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Carnival Corp. adds 5 more ships to exit list


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5 hours ago, roeco9084 said:

From an articele i read  the Horizon,Carnival Imagination,Marella Celebration and Carnival Fascination are the next 4 to be scrapped starting in October after the current 4 in scrapping process now at Aliaga.

Definitely not the Carnival Horizon and the other one has already been rumorsed as being sold as scrap by Royal

Edited by regoodwinjr
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4 hours ago, ChC said:

 

I agree with AIDAcara, at 38,557T, it's future may not fit in the reduced passenger model. And AIDAmira is not on AIDA website any more.

 

Smaller and older ships are prime suspects to be retired early. HAL has Volendam and Zaandam, Seaborne could have one or two ships cut due to demand. Other than that I don't see any more removals as most of other ships are built after 2000. If there is any more it could have been P&Os Aurora. 

 


I wasn’t sure if AIDAmira was a exit announced preCovid, post Covid or something new. If she is not part of the additional 5 then my next guess (as you also stated) would be P&O Aurora. 
 

With only 5 ships and the “oldest” being built in 2009, the Seabourn fleet is too young IMO to be part of this wave of cuts.  I do foresee additional consolidation of back of house, and staffing, etc for HAL/Seabourn in future. Basically run them as one company with two different customer facing products with different branding. 

Edited by AtlantaCruiser72
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On 9/16/2020 at 2:37 AM, regoodwinjr said:

Definitely not the Carnival Horizon and the other one has already been rumorsed as being sold as scrap by Royal

Pillmantur Horizon  to my knowledge is in Eleusis Bay Greece along with Marella Celebration. While Carnival Fascination is currently in Cadiz. All 3 are expected to go to Aliaga soon.

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Interesting to note that with all the fantasy hardware on the beach in Turkey they had about the same number of lower berth capacity as the Mardi Gras and Celebration. The latter are more profitable so it is a win really for the shareowners.

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Not sure why Ecstasy isn't one.  IMO, it was definitely in the worse shape (at least cosmetically) of any Fantasy-class ship I've sailed, and I have about 80 nights on those ships.  Even dear, old Fantasy was in better shape when she was in Charleston.  Replaced by Ecstasy, and I thought she was pretty rancid.

 

As a fan of older, smaller ships, this makes me sad.  I understand that newer builds are probably more efficient to operate, but the re-built Destiny-class ships have an absolutely horrible space ratio, so even if sailing at reduced capacity, they'll feel more crowded than the older ships.

 

Been saying for a while now that if/when there's a viable vaccine, demand will spike and so will prices, especially with so much inventory being removed.  Partly why I have 8 cruises booked between Jan 2021 and Feb 2022 - prefer to have my deposits in limbo but have reasonable fares locked in. 

 

Supply and demand, folks.  Econ 101.

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13 minutes ago, NCTribeFan said:

As a fan of older, smaller ships, this makes me sad.  I understand that newer builds are probably more efficient to operate, but the re-built Destiny-class ships have an absolutely horrible space ratio, so even if sailing at reduced capacity, they'll feel more crowded than the older ships.

 

Been saying for a while now that if/when there's a viable vaccine, demand will spike and so will prices, especially with so much inventory being removed.  Partly why I have 8 cruises booked between Jan 2021 and Feb 2022 - prefer to have my deposits in limbo but have reasonable fares locked in. 

 

Supply and demand, folks.  Econ 101.


I completely agree with your point about Destiny class ships. Sunshine is my least favorite Carnival ship. Both my wife and I agreed we would never cruise on her again  after only one cruise on Sunshine. We also have no desire to sail on Sunrise or Radiance. 
 

Just my opinion, but I don’t think the demand for cruising is going to be close to what it was pre COVID. There will definitely be an initial surge when cruise lines resumes operations from US ports due to all the canceled cruises, FCC offers, OBC offers, etc. But once this peak passes, I think the demand is going to be significantly lower. 
 

We have a circle of friends who cruise frequently like we do, usually 6-8 cruises a year. No doubt all of them will return to cruising often like we will do too. However, I have heard from countless friends, neighbors, family, co-workers, etc. that say they will never go on another cruise. A lot of cruise lines, and especially Carnival, depend heavily on novice and first time cruisers. The vast majority of cruises that JH published passenger numbers always included a high number of blue cards. I think there will be a sharp decrease in this area, which ultimately is going to decrease the demand for cruising. 
 

I still like your strategy since higher fares are likely in the future. Even if the demand decreases like I think it will, the cruise lines are going to need increased revenues to pay back the massive debts resulting from this pandemic. 

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On 9/16/2020 at 6:03 AM, ChC said:

 

I agree with AIDAcara, at 38,557T, it's future may not fit in the reduced passenger model. And AIDAmira is not on AIDA website any more.

 

Smaller and older ships are prime suspects to be retired early. HAL has Volendam and Zaandam, Seaborne could have one or two ships cut due to demand. Other than that I don't see any more removals as most of other ships are built after 2000. If there is any more it could have been P&Os Aurora. 

 

 

Carnival announced today Sea Princess and Sun Princess have been sold. The Sun Princess is rumored to be going to Peace Boat, and I would think Sea Princess would be sold for further trading as she has balconies and not that old. 

 

 

 

On 9/16/2020 at 2:37 AM, regoodwinjr said:

Definitely not the Carnival Horizon and the other one has already been rumorsed as being sold as scrap by Royal

Pillmantur Horizon  to my knowledge is in Eleusis Bay Greece along with Marella Celebration. While Carnival Fascination is currently in Cadiz. All 3 are expected to go to Aliaga soon.

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Not sure why Ecstasy isn't one.  IMO, it was definitely in the worse shape (at least cosmetically) of any Fantasy-class ship I've sailed, and I have about 80 nights on those ships.  Even dear, old Fantasy was in better shape when she was in Charleston.  Replaced by Ecstasy, and I thought she was pretty rancid.
 
As a fan of older, smaller ships, this makes me sad.  I understand that newer builds are probably more efficient to operate, but the re-built Destiny-class ships have an absolutely horrible space ratio, so even if sailing at reduced capacity, they'll feel more crowded than the older ships.
 
Been saying for a while now that if/when there's a viable vaccine, demand will spike and so will prices, especially with so much inventory being removed.  Partly why I have 8 cruises booked between Jan 2021 and Feb 2022 - prefer to have my deposits in limbo but have reasonable fares locked in. 
 
Supply and demand, folks.  Econ 101.
I am also surprised Ecstasy wasn't on the list. We sailed her in 2014 and she was pretty beat up. Still nice though. She's had lots of work done ... She's in drydock now getting another upgrade...they just keep putting more into that one.

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I've sailed Sunshine twice and didn't hate her.  But the things I do when I cruise don't typically involve being in the high-traffic areas at peak times.  I think Sunrise has an even worse space ratio that Sunshine, though.  And the changes to the layout just don't look like improvements to me (at least just looking at the deck plans).  I may end up on Sunrise in January if my HAL B2Bs are cancelled (and I'm afraid they will be AND they were virtually free casino offers 😞 ).

 

I didn't realize Ecstasy had had a recent drydock because I had no plans to ever sail her again.  I was in a 1A midship on Riviera and the bathroom flooring had a huge "soft spot" that felt like it was about to cave in.  Friends took the upsell to the Owner's Suite, which was gorgeous, but very noisy from the blasting music on Lido.  And their little balcony as in poor shape.

 

Anyway, I know there are lots of cruisers who think they just have to sail on the newest, biggest, most bells-and-whistles ships.  But there are those of us who prefer smaller ships with a more "personal" feel to them.

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On 9/18/2020 at 8:27 AM, NCTribeFan said:

Not sure why Ecstasy isn't one.  IMO, it was definitely in the worse shape (at least cosmetically) of any Fantasy-class ship I've sailed, and I have about 80 nights on those ships.  Even dear, old Fantasy was in better shape when she was in Charleston.  Replaced by Ecstasy, and I thought she was pretty rancid.

 

As a fan of older, smaller ships, this makes me sad.  I understand that newer builds are probably more efficient to operate, but the re-built Destiny-class ships have an absolutely horrible space ratio, so even if sailing at reduced capacity, they'll feel more crowded than the older ships.

 

Been saying for a while now that if/when there's a viable vaccine, demand will spike and so will prices, especially with so much inventory being removed.  Partly why I have 8 cruises booked between Jan 2021 and Feb 2022 - prefer to have my deposits in limbo but have reasonable fares locked in. 

 

Supply and demand, folks.  Econ 101.

 

You could be right, but I highly disagree. The old ships never commanded high fares. No matter how much someone on the internet liked them, they weren't critical for their business. Plus they have a lower profitability rate, less upsell opportunities, etc.

 

These ships obviously did not have a long future ahead of them. While the company is burning through cash for having these liabilities, I couldn't think of a better time to rid of them. If Carnival was to set sail tomorrow (which they wouldn't), these ships still wouldn't be bringing in enough money. Add in all of the reasons they weren't super-profitable before, and add in limited capacity.

 

I do think it will be interesting to see what demand and inventory looks like in the future. There are certainly people scared away from cruising ever again (although as we know, many of them don't hold to their word). There are certainly people wanting to cruise today. I do think cruising will take a turn for the "premium" after this, which will bring some good to the industry.

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"In total, the 18 ships represent approximately 12 percent of pre-pause capacity and only three percent of operating income in 2019," Carnival said, in an SEC filing.

 

That says it all....12% capacity and 3% of income.  With a soft market when cruising returns that number could go even lower.  At some point you have to decide is it worth it financially.

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20 minutes ago, ray98 said:

"In total, the 18 ships represent approximately 12 percent of pre-pause capacity and only three percent of operating income in 2019," Carnival said, in an SEC filing.

 

That says it all....12% capacity and 3% of income.  With a soft market when cruising returns that number could go even lower.  At some point you have to decide is it worth it financially.

This was a pure financial move.  Their analysis told them this was the bet move, and they acted.  While I will miss some of these ships and there are cruises where this size ship could flourish, they will be much off as a result.

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20 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:


How far off will they be? 😊

Good question, at the end of the day, the Fantasy class is mature (nice way of putting it) and they really do cost more per passenger to run.  When the times retold, it is a no brainer, when tough it is something more.  Tough ti,ES require gutsy tough decisions, this one strikes me as deacon.  We will see.  The big unknown is what will cruise lines look like in the future, and how long it takes to get there.  

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13 minutes ago, roeco9084 said:

Are their any ports in the Caribbean or US that Carnivals larger ships cant fit into? Like if they got rid of all the Fantasy class can they still continue to service the destinations they do now currently?

 

Fantasy is the perfect size for Cuba. and if they got rid of Fantasy class, some US embarkation ports would be a challenge.

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Just now, xDisconnections said:

Sunshine and Victory had scheduled port calls in Havana so they would still be fine in the future.

 

It would be a long cruise from the left coast for Radiance. Not sure what Royal is going to do when they get rid of their rustbucket class.

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1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

 

It would be a long cruise from the left coast for Radiance. Not sure what Royal is going to do when they get rid of their rustbucket class.

Just as easily as it was deployed to the west coast, it could be redeployed elsewhere. It just shows that a similar sized vessel could visit there.

 

Personally, I’d rather spend time there without being on a cruise just as I did when my Cuba cruise was canceled — on the Victory.

Edited by xDisconnections
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53 minutes ago, roeco9084 said:

Are their any ports in the Caribbean or US that Carnivals larger ships cant fit into? Like if they got rid of all the Fantasy class can they still continue to service the destinations they do now currently?


I don’t think there is any Caribbean port that Carnival’s current fleet can’t reach. Even Vista class ships, which are currently Carnival’s largest until Mardi Gras starts sailing, are on the small side. 

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