Where do you think the first US departing cruises will go?

[SelectSys]

My guess is Mexico for the following reasons

 

1) as the country is and wants to be open for cruising

2) state department lowered the travel risk for US travelers

3) no where else to go

4) Mexico COVID cases/deaths are truly falling now suggesting some kind of societal immunity may be building 

 

and most importantly

5) NCL is trying to go in November https://www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/norwegian-is-selling-cruises-along-mexican-coastlines-for-november-2020.html

 

My gut suggests both east coast and west coast departures.

 

What do others think.  Note this is for large ocean going ships and not local river/coastal cruises.

 

BTW - did you all see that Carnival is selling 18 more ships and all cruises stopped until 2021? https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-corporation-removes-more-ships-from-fleet/

 

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by SelectSys

[lenquixote66]

Within the continental US

[jeremyosborne81]

39 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

Within the continental US

Not with the PVSA intact.

Probably Mexico, as we Americans can travel there now. Also, cruise line private islands in the Bahamas

[lenquixote66]

11 minutes ago, jeremyosborne81 said:

Not with the PVSA intact.

Probably Mexico, as we Americans can travel there now. Also, cruise line private islands in the Bahamas

Possibly ,but that may not be for a few years.

[navybankerteacher]

Probably from Florida (whose government seems less concerned than that of California about controlling spread) and likely short - three or four day trips to private islands.

[SelectSys]

39 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Probably from Florida (whose government seems less concerned than that of California about controlling spread) and likely short - three or four day trips to private islands.

 

NCL shows their first CA to Mexico cruise departing in December of this year.  You are probably correct that FL is first as Disneyland and other theme parks have yet to open.  Interestingly zoos and aquariums are open which seem quite similar to me.

[Tapi]

I think that the first cruises will depart from Florida (more specifically Miami or Port Canaveral). First port of calls will be in Mexico (it was reported a few weeks ago that 6 cruise lines have approached the Mexican government to obtain approval to begin cruises in November, and they are happy to oblige). 
 

I have a feeling that the Bahamas won’t be too far behind (they are going into phase 3 on October 15th and the next step after that is receiving cruise ships). 
 

Even though it’s not in the news, American tourists are currently flocking to Mexico in droves. Airlines are operating multiple daily flights from various US cities, most operating full. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Tapi

[bigrednole]

I expect private islands (Labadee, CocoCay, Castaway Cay, etc) and Mexico. The head of tourism for Cozumel says every cruise line is bombarding them with opening in November and what they can or willing to accommodate. As others have stated, tourist destinations in Mexico are getting lots of visitors. Friends were at one 2 weeks ago. They have study facilities for kids that have to do virtual classes. They can go on vacation, the kids can do school, and still have the afternoon and night to vacation. 

[ldubs]

I agree with most above -- Mexico seems likely.   Especially if from the West coast.   From Florida, I guess Caribbean locations come into play.   

[cruisemom42]

On 9/17/2020 at 5:36 PM, SelectSys said:

 

 

BTW - did you all see that Carnival is selling 18 more ships and all cruises stopped until 2021? https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-corporation-removes-more-ships-from-fleet/

 

 

 

That's not 18 "more" ships -- it is actually announcing only 3 more ships in addition to those announced several months ago.

 

[wheezedr]

I would guess that a cruise from Florida with some combination of a private island stop, Mexico, likely Cozumel, and one of the Caribbean islands looking more aggressively for the tourist dollar as your ports of call.   It will be somewhat later for the Mexican Riviera as California ports will be slower to open than those in S Florida.

[iancal]

Mexico, private islands, DR perhaps.  Or just Mexican Pacific coast.

Edited September 28, 2020 by iancal

[SelectSys]

On 9/18/2020 at 5:46 PM, ldubs said:

I agree with most above -- Mexico seems likely.   Especially if from the West coast...   

 

3 hours ago, iancal said:

Mexico, private islands, DR perhaps.  Or just Mexican Pacific coast.

 

I am becoming less bullish on the West Coast.  Our Governor is still pretty cautious in terms of opening.  I am not sure if he can keep cruises shutdown like he has done in terms of not allowing theme parks to operate.

[ldubs]

2 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

 

I am becoming less bullish on the West Coast.  Our Governor is still pretty cautious in terms of opening.  I am not sure if he can keep cruises shutdown like he has done in terms of not allowing theme parks to operate.

 

He is being cautious and I hope it is based on advice of health experts as opposed to that which shall not be named. Lol  

 

I don't foresee any cruise ships loading up in California ports for quite a while.   My county's numbers are looking better.  It looks like we are about to move to Tier 2 and I hope that trend continues.      

Edited September 28, 2020 by ldubs

[clo]

40 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

He is being cautious and I hope it is based on advice of health experts as opposed to that which shall not be named. Lol  

 

I don't foresee any cruise ships loading up in California ports for quite a while.   My county's numbers are looking better.  It looks like we are about to move to Tier 2 and I hope that trend continues.      

And then there was this the other day:

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/09/25/california-could-see-89-increase-in-hospitalizations-next-month-health-official-warns/

[BSR]

1 hour ago, ldubs said:

 

He is being cautious and I hope it is based on advice of health experts as opposed to that which shall not be named. Lol  

 

I don't foresee any cruise ships loading up in California ports for quite a while.   My county's numbers are looking better.  It looks like we are about to move to Tier 2 and I hope that trend continues.      

I agree with you as I don't see cruises sailing from CA this year.  We haven't moved up yet - still in Tier 1 - SoCAL.

[ldubs]

59 minutes ago, BSR said:

I agree with you as I don't see cruises sailing from CA this year.  We haven't moved up yet - still in Tier 1 - SoCAL.

 

I know SoCAL covers a lot of counties, but I was impressed to see LA County's percent positives at 2.8%.  And the cases/1,000 is getting there.  Hopefully that will be sustained & improve even more.    I don't don't see how an increase in cases can be avoided as things open.  

 

I saw some relatively high positive rates in some of the central valley counties.   I suspect that has to do with fall harvest but that is only a guess.   

[Honolulu Blue]

1. Private island
2. Cozumel
3. Labadee/Grand Turk/Costa Maya/Amber Cove/Mahogany Bay
4. Progreso
5. Nassau/Freeport
6. Mexican port on the Pacific side
7. St. Thomas/St. Croix
8. Key West
9. other American port on the Gulf or Atlantic
10. American port on the Pacific (including Alaska/Hawaii)

[iancal]

The question should probably be what country will permit them to enter vs. where will they go.

[clo]

24 minutes ago, iancal said:

The question should probably be what country will permit them to enter vs. where will they go.

THIS^^^^^. And I'm guessing that component is going to delay restarting HUGELY.

[iancal]

If I were a small island nation in the Caribbean with limited resources I would not be allowing any cruise ships to dock until the covid situation is under control and an effective/hightly available vaccine is available.

 

Their economies are hurting terribly.  But not nearly as much as if they ended up with a virus outbreak on an island that did not have the medical resources available to handle the crisis.  This would necessitate an inevitable closure of the ports.

 

What island nation would want cruise ships from a country with the worst covid numbers in the world to enter their ports before an effective solution is available?

Edited September 29, 2020 by iancal

[Roger88]

I think the cruising will be very local oriented. Some sea cruising, river cruising, maybe Dominica or something but not global cruising with in-land excursions in different countries and cities. My best guess would be local river cruises and some popular destination without leaving the ship 

[ldubs]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

The question should probably be what country will permit them to enter vs. where will they go.

 

Kind of a given that they won't go where they are not permitted!  I suspect Mexican Riviera will not be an issue from that standpoint.  Of course I'm just guessing.   

[Ashland]

I don't think our governor will let ships sail from California too soon.....We still have a lot of things that are shut down....cruising isn't high on his list.

[ldubs]

Just now, Ashland said:

I don't think our governor will let ships sail from California too soon.....We still have a lot of things that are shut down....cruising isn't high on his list.

 

I agree with you.  We have other fish to fry before we worry about opening up cruises.