or the biomarker you are using in place of the virus is not in the sample) then even the best test fails. PCR is much more accurate than the quick antigen tests, but even with people showing symptoms the virus can be undetectable in the swabs or spit sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribill Posted November 14, 2020 #547 Share Posted November 14, 2020 12 hours ago, mcrcruiser said: This virus attacked 5 people on that Sea Dream cruise & now the passengers are all quarantined to the ship .The CDC will have a lot to say about this issue https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-putting-american-lives-risk-204133748.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky TGO Posted November 14, 2020 #548 Share Posted November 14, 2020 When will we feel safe to cruise? I think that day is a LONG way off. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissP22 Posted November 14, 2020 #549 Share Posted November 14, 2020 2 hours ago, caribill said: https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-putting-american-lives-risk-204133748.html This was my fear all along and was almost sure it would happen. Unless there's a vaccine, which they should make mandatory to sail, they'll never contain it from spreading on a ship. There are just to many variables to consider. Hopefully by the fall season of 2021 things will settle down & we can return to our normal sailing schedule. In the mean time I suspect we'll see more occurrences of ship outbreaks during 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted November 14, 2020 Author #550 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 hours ago, caribill said: https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-putting-american-lives-risk-204133748.html We agree with this letter's intentions . Adding my own perspective , foreign crew members will require in depth testing many times before during & after their contracts end . Then as vaccines become more readily available each of the crew will have to be vaccinated & if there are some than can not take a vaccine they can not be on the ships . It seems to me that the vaccines will not be readily available to the general public before april /May of 2021 .Then the vaccines will be used based on priorities set up by our government what groups of people receive the first doses Even with the vaccines there is still the chance of spreading this virus especially if it mutates . Many variables that must be considered With the current cash burn rate of one $billion per month by CCL ,RCL & NCL ,it really isn;t that long before the lines would need to file for reorganizing under the bankruptcy laws .Since the lines cruise ships are all foreign flag vessels & do not pay US taxes ,we do not see congress passing any stimulus aid to the cruise lines .This left us with the conclusion to cancel our 2 cruises of 2022 to get our deposits refunded ; because ,we could not se sure in a bankruptcy proceeding that those deposits would be safe or lost in a reorganizing court order . no crystal ball here . The foregoing is my opinion only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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