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The CDC just extended the no sail order...


BermudaBound2014
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https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23576-cruise-ship-no-sail-order-set-to-extend-through-october.html

 

And according to the article, the director of the CDC wanted to push the no sail order  into next year (but was over ruled). 

 

 

 

 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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More details keep coming out. 

 

This article states that the CDC wanted the no-sail order extended until February 15, 2021.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/09/29/cdc-no-cruising-until-oct-31-four-days-before-election/3508836001/

 

This article goes a bit deeper on the politics behind the decision: https://www.axios.com/scoop-white-house-overruled-cdc-cruise-ships-florida-91442136-1b8e-442e-a2a1-0b24e9a39fb6.html

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There is a lot of pressure (from cruise lines, South Florida's governments, cruisers, etc) to get the cruise industry opened up.  From the CDC's perspective the COVID issues have yet to be satisfactorily addressed and this has been expressed by their recommendation to halt cruising until February.  The White House task force is looking at the whole picture (health, economics, election, etc) and apparently forced a compromise (end of October).   But what will change between now and October 31?  COVID is not going away soon.  The Governor of Florida has just opened up his State to nearly pre-COVID rules (100% occupancy in bars, clubs, restaurants).  One might assume that this latest step in Florida will lead to a surge in new COVID cases in the next few weeks which will be a new factor later in October when the CDC has to again deal with their "No Sail" order.

 

Reasonable speculation is that there will be no cruising in US Ports for at least the remainder of 2020!  We had already (a few weeks ago) changed our Dec 2020 MSC cruise until a similar cruise in Oct 2021.  At the time our thinking was that all the 2020 cruises would eventually get cancelled and we wanted to snag one of the few remaining YC cabins for our preferred itinerary in 2021.  Now it appears more then likely that our hunch was correct.  These "rolling cancellations" caused by the CDC is just not a good way for most folks to plan travel.  It also creates a huge problem for MSC and other cruise lines who need sufficient lead time to position ships, crew, handle supply logistics, update marine inspections, etc.   Where does that leave passengers and cruise lines?  In a world of hurt :(.

 

Hank                                                                                      

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1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

There is a lot of pressure (from cruise lines, South Florida's governments, cruisers, etc) to get the cruise industry opened up.  From the CDC's perspective the COVID issues have yet to be satisfactorily addressed and this has been expressed by their recommendation to halt cruising until February.  The White House task force is looking at the whole picture (health, economics, election, etc) and apparently forced a compromise (end of October).   

 

Hank                                                                                      

 

What Pence did was take the decision away from the CDC.  If you believe the CDC is acting only in the best interest of the country (I don't), they would not allow cruising until there is no more virus.  This is not practical.  Pence will take a common sense approach.  Remember, if it were left up to Fauci, we would all be sitting in our rooms.

 

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

The Governor of Florida has just opened up his State to nearly pre-COVID rules (100% occupancy in bars, clubs, restaurants).  One might assume that this latest step in Florida will lead to a surge in new COVID cases in the next few weeks which will be a new factor later in October when the CDC has to again deal with their "No Sail

 

Hank                                                                                      

 

We heard the same thing when DeSantis forced the schools to open.  All the kids were going to get it.  There have been less infections from school for kids than before the schools were open.  Strangely, the infections in total for the state have reduced drastically with the opening of school.  Just a coincidence.

 

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

 

 

Reasonable speculation is that there will be no cruising in US Ports for at least the remainder of 2020!  

 

Hank                                                                                      

 

I disagree.  I think in the Friday meeting Pence will tell the industry that they can resume in Nov if they stick to the guidelines that were submitted.  Maybe on a probation type arrangement, where the cruise lines that don't follow the rules get shut down.  The "rolling cancellations" were caused by a bureaucracy that could care less how it affects the rest of the country.

 

Just my opinion.

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My opinion lies somewhere in the middle between @KennyFla and @Hlitner. I do agree that Vice President Pence's Team will take a more holistic approach to resuming cruising. As long as the plans put forth by NCL/RCL make address the CDC concerns, I am  leaning toward the team allowing for a 2020 restart (maybe not November 1st); BUT..... I see the 2020 cruises as very limited/controlled. Maybe one or two sailings per cruise line.  3-4 days maximum with no back-to-back options. Minimal ports (perhaps only private islands). Reduced capacity. Reduced amenities on-board. In other words, cruise ships may be allowed to  tip their toe in the sand.

 

But it's a start!! I am more optimistic today than I have been in many months. 

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I want to keep it apolitical while also acknowledging that politics play a role.  VP Pence chairs a relatively large COVID Task Force which meets on a regular basis and is central for a lot of decision-making re COVID.  If one believes the published stories, it is this Task Force that pushed the CDC into its current extension.   I thought it was interesting that the CDC apparently wanted to use Feb 15 which would have been a few weeks into the next administration.  If Trump were to get reelected things would likely continue along current thinking.  But if Biden were to win he has indicated (numerous times) that he would "follow the science" and "listen to the experts."  Under that scenario it is possible that the CDC would simply extend their NO SAIL order until such time as there was a safe/effective vaccine in common use.   Since the cruise lines now find themselves in a desperate situation (business wise) I could see them quickly adopting a mandatory vaccination policy as a way of satisfying the CDC.  

 

What this would mean is that cruising from US Ports might not happen until we are well into 2021 and that assumes that a vaccine is approved and taken to market.  This cruise lover does not even want to consider what would happen if there is no vaccine.

 

Hank

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Has anyone else noticed that the CDC has, so far, not posted anything on their own web site about extending the No Sail order beyond Sept 30.    Yesterday, Axios reported that the order was extended to Oct 31 and other news publications (such as USA Today) picked up that store from Axios.  The latest Cruise Critic news story talks about "rumors" but is careful not to give any official date.  So did the CDC extend the date until Oct 31 or not!  Who knows?

 

Hank

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2 hours ago, KennyFla said:

From the article:

 

"Recent outbreaks on cruise ships overseas provide current evidence that cruise ship travel continues to transmit and amplify the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19,—even when ships sail at reduced passenger capacities—and would likely spread the infection  into U.S. communities if passenger operations were to resume prematurely in the United States."

 

 " Recent passenger voyages in foreign countries continue to have outbreaks, despite cruise ship operators having extensive health and safety protocols to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on board and spread to communities where passengers disembark. "

 

This is just not true.  I have lost all faith that the CDC is not biased in this matter.

"Recent passenger voyages in foreign countries continue to have outbreaks, despite cruise ship operators having extensive health and safety protocols to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on board and spread to communities where passengers disembark."

 

Which ones? Certainly not MSC or Costa or TUI. Maybe they're talking about the Hurtigruten ship, so that's fair, but that was also about 2 months ago and things have clearly improved. Alright, this is where I call out the CDC for acting like a government bully that thinks they can unilaterally shut down a $53 billion industry (just in Florida, mind you) because, in their opinion, and apparently relying on cherrypicked data, "it's still not safe." Time for the White House to step in and take over. Interestingly, I read an article on the NY Times website this morning that the CDC director was afraid he was gonna get fired over the recommendation to extend the No Sail Order until February. Well, maybe he should be fired, and then he'll find out what it's like for the 100,000s of cruise industry workers who've lost THEIR jobs.

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In response to the extended no sail order, Carnival just cancelled all cruises through 2020 with the exception of a few sailing from PC and Miami. "While operations from Miami and Port Canaveral in November and December are still not certain, Carnival said, it is focusing its initial return to service from those two homeports, whenever that might occur."

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23586-carnival-cancels-slate-of-november-and-december-cruises.html

 

Tomorrow (Friday, October 2nd) is a big day in the cruise industry. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

Tomorrow (Friday, October 2nd) is a big day in the cruise industry. 

 

 

 

The meeting scheduled for today has been postponed indefinitely:

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23596-cruise-lines-white-house-meeting-postponed.html

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1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

The meeting scheduled for today has been postponed indefinitely:

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23596-cruise-lines-white-house-meeting-postponed.html

 

Thanks for posting the news.  Not good news for the industry and those ashore or afloat who are/have been employees of the industry.  No holiday cruises for 2020, I am 99.99% certain.

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18 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

it was always a speculative, rumor laden article.  Stick with the CDC website news feed for the facts

 

Are you implying that Cruise Industry News publishes speculative and rumor laden articles?

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1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Are you implying that Cruise Industry News publishes speculative and rumor laden articles?

Did you read all of the hedging language in the first article?   I didn’t bother reading the second article since the first did not meet commonly accepted journalism standards    Pure conjecture and speculation based on shady “sources” 

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51 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Did you read all of the hedging language in the first article?   I didn’t bother reading the second article since the first did not meet commonly accepted journalism standards    Pure conjecture and speculation based on shady “sources” 

 

Yes, I read all that was was published most recently.  Since I was not a journalism major and not familiar with "commonly accepted journalism standards", I am not familiar with what those standards might be.  However, after having been a subscriber to Cruise Industry News for a very long time, I have much confidence in their reporting and in their access to cruise industry information than I have.  

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