Outlook for 2021 cruises to Asia?

[helenb]

My husband and I booked a June 2021 cruise (Shanghai to Anchorage) last January, before all of this COVID stuff blew up. We are hoping that we will be able to go on this trip, but have no idea what the sentiment is now in Asia (especially in China) regarding allowing American tourists into their countries. Has anyone heard anything about allowing cruises to sail again in Asia next year?

[BruceMuzz]

It is still too early to even make informed guesses for next year.

 

It appears that Carnival and Royal Caribbean are planning China-based cruises in 2021.

But that depends on which other Asian countries (if any) will allow cruise ships to enter. China has its own Cabotage Laws that require ships to visit foreign ports. It gets more complicated as China will not allow a foreign cruise ship to travel directly between China and Taiwan. To my best knowledge, there are no other Asian countries currently allowing cruise ships with passengers to make port calls. 

 

Here in Japan, we are now permitted to leave and re-enter, and foreigners with new working visas will be allowed to enter Japan starting in October. But no tourists are currently allowed to enter Japan, and there is no information as to when that might change.

The Japanese government is currently discussing regulations for Olympians entering Japan next summer, and it appears that they will relax the rules for that. It probably means that they will also relax tourism visa regulations to go along with the Summer Olympics.

 

With the Virus still out of control in countries like USA, India, and Brazil, it seems unlikely that those citizens will be able to visit most of Asia anytime soon. There are discussions going on now between China, Japan, and some SE Asian countries to permit tourism from countries that do have the COVID numbers under control: Europe and some Asian countries.  

[BruceMuzz]

Good news.

Yesterday 2 Japanese cruise lines announced plans to begin domestic Japanese voyages on 02 November.

These will be marketed primarily to Japanese nationals, and will not call at foreign ports.

[helenb]

Still holding out hope that Asian cruises will resume, and that even if China will not permit American visitors, that our cruise will still happen with a different departure port. If cruising around the US starts up again in December (as it seems might be the case) then that's a lot of time for the Asian itineraries to start happening too...

 

But then, cruise lines need to make these decisions sooner rather than later. They may be forced to make a call in February or March, based on the conditions at that time. I've had that happen before on cruises calling on Egyptian ports, when there has been unrest in that country.

[WisRiver]

Holland America has scheduled the Noordam to cruise in Asia in 2021 and 2022.  The Noordam is scheduled to leave Vancouver in late September, stop in Alaska and continue on to Japan.  We are considering a 28 day collector cruise from Singapore to Hong Kong and return in November 2021.  It looks like the Noordam returns to North America in the Spring, 2022 for the Alaska cruising season.  

[Expat Cruise]

 

A few problems with this cruise. First it was a re positioning cruise to bring the ship from Asia to Alaska for the Summer season. At this point not even sure the ship will be in Asia or that Alaska cruises will be open. Example  Princess Cruises has sold off two ships already; Sun & Sea, they maybe moving around other ships, and again this ship could be somewhere else.  Royal has sold ships and  Carnival Corporation has sold or removed 18 ships in total. So mthe return will be different for sure.

 

That said Asia cruising is already back. Genting has been cruising on the Dream since July.... zero Covid-19 cases, about 25 completed cruises in Taiwan. They are now adding a second ship. RCL and Genting are starting cruises out of Singapore in December. It seems Asia is up and running well before the United States. 

 

But getting to Asia today is still very hard. We live in the Philippines, the only way I can enter the Philippines now (US Passport) is because my wife is a Philippines passport holder. And if we did enter Covid-19 test and held in hotel until comes back negative. Most Asian countries are closed to tourist at this time. But many are talking about opening soon. Right now Cambodia is open but Airport Covid-19 testing, cash deposit with government (USD$3000) and proof of Covid-19 Heath Insurance, plus hotel quarantine until test is back.

 

Because of all these factors I believe your cruise is 50/50 now.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Expat Cruise

[helenb]

Thanks for the detailed reply, Expat! This is what I was hoping for in this thread... perspectives from people like you (and Bruce Muzz) who know more about what is going on right now in that part of the world. You both make a lot of good points.

 

I'm okay if the cruise gets moved around, but we really liked this repositioning trip because of the week in Asia + relaxing week at sea + much cheaper airfare to return home at the end. If it ends up getting cancelled, or changed so much that it is effectively cancelled (e.g. making it a cruise around Australia) then we will still try to cruise *somewhere*. But having everything in limbo is really frustrating!

 

We are also booked on a MSC cruise out of Miami in January, and that one is looking like it might actually happen. If it does, I may have more confidence about Asia in June. 😉

 

WisRiver, that sounds like a great cruise! I hope that it happens for you. I suspect that yours is much more likely than mine, being later in the year.

 

In the meantime, I would love to hear more perspectives as well as any new people have (such as BruceMuzz's comment about the Olympics in Japan making it open to tourists). 

[helenb]

Well, we got a notification last night that Princess cancelled our June cruise because they have changed the routes for their ships... although they don't show any June 2021 cruises for that ship on their site. 

 

So I guess we'll be looking for a different cruise.

[BruceMuzz]

MSC announced yesterday that they have received permission from the Japanese Government to base one of their ships in Yokohama next year (2021). Not sure if Americans will be allowed into Japan to join the ship, however.

[helenb]

Regardless, it is good news that other countries are allowing cruise ships into their ports. 

[Hlitner]

On 11/26/2020 at 8:46 AM, BruceMuzz said:

MSC announced yesterday that they have received permission from the Japanese Government to base one of their ships in Yokohama next year (2021). Not sure if Americans will be allowed into Japan to join the ship, however.

Bruce, My understanding is that the MSC cruises would be limited to only Japanese and perhaps a few other Asian countries with few cases of COVID.  My friends in Japan believe that Japan will not open up to most cruises until after the Olympics.  There are so many different stories coming out of Japan regarding the thinking of their government vis-a-vis tourism but little has been said about cruises.  We just booked a March 2022 Japan cruise (28 days) and even have our doubts if Japan will be open to cruises in 2022!   

 

Hank

[Seto_Islander]

From Seto Islands Sea,Japan

 

As explained above, Japanese 3 cruise line has been cruising since November.

Japan is not open for overseas travellers, so there is only domestic voyage now. Possibly Government will try to make it open for travellers before Olympic.

I really hope it goes back to normal early.

 

I found my home city made a video of cruise voyage some months ago.This is a little funny, but I like it. Please try it from following page.

https://www.pref.kagawa.lg.jp/kouryu/cruise/english/index.html

[Cruise Wonderland]

On 1/9/2021 at 6:33 PM, Seto_Islander said:

From Seto Islands Sea,Japan

 

As explained above, Japanese 3 cruise line has been cruising since November.

Japan is not open for overseas travellers, so there is only domestic voyage now. Possibly Government will try to make it open for travellers before Olympic.

I really hope it goes back to normal early.

 

I found my home city made a video of cruise voyage some months ago.This is a little funny, but I like it. Please try it from following page.

https://www.pref.kagawa.lg.jp/kouryu/cruise/english/index.html

 

Thank you for sharing the video! I have only been to Kochi before, and hope to visit Takamatsu soon in the future.

[BruceMuzz]

The 3 Japanese cruise lines sailing around Japan with only Japanese passengers are doing quite well so far. Zero COVID cases.

The Tokyo Olympics are becoming less and less likely to happen this year.

Foreigners allowed to visit Japan this year seems to be less and less likely as well.

Edited January 19, 2021 by BruceMuzz

[iancal]

Any educated guesses as to when Thailand and Vietnam will open up?   By Jan 2022?

[BruceMuzz]

Japanese Government yesterday announced that when foreign flag cruise ships resume Japan cruises, they will be required to file daily illness reports before arriving in Japanese ports (very similar to the VSP reports required in the USA).

This is positive news, as they are at least admitting that foreign ships will be allowed into Japan in future.

On the negative side, the Tokyo Olympics are looking less and less likely to happen.

[santoliston]

Hopefully, booked with Celebrity for Hong Kong to Singapore in January

 

Tony

[Hlitner]

On 2/2/2021 at 4:01 AM, BruceMuzz said:

Japanese Government yesterday announced that when foreign flag cruise ships resume Japan cruises, they will be required to file daily illness reports before arriving in Japanese ports (very similar to the VSP reports required in the USA).

This is positive news, as they are at least admitting that foreign ships will be allowed into Japan in future.

On the negative side, the Tokyo Olympics are looking less and less likely to happen.

I wonder how this will "play out?"  While filing daily health reports makes perfect sense the result of these reports could be a huge problem for the cruise industry.  If a country (in this case....Japan) were to refuse docking permission to a ship that had any kind of illness aboard, booking an expensive cruise could become a ridiculous gamble.  On a vessel of 3000+ souls there are always going to be some passengers/crew suffering from various maladies.  In the past that was not usually a major problem when it came to the day to day activities on ships.  But would we fly half way around the world to join a cruise where day to day port calls would be impacted by any onboard illness?  

 

I fear that the long term fallout from the COVID Pandemic is that many countries are going to become overly cautious about illness.  Perhaps COVID will be brought under control with vaccines (a very good thing) but how will Japan react to a ship health report that several folks are suffering from an unknown GI illness (very common on any ship)?  Would that cause a long delay in allowing passengers to disembark for a day ashore?  Would they insist on multi-day quarantines of all passengers?  Until COVID we (society) have accepted that sickness is part of life and we should respond to it in a very proportional way.  But now I wonder if proportionality will be a lost concept.  Auckland, NZ was recently locked down because of 3 new COVID cases.  Yes, the largest city of the country with over 1.4 million folks was completely locked down because they had 3 COVID cases.  Would they do the same thing if they had 3 Norovirus cases?  Perhaps this is the new future and it might be very problematic for travelers and cruisers.

 

Hank

[BruceMuzz]

Japan's third COVID wave is receding very quickly now.

The number of new cases is dropping very quickly - even in Tokyo and Osaka.

The National State of Emergency has been called off in most areas of the country today.

The SOE restrictions will remain in place in Tokyo and a few other densely populated areas.

The SOE will expire on 07 March and is not expected to be extended.

It now appears that the Tokyo Olympics will happen, but perhaps with some restrictions.

[BruceMuzz]

Japan Times today updated the status of the State of Emergency in Japan.

The SOE has now been called off in most areas. The remaining areas (larger cities) will be opened up on 08 March. Immediately after that, the Japanese Government will make it possible for Olympic athletes to begin coming to Japan to train for the Olympics.

With Immigration opening up for foreigners coming for the Olympics, other tourism visits cannot be far behind.   

[Hlitner]

I think some might find this article interesting and somewhat depressing:

 

Japan planning to ban overseas Olympic spectators over COVID-19 fears: report (yahoo.com)  This will obviously put the IOC in a very tough position.  

 

Hank

 

 

[BruceMuzz]

11 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I think some might find this article interesting and somewhat depressing:

 

Japan planning to ban overseas Olympic spectators over COVID-19 fears: report (yahoo.com)  This will obviously put the IOC in a very tough position.  

 

Hank

 

 

Yesterday Japanese PM Suga announced that the existing COVID State of Emergency that was scheduled to expire on 07 March would be extended in the Tokyo area. He also announced that foreign Olympic athletes would be allowed into Japan - but not foreign spectators.

In all the polls, the majority of the Japanese public agrees with his decision.

 

Although Japan’s current COVID numbers are lower than most individual US States, that is still not good enough for Japanese sensibilities.

Overall this puts a huge delay on any chances of foreign cruise ships calling at Japanese ports. 

[Hlitner]

54 minutes ago, BruceMuzz said:

Yesterday Japanese PM Suga announced that the existing COVID State of Emergency that was scheduled to expire on 07 March would be extended in the Tokyo area. He also announced that foreign Olympic athletes would be allowed into Japan - but not foreign spectators.

In all the polls, the majority of the Japanese public agrees with his decision.

 

Although Japan’s current COVID numbers are lower than most individual US States, that is still not good enough for Japanese sensibilities.

Overall this puts a huge delay on any chances of foreign cruise ships calling at Japanese ports. 

I completely agree with your analysis.  I think the big question is whether the IOC is going to allow the Olympics proceed with these restrictions.   As to cruises, we have said for months that there will be no cruises in Asia in 2021 that are opened to folks from the West.

 

Hank

[BruceMuzz]

Yes. It remains to be seen what the IOC will decide.

As for no foreigners cruising in Japan this year, this is great news for those of us living in Japan. There are quite a few Japan cruises available right now, at great prices. And the ships are only half-full. 

[BruceMuzz]

The Japan Times confirmed today that the Tokyo Summer Olympics will go ahead as (re)planned, and without foreign spectators.