Great Barrington Declaration, lets get back to Cruising!!

[broberts]

10 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Has anyone calculated the death rate (as a % of total infected) for periods of March to May against June through October.

 

Looking at the graphs and stats from WorldoMeter their is a definite difference with a far lower death rate since June.  Sone of this is that we have figured out how to treat Covid with a lot more success, we are testing a lot more and therefore picking up on a lot of milder cases, we are better protecting the vulnerable and there were a few reports that the virus has actually been weakening.

...

 

I suspect the mortality rate may once again increase as case numbers increase. Some states are already worried about an imminent overwhelming of hospital resources. 

[time4u2go]

2 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

I suspect the mortality rate may once again increase as case numbers increase. Some states are already worried about an imminent overwhelming of hospital resources. 

Also it's not just about mortality rate.  There's a lot of unknowns regarding long-term effects.  Some people are experiencing difficulties months after having the virus.

[CT Sean]

8 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

The declaration is written by eminent experts that disagree with those you have chosen to believe in - Their report is far from bunk

 

Except it isn't 

 

"The declaration was authored by Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University. It was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian think tank that is part of a Koch-funded network of organizations associated with climate change denial.

"

Dr Gupta is an epidemiologist, the other 2 are not.  Their position is contrary to who knows how many other experts around the world.  What, besides your confirmation bias, makes the opinion of these 3 valid an the rest of the world invalid?

 

Pick any topic ever and you'll be able to find a couple experts going against the scientific mainstream - that doesn't make them right.  Back in the 70's the lead industry has no problem finding experts to testify that pumping lead into the air via burning leaded gas was safe.  I'm sure one can still find experts that will claim wearing a seatbelt is more dangerous than not. I bet there's even a doctor or two out there that will claim a healing crystal is more than just a pretty rock.  That doesn't make any of these cases true.

 

[compman9]

3 hours ago, broberts said:

 

Illustrates fundamental misconceptions of COVID-19.

 

A single individual that does not live in total isolation from all other humans all the time cannot avoid exposure. 

 

Very healthy individuals with no pre existing conditions have and can died from COVID-19. Being fit and healthy does not provide protection from contracting the disease.

 

People that consider themselves fit and healthy can unknowingly spread COVID-19.

 

More than 40% of the US population has at least one health factor that may put them at risk should they contract COVID-19.

 

While percentage deaths and hospitalization are low the actual numbers of human beings turn out to be quite large.

 

it is very common for people to say someone doesn't understand something or use the classic passive aggressive phrase 'misconception' when they disagree with them

 

Fewer than 400 fit and healthy people under 65 have died of covid in the UK

 

That is not worth an extra trillion of debt and the heaven knows how many young people whose lives are now ruined by governments using the same approach now as they used in March when so much more is known now

 

 

[compman9]

1 hour ago, CT Sean said:

Except it isn't 

 

"The declaration was authored by Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University. It was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian think tank that is part of a Koch-funded network of organizations associated with climate change denial.

 

"

Dr Gupta is an epidemiologist, the other 2 are not.  Their position is contrary to who knows how many other experts around the world.  What, besides your confirmation bias, makes the opinion of these 3 valid an the rest of the world invalid?

 

Pick any topic ever and you'll be able to find a couple experts going against the scientific mainstream - that doesn't make them right.  Back in the 70's the lead industry has no problem finding experts to testify that pumping lead into the air via burning leaded gas was safe.  I'm sure one can still find experts that will claim wearing a seatbelt is more dangerous than not. I bet there's even a doctor or two out there that will claim a healing crystal is more than just a pretty rock.  That doesn't make any of these cases true.

 

 

So you are using your confirmation bias to presume I have confirmation bias - Okay

 

How many epidemiologists have signed the Great Barrington Declaration?

 

How many public servants across the western world, whose finances are not affected in the slightest, are ruining young, fit and healthy peoples lives?

[compman9]

2 hours ago, John Reid said:

It seems that you are living proof of that statement.

 

I am happy to debate politely here with anyone, but come on, that's just childish

[HBE4]

2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Has anyone calculated the death rate (as a % of total infected) for periods of March to May against June through October.

 

Looking at the graphs and stats from WorldoMeter their is a definite difference with a far lower death rate since June.  Sone of this is that we have figured out how to treat Covid with a lot more success, we are testing a lot more and therefore picking up on a lot of milder cases, we are better protecting the vulnerable and there were a few reports that the virus has actually been weakening.

 

Agree with what you said above.  Also, there is growing evidence that wearing a mask reduces the amount of viral load one is exposed to. So while a mask is not 100% protection, it may make the difference between a mild case vs severe case of Covid-19.

 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88692 

 

"Cruise ship passengers who embarked from the coast of Argentina in mid-March were unaware that they were living in a COVID-19 hotspot for more than a week after the ship departed.

The reason why these passengers were oblivious? Because a majority of the cruise ship's cases were asymptomatic.

Researchers are now pointing to this cruise ship outbreak, in which all passengers were provided surgical masks, as evidence that universal masking may result in a higher proportion of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. Other outbreaks of mostly asymptomatic cases where widespread masking was implemented, in places like jails and meatpacking plants, provide epidemiological data that masks could reduce viral inoculum -- and as a result, decrease the severity of illness.

 

https://www.axios.com/viral-load-dose-coronavirus-246b334d-5420-488d-a1b1-ec9a39c55f58.html

 

Outbreak investigations show that where there's universal masking of a population, the severity of disease goes down.

 

Some researchers suggest a decline in death rate and the rise in asymptomatic cases in the U.S. this summer — both coming at a time when mask-wearing became more common — indicate reducing the dose of the virus may reduce the severity of disease.

 

"It's very interesting that it seems like it's correlating with masking, this lower rate of severe illness," says Gandhi, adding that the hypothesis remains unproven but has some growing evidence behind it.

 

[broberts]

1 hour ago, compman9 said:

 

it is very common for people to say someone doesn't understand something or use the classic passive aggressive phrase 'misconception' when they disagree with them

 

Fewer than 400 fit and healthy people under 65 have died of covid in the UK

 

That is not worth an extra trillion of debt and the heaven knows how many young people whose lives are now ruined by governments using the same approach now as they used in March when so much more is known now

 

 

 

So detail please how you would keep all the high risk people safe without sacrificing this mythical £1,000,000,000,000.

[Bloodgem]

2 hours ago, compman9 said:

Fewer than 400 fit and healthy people under 65 have died of covid in the UK

Please link the source of your information.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Bloodgem

[John Reid]

2 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

I am happy to debate politely here with anyone, but come on, that's just childish

 Debate? With facts like these to counter: 

"It seems citizens of the world are expecting governments to punish healthy people and wreck economies so that they can absolve themselves of personal responsibility"?

 

Childish? You actually think you personal and shallow interpretation of the world view is the world view?

 

I actually do want to apologize. I am sorry that I am so old that I fought in the Vietnam War. I'm sorry I lived to reach 71 years of age. I'm sorry that though I take good physical care, 71 takes a toll. I guess all people of Logan's Run-age or above should just throw in the towel for your perceived view. 

 

"Punish healthy people."  "Wreck economies" Yep, I'm sure that's the thought prevalent in the world today.

Who writes your material?

 

Excuse me; I have to contact Dr. Kevorkian now.

 

 

[John&LaLa]

4 hours ago, time4u2go said:

Also it's not just about mortality rate.  There's a lot of unknowns regarding long-term effects.  Some people are experiencing difficulties months after having the virus.

 

Key word - unknown

[Lou33]

14 hours ago, compman9 said:

It seems citizens of the world are expecting governments to punish healthy people and wreck economies so that they can absolve themselves of personal responsibility

 

The world has gone completely mad

 

The virus and the economy go hand in hand.  If the virus is out of control, so will the economy.  If the virus is first brought under control, things can safely open.  It can be done.  Taiwan is an excellent example https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/21/asia/taiwan-model-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

 

Many other countries are also doing very well.  Their leaders didn't blame it on China and they didn't need to.  They didn't lie about how serious it is.  They didn't "play it down".  They united their citizens instead of dividing them.  They listen to the most qualified health experts instead of promoting herd immunity.   Their countries are practically COVID free and things are getting back to normal there.  

[Lou33]

9 hours ago, crewsweeper said:

The death toll, while serious and sad, is far below the early model projections. 

 

Who projected or even imagined that there would be 8,000,000+ cases and 220,000+ deaths in the USA back in March or April?   I had seen early projections that the death toll could be millions if we did absolutely nothing.  But that's what the promoters of herd immunity want us to do.  Open everything now, and don't bother wearing a mask.  We don't even know for sure if previously infected people have immunity, and if they do, how long it would last.  

[chipmaster]

42 minutes ago, Lou33 said:

 

The virus and the economy go hand in hand.  If the virus is out of control, so will the economy.  If the virus is first brought under control, things can safely open.  It can be done.  Taiwan is an excellent example https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/21/asia/taiwan-model-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

 

Many other countries are also doing very well.  Their leaders didn't blame it on China and they didn't need to.  They didn't lie about how serious it is.  They didn't "play it down".  They united their citizens instead of dividing them.  They listen to the most qualified health experts instead of promoting herd immunity.   Their countries are practically COVID free and things are getting back to normal there.  

 

Indeed, you can't have an robust economy with a pandemic, anyone who thinks they can ignore a pandemic and the economy can hum along is living in a alternative reality, but social media has really made that so easy.

[Olympian]

2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Indeed, you can't have an robust economy with a pandemic, anyone who thinks they can ignore a pandemic and the economy can hum along is living in a alternative reality, but social media has really made that so easy.

Do you look into anything at any depth? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu  Seems the Spanish Flue Pandemic did nothing to stop the roaring 20's.

[njkruzer]

1 hour ago, Olympian said:

Do you look into anything at any depth? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu  Seems the Spanish Flue Pandemic did nothing to stop the roaring 20's.

Spanish flu pretty much ended in 1919.  Was also seasonal.   This isn't. 

[broberts]

1 minute ago, njkruzer said:

Spanish flu pretty much ended in 1919.  Was also seasonal.   This isn't. 

 

The H1N1 Influenza A outbreak in 1918 managed to kill over 6,000 NYC residents in 1920. Almost twice the number as killed by the first wave in 1918.

 

H1N1 Influenza A is still around. Witness the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic.

[John&LaLa]

13 minutes ago, njkruzer said:

Spanish flu pretty much ended in 1919.  Was also seasonal.   This isn't. 

 

Doesn't look seasonal to me

[compman9]

11 hours ago, broberts said:

 

So detail please how you would keep all the high risk people safe without sacrificing this mythical £1,000,000,000,000.

 

It is not my job or any government's job to continue to keep people safe from this virus via incredible limits on freedoms, when so much more is known.

 

Everybody now has all the information they need to keep themselves safe.

 

My mother is at extreme risk and has not gone out for 9 months. She washes all her food wrappers and opens the door to no-one - She believes it is her job and no-one else's to keep herself safe from this virus now she is equipped with the right information for her safety. We do all we can to keep her spirits up with zoom calls daily - That is it. That is all anyone can do. 

 

It is the world's government's job to get a vaccine as soon as possible, and to help the most at risk with as much support as healthy citizens would sanction.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by compman9
Addition

[compman9]

10 hours ago, Bloodgem said:

Please link the source of your information.

 

NHS Government website

 

Clear and evident for all to see

 

Help yourself

 

The fact you are not aware of this is a sad indictment of the media scaremongering and the lack of personal responsibility of citizens to do their own research

[compman9]

10 hours ago, John Reid said:

 Debate? With facts like these to counter: 

"It seems citizens of the world are expecting governments to punish healthy people and wreck economies so that they can absolve themselves of personal responsibility"?

 

Childish? You actually think you personal and shallow interpretation of the world view is the world view?

 

I actually do want to apologize. I am sorry that I am so old that I fought in the Vietnam War. I'm sorry I lived to reach 71 years of age. I'm sorry that though I take good physical care, 71 takes a toll. I guess all people of Logan's Run-age or above should just throw in the towel for your perceived view. 

 

"Punish healthy people."  "Wreck economies" Yep, I'm sure that's the thought prevalent in the world today.

Who writes your material?

 

Excuse me; I have to contact Dr. Kevorkian now.

 

 

 

People are allowed a different perspective to you.

Your opinion is no more valid than mine.

This is how debate works.

 

I offered you an opportunity to debate politely, but you have doubled-down on your rudeness.

Again, you are welcome to do this. 

It still does not make your right, or your arguments any more valid than mine.

 

90% of all UK hospital appointments were cancelled during the summer.

This will lead to more deaths than Covid will be responsible for.

And, after the covid crisis, the UK would have run up so much debt, there will be even more deaths from lack of investment.

Your comments suggest you are happy for this trade off as long as government's take responsibility for keeping all 71 year olds safe (especially you, because you believe earned it) instead.

It would be contradictory to try to hold both opinions.

 

I am very pleased Cruise Critic have allowed these posts, despite some of the abrasive and unnecessary comments. In a world event such as this, I think it is vital for international discussion and exchange of viewpoints on messageboards with people with shared interests and commonalities.

 

[Bloodgem]

3 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

NHS Government website

 

Clear and evident for all to see

 

Help yourself

 

The fact you are not aware of this is a sad indictment of the media scaremongering and the lack of personal responsibility of citizens to do their own research

Thank you for confirming that your figure of 400 is fictional. 

If your figure was actually real you would have no problem posting a link to the website you got your figure from.  

 

I could quote you the figures that appears on the Office of National Statistics website but you will claim that the figures do not differentiate between those that are fit and health and those that are not. 

 

From other posters here the website I use to keep me informed about Covid figures in England:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26#deaths.

 

For those that do not want to click the link according to the ONS; England and Wales have had 5681 Covid deaths for under 65's. This figure does not include Scotland or Northern Ireland. 

Which is slightly more that the 400 that compman9 likes to post

 

[nomad098]

1 hour ago, Bloodgem said:

Thank you for confirming that your figure of 400 is fictional. 

If your figure was actually real you would have no problem posting a link to the website you got your figure from.  

 

I could quote you the figures that appears on the Office of National Statistics website but you will claim that the figures do not differentiate between those that are fit and health and those that are not. 

 

From other posters here the website I use to keep me informed about Covid figures in England:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26#deaths.

 

For those that do not want to click the link according to the ONS; England and Wales have had 5681 Covid deaths for under 65's. This figure does not include Scotland or Northern Ireland. 

Which is slightly more that the 400 that compman9 likes to post

 

 

This is just as disingenuous to the truth as you claim compman9 is being. The ONS processes raw data and is only as good as the data it receives. It is only when you drill down on this data and take other factors into account that the larger picture emerges.

 

1) These are deaths where covid-19 was indicated on a death certificate not the actual cause of death.

2) These figures do not take into account comorbidities

3) These figures do not take into account individuals who contracted covid-19 whilst in hospital for other life threatening reasons.

4) Even the experts accept that a small proportion of deaths are misdiagnosed as covid-19 related without a test. 

5) Daily deaths are added for any reason within 28 days of a positive covid-19 test

6) There is anecdotal evidence from doctors, nurses and other health professionals especially at the beginning of the epidemic of the misclassification of cause of death.

 

It will not be evident for a long while what the true impact of covid-19 will be and even longer for the impacts of the actions taken by government to control this virus will result in.

 

 

 

 

   

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by nomad098

[CT Sean]

21 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

So you are using your confirmation bias to presume I have confirmation bias - Okay

 

How many epidemiologists have signed the Great Barrington Declaration?

 

How many public servants across the western world, whose finances are not affected in the slightest, are ruining young, fit and healthy peoples lives?

That is not what confirmation bias means.

 

I am under no obligation to verify the signatories of the declaration - I'm not the one attempting to claim its legitimacy. The fact that it includes such notable experts as:

Mr Banana Rama

Dr Johnny Fartpants

Dr Person Fakename

Professor Notaf Uckingclue

Prof Cominic Dummings

Tells me all I need to know about the validity of any name on the list.

 

Your final question warrants no response. If you'd like to present data, feel free to do so. Otherwise it's a dramatic statement based on nothing.

[TheMastodon]

On 10/11/2020 at 1:55 AM, broberts said:

What the declaration doesn't mention is that to reach herd immunity would likely result in some 2,000,000 deaths in the U.S. alone.

 

What the declaration glosses over is the actual cost of providing real protection for all of the at risk people. Consider that almost 40% of U.S. adults are obese, just one of the many COVID risk factors.

 

What the declaration glosses over is that adults and children with no preconditions can die from the disease. 

 

How many dead people are the signatories willing to accept. Will any of them volunteer?

 

 

Plz enlighten us how many children w/ no pre existing conditions have died from Covid19