The Cruise and Travel Industry is in a very bad place!

[SelectSys]

6 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

A lot of people afraid of the changes to come in travel. I know there will be some losers but perhaps this time to pause can also be a good way to re-evaluate the industry. Lets face it mass market tourism whilst it has increased the opportunity for travel it has also brought with it problems that can't be ignored forever. At the end of the day even without the pandemic the boom times would have hit an unsustaniable point. The fact that there are destinations that have literally become unlivable due to tourism points to a terrible imbalance. I love to travel but I also don't want to be contributing to something that is causing great negative impacts to a destination. I try my best to pick options that should be as positive an imapct as I can find but there are numerous destinations that are so geared to exploiting every nook and crany in the tourism industry that no option is really beneficial. Maybe this interruption to the tourism industry is what we need to bring forth the much needed changes to make this a sustainable and truely beneficial industry. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that something good comes out of this🤗.

 

I personally doubt the travel industry will change and I actually think mass travel will grow to new heights in the future.  I just can't see travel shrinking as the demand for leisure increases from the world's major population centers such as India, China and Africa.  To me, today's COVID impacts are likely just a small downward blip in what will likely be even more travel in the future.

 

The only things that may restrict this growth would be the ending of relatively liberal travel policies and/or reasonably priced transportation.  It could be that governments may decide (hopefully with the consent of the governed) to limit access to their countries - flights, ships, etc.  COVID is certainly a trial run of these types of restrictions.  Maybe these restrictions will persist for other reasons. 

 

Of course the net effect of restricting access will be an increasingly stratified leisure market with top tier locations only available to the relatively rich.  Actually I see prices trending higher regardless as more and more people compete for similar travel experiences.

 

BTW - I appreciate your desire/attempt to minimize the negative impacts of your travel.  I try to do this as well.

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by SelectSys

[sail7seas]

2 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

There are many factors which enable the stock market to fail to parallel the larger economy.   One reason why it is doing well is that people can borrow money very cheaply so they can participate — but more directly:  the fact that the US government is spending itself into a massive hole of debt is virtually certain to result in a loss of value for the dollar in the coming unavoidable cycle of inflation.  Owning a piece of the economy rather than a pile of dollars is one good way to protect yourself from the almost certain devaluation of those dollars.

 

 

Gold prices have increased appox.  500%

 

In  the current atmosphere,  I would be happy to 'sit on chunks  of gold'  safely stored in bank deposit boxes. 🙂

 

 

[navybankerteacher]

9 minutes ago, sail7seas said:

 

 

Gold prices have increased appox.  500%

 

In  the current atmosphere,  I would be happy to 'sit on chunks  of gold'  safely stored in bank deposit boxes. 🙂

 

 

Better to buy an ETF.   —- “GLD”. has reacted along with the underlying gold but is much more practical for the individual investor  than the physical metal —- which requires storage and, more important, is very costly/difficult to sell anywhere near market value because of assaying, handling, delivery, etc.

[SelectSys]

20 minutes ago, sail7seas said:

 

 

Gold prices have increased appox.  500%

 

In  the current atmosphere,  I would be happy to 'sit on chunks  of gold'  safely stored in bank deposit boxes. 🙂

 

 

 

Just don't sit on your gold too long.  Over the long haul gold hasn't really been the best store of wealth.  For the US the S&P has returned more than gold over the long haul.  

 

https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

[sfaaa]

Yeah, toilet papers seem to be a better bet.

[sverigecruiser]

1 hour ago, evandbob said:

  We have long lines at all of our food banks here in "wealthy" SW Florida, way longer than the line queued up for political events. 

 

The really poor people are thoose living in countries where there are no food banks.

 

(I know that Sweden is an exception from what I just said because as far as I know we have no food banks here and also no really poor people. Poverty is measured in a strange way so here people are considered poor if they can't buy Christmas gifts or travel abroad on their vacation.) 

[Mike981]

I moved my cruise to January 2022 and 50/50 if it will happen. Luckily we have a "smallish" deposit if we were to lose that. As others have stated, I have a certain level of confidence needed before I will cruise again. If masks are required, I need to know that it will be enforced. I don't want to see the conversation of chair hogs, moving to mask fails.

[Mike981]

18 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

The really poor people are thoose living in countries where there are no food banks.

 

(I know that Sweden is an exception from what I just said because as far as I know we have no food banks here and also no really poor people. Poverty is measured in a strange way so here people are considered poor if they can't buy Christmas gifts or travel abroad on their vacation.) 

 

Sound horrible. 🙂

[mnocket]

2 hours ago, evandbob said:

 

 Perhaps true if you quote just your one year old source.   5 others that are newer show higher rates: it all depends on who is doing the calculation, what method they use, what level of poverty (annual salary) is agreed to, the time of the survey, etc.  Sometimes we just have to accept a range as not many of these estimates are in agreement.

 

COVID has increased the % of folks living in poverty, 20 million were estimated to have lost their jobs, 10 million have so far gotten them back.  6 Million jobs have disappeared for good.  We have long lines at all of our food banks here in "wealthy" SW Florida, way longer than the line queued up for political events.  A quick google search shows 12 -15% national poverty ranges.

 

While we can quibble about the # of poor, up, down or whatever, no one I think can argue that the ultra rich have increased their vast wealth and widened the gap between them and even the semi rich, let alone your average worker.

 

With COVID rates rising again, expect more disappointing news and another delay in sailing resumption.

 

My source was the US Census Bureau.  It is current up to 2019 - they won't have 2020 data until 2021 for reasons that should be obvious.

 

It should also be noted that the middle class, as well as those in poverty, have seen improvements.  The median household income in 2019 increased 6.8% from 2018.

 

Sure Covid has thrown a wrench in the economy - it's what happens when you close things down in order to slow the spread of a virus.  This is an aberration and takes nothing away from the fact that up until the Covid disruption we have had 5 straight years of a decreasing poverty rate.  Put another way, the poverty rate in 2014 was 40% higher than it was in 2019.  This is something to celebrate. One hopes that once we get past the Covid disruption, we can resume this remarkable progress.

[c-boy]

1 hour ago, sfaaa said:

Yeah, toilet papers seem to be a better bet.

lol... I took a large position in Kimberly Clark 2nd. quarter 18' . who woulda thunk 🙄

[evandbob]

15 hours ago, mnocket said:

 

My source was the US Census Bureau.  It is current up to 2019 - they won't have 2020 data until 2021 for reasons that should be obvious.

 

It should also be noted that the middle class, as well as those in poverty, have seen improvements.  The median household income in 2019 increased 6.8% from 2018.

 

Sure Covid has thrown a wrench in the economy - it's what happens when you close things down in order to slow the spread of a virus.  This is an aberration and takes nothing away from the fact that up until the Covid disruption we have had 5 straight years of a decreasing poverty rate.  Put another way, the poverty rate in 2014 was 40% higher than it was in 2019.  This is something to celebrate. One hopes that once we get past the Covid disruption, we can resume this remarkable progress.

 

I don't think COVID's effect on our economy is just a wrench in the machinery that will go away soon or can be breezily dismissed as a temporary disruption.  I agree that we have had a growing economy since 2010, but COVID changed all that.  That's why I suggested using today's figures rather than the pre COVID ones. 

 

Already 6 million jobs have been permanently lost, and COVID is rapidly accelerating how we work and those changes have a good chance of becoming permanent. There's a new robot out that can flip burgers and handle other short order dishes; office space is becoming an anachronism, our daily work commutes no longer necessary so the auto industry will be affected, etc. etc. COVID will bring about a new, better economy {hopefully}, but only after we learn how to prevent or mitigate its effects.

 

Another year of COVID and most mass cruise lines will no longer be in business as we used to know them.  Bankrupt, reorganized, whatever.  

[Toofarfromthesea]

19 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

 

Of course the net effect of restricting access will be an increasingly stratified leisure market with top tier locations only available to the relatively rich.  Actually I see prices trending higher regardless as more and more people compete for similar travel experiences.

I'm not sure I agree with your price observation (or was it more of a prediction?  I wasn't sure, from your wording) .  After my 11/7/20 cruise was cancelled I booked a back to back Carib cruise for 9/2021 and a weeklong Carib for 1/2022.  Both were booked in the MSC Yacht Club which might not be considered top tier for folks on the Luxury Cruising board, but which is clearly upscale.  In booking these cruises I got the largest discounts off the 'i don't use a TA' website price I've ever gotten by a significant amount - and I've been used to a 9-10% discount. 

So while you may well be correct in the longer term, at the moment there are some amazing deals out there on upscale travel products.

[Toofarfromthesea]

18 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

The really poor people are thoose living in countries where there are no food banks.

 

(I know that Sweden is an exception from what I just said because as far as I know we have no food banks here and also no really poor people. Poverty is measured in a strange way so here people are considered poor if they can't buy Christmas gifts or travel abroad on their vacation.) 

 

You make an excellent point, namely that we look at poverty in relative terms.  It doesn't matter if the poor get richer, because we don't look at that, we focus on the rich/poor gap.

My millenial neice was shocked when I said, to her, that a person born today in the US (and the same is true of lots , but by no means all, nations) has it better than 99+% of all of the people who ever lived.  

Edited October 18, 2020 by Toofarfromthesea

[drsel]

 
I don't think COVID's effect on our economy is just a wrench in the machinery that will go away soon or can be breezily dismissed as a temporary disruption.  I agree that we have had a growing economy since 2010, but COVID changed all that.  That's why I suggested using today's figures rather than the pre COVID ones. 
 
Already 6 million jobs have been permanently lost, and COVID is rapidly accelerating how we work and those changes have a good chance of becoming permanent. There's a new robot out that can flip burgers and handle other short order dishes; office space is becoming an anachronism, our daily work commutes no longer necessary so the auto industry will be affected, etc. etc. COVID will bring about a new, better economy {hopefully}, but only after we learn how to prevent or mitigate its effects.
 
Another year of COVID and most mass cruise lines will no longer be in business as we used to know them.  Bankrupt, reorganized, whatever.  

*The Real Meaning of Poverty & Unemployment*

If you are making less than $3,000 a month, you have plenty of company, because about half of the US is in the exact same boat.

The Social Security Administration just released new wage statistics for 2019, and they are pretty startling. To me, the most alarming thing in the entire report is the fact that the median yearly wage was just $34,248.45 last year. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $34,248.45 in 2019, and half of all American workers made more than $34,248.45. That isn’t a whole lot of money. In fact, when you divide $34,248.45 by 12 you get just $2,854.05. Needless to say, it is not easy to survive in America today on just $2,854.05 a month, and this may help to explain why we have been seeing so many people fall out of the middle class in recent years.

And, of course, all of the figures are just for 2019. This year, we have seen more than 63 million Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits as the U.S. economy has imploded during this pandemic, and so the final wage numbers for 2020 could be quite a bit worse than the numbers for 2019 were. Please keep that in mind as you go through the rest of this article.

Once upon a time in America, a single income could easily support a middle class household in most cases, but those days are long gone.

The cost of living has been rising far faster than our paychecks have, and as a result many Americans have been working themselves to the bone just to survive financially from month to month.

To give you an idea of just how bad things have gotten, I would like to share with you some key statistics.

-32.26 percent of American workers made less than $20,000 last year.

-44.79 percent of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.

-56.46 percent of American workers made less than $40,000 last year.

-65.91 percent of American workers made less than $50,000 last year.

Today, the poverty level for a household of five in the United States is $30,680.

There are tens of millions of Americans who are referred to as “the working poor” because they are living in poverty even though they are employed and are working extremely hard. Some of you are working way more than 40 hours a week, and yet there never seems to be enough money at the end of the month.

And of course you never even started with $2,854.05 in the first place, because all sorts of taxes were taken out of your paycheck before you even got it.


We have an economy that works for those at the very top of the food chain, but pretty much everyone else is desperately trying to stay afloat.

And now we have entered an economic downturn during which tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were being used the real unemployment rate in the U.S. would be 26.9 percent right now, and that would rival the worst levels that we witnessed during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Others have come up with similar numbers. For example, Axios is reporting that the “true unemployment rate” in the United States is currently 26.1 percent…

[FredT]

Hmmmm.....  As for those "statistics"    

 

First,   They include all Americans of "working age"   That includes 18-22 year olds who are most probably still in school or living at home.

 

Second, They include any people who have "retired" but are still in the workforce....  ("Hey, I am bored and want to earn a bit of extra money")

 

Third, They include spouses who are not working by choice.  (Or are out on maternity leave, etc etc.) 

 

Fourth, They are looking at per capita income...  To measure true poverty, you have to measure HOUSEOLD income.  Two people making 25 K a year for a total of 50 K, AND living in middle America could be considered to be doing OK,   But two people living in NYC are undoubtedly on food stamps and in subsidized housing.  

 

Then there is the whole "what is poverty" part.   Here in the NY metropolitan area, anything under 150,000 a year is struggling, where I have a friend in Rockford Ill wo is living VERY well on a household income of 55,000.

 

We can argue any of these points,  but what I am trying to say is that wealth (and poverty) is totally subjective, and the statistics can be manipulated in SOOOOO many ways. 

[SelectSys]

4 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

I'm not sure I agree with your price observation (or was it more of a prediction? ...
So while you may well be correct in the longer term, at the moment there are some amazing deals out there on upscale travel products.

 

It was simply my prediction.  I agree there are currently deals to be had.  These will likely persist as long as uncertainty remains regarding cruising and travel in general.  My speculation is that once we get the "green light" to travel, prices will go higher as pent up demand certainly exists along with reduced capacity due to travel industry downsizing.

 

4 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

You make an excellent point, namely that we look at poverty in relative terms.  It doesn't matter if the poor get richer, because we don't look at that, we focus on the rich/poor gap.

My millenial neice was shocked when I said, to her, that a person born today in the US (and the same is true of lots , but by no means all, nations) has it better than 99+% of all of the people who ever lived.  

 

I agree with this.  My own experience with travel suggests that even the relative poor in the world's richest nations live well by global standards. I also believe that almost everyone on this board is likely in the upper few percent of all people currently alive on earth.  

 

 

 

[sfaaa]

If you are happy and at peace, wealth doesn't matter that much. Some people actually prefer to live a very simple, stress free  and spartan life.

[navybankerteacher]

7 hours ago, FredT said:

Hmmmm.....  As for those "statistics"    

 

First,   They include all Americans of "working age"   That includes 18-22 year olds who are most probably still in school or living at home.

 

Second, They include any people who have "retired" but are still in the workforce....  ("Hey, I am bored and want to earn a bit of extra money")

 

Third, They include spouses who are not working by choice.  (Or are out on maternity leave, etc etc.) 

 

Fourth, They are looking at per capita income...  To measure true poverty, you have to measure HOUSEOLD income.  Two people making 25 K a year for a total of 50 K, AND living in middle America could be considered to be doing OK,   But two people living in NYC are undoubtedly on food stamps and in subsidized housing.  

 

Then there is the whole "what is poverty" part.   Here in the NY metropolitan area, anything under 150,000 a year is struggling, where I have a friend in Rockford Ill wo is living VERY well on a household income of 55,000.

 

We can argue any of these points,  but what I am trying to say is that wealth (and poverty) is totally subjective, and the statistics can be manipulated in SOOOOO many ways. 

Very helpful input -- the makeup  of the American workers who go into those statistics needs to be understood:  a 17 year old high school student who might earn $2,000 a year baby sitting or bagging at a supermarket,  or the 76 year old pensioner who is a part time greeter at Walmart, the stay-at-home mom who makes a few thousand from Mary Kay or Tupperware salesare all cranked into the figures.  The only relevant measure is household income  - which then might be divided by the number in that household to get a per capita figure.

 

The well paid exec who might have three children and a stay at home wife earning $150,000 per year really counts as $30,000 per capita -- the same as the recent grad making $30,000 --- but probably paying a lot more in taxes.

Edited October 19, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[getting older slowly]

I fine it interesting... all this talk of wealth.....

cruising and air travel is available and affordable to the masses now a days

 

Like the 747 and larger cruise ships... brought the market to the masses...

 

Which means   a lot of people can afford a cheap short cruise...... or flight

 

We are lucky.... lots of different cruise lines to cater to everybody tastes....

 

And the other thing this is a forum about cruising for all who are interesting in doing so, at what ever level they choose so..

 

 

Don

 

[SelectSys]

4 hours ago, sfaaa said:

If you are happy and at peace, wealth doesn't matter that much. Some people actually prefer to live a very simple, stress free  and spartan life.

 

Choosing to live a spartan life is much different than being poor.  Wealth or being in a wealthy country matters greatly for things like health care.

 

As of 2018, the World Bank suggests that 1/2 the World's population lives on less than  $5.50 /day.  I am not saying these people aren't happy, just that they are extremely vulnerable to any problem.

 

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day

 

My own view on wealth is that while one can't buy happiness, possessing wealth can certainly alleviate a lot of uncomfortable situations. 

[ldubs]

5 hours ago, sfaaa said:

If you are happy and at peace, wealth doesn't matter that much. Some people actually prefer to live a very simple, stress free  and spartan life.

 

I have always agreed that peace of mind trumps wealth.   

[ilikeanswers]

7 minutes ago, ldubs said:

I have always agreed that peace of mind trumps wealth.   

 

Not having to worry about the bills brings a lot of peace to the mind 😄

[ldubs]

9 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Not having to worry about the bills brings a lot of peace to the mind 😄

 

So true!  Haha.    Many live within their means who are not considered "wealthy".  Though, in reality if they live happy lives then they truly are wealthy.       

[GrJ Berkshire]

But the worry is that like the 747 planes being pensioned off, as no longer economic that Cruise liners will go the same way. You do have to think how many will see off this pandemic or go under on the way to the breakers yards. If no cruising until after Easter 2021 - so a year+ without income - how many companies will pull Through ?

[evandbob]

8 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

I have always agreed that peace of mind trumps wealth.   

 

 

Indeed! And one issue that can contribute to peace of mind is good health.  I'll take health over wealth any time.  Which explains why I'm in no rush to resume cruising or travel.