COVID-19 Surging Across Europe

[bikerunner]

53 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

Yesterday we reported 60,000 new cases. We have 330 million people. France reported 52,000 new cases and they have 65 million people. Belgium is at almost 20,000 cases and they have 11 million people. Now go ahead and keep listening to US media that tells you we're worst off than anyone else out there..

Hence I dont have network tv got rid of it years ago.  It is definitely political motivated and slanted to network views.  I see the up to date numbers every day from reports from the hospital infectious disease dept.  Completely agree with your points and how it is slanted one way or another in the US. 

[DaCruiseBug]

1 minute ago, bikerunner said:

Hence I dont have network tv got rid of it years ago.  It is definitely political motivated and slanted to network views.  I see the up to date numbers every day from reports from the hospital infectious disease dept.  Completely agree with your points and how it is slanted one way or another in the US. 

 

I just look on here:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si

[Ex-Airbalancer]

If you look at deaths per million most of the riches are doing the worst 

[Ride-The-Waves]

5 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

When the vaccine becomes available, I'll be the first in line.  If it helps to go cruising, so much the better but the real purpose of getting the vaccine is to start the journey toward a "normalish" life once again.  We will still need to wear masks for a while and maintain social distance but the vaccine will help reduce the stress level on an individual basis.  

"First in line" will be the medical professionals, military, first responders, police at all levels, etc.  Last will be folks like us who just want to travel...  Not a high priority.

[DaCruiseBug]

2 hours ago, Airbalancer said:

If you look at deaths per million most of the riches are doing the worst 

 

The numbers are reported by each individual government. It's up to you to determine if you think countries like Iran, Ecuador, Armenia etc even have the resources to report accurate numbers. The reality is that only in the "rich" countries are there enough resources to have numbers even remotely accurate.

[Ride-The-Waves]

2 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The numbers are reported by each individual government. It's up to you to determine if you think countries like Iran, Ecuador, Armenia etc even have the resources to report accurate numbers. The reality is that only in the "rich" countries are there enough resources to have numbers even remotely accurate.

"Rich" countries, such asa the US, have political reasons to misreport and under-report numbers.  In Florida the governor stated he directed a "recount" of COVID related deaths since he personally believed they were too high.  On the other hand the CDC has stated that the numbers are about 50 percent low based on expected deaths.  Many of your "non-rich" countries do a better and more accurate job of reporting and report based on WHO guidelines.

[nocl]

2 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The numbers are reported by each individual government. It's up to you to determine if you think countries like Iran, Ecuador, Armenia etc even have the resources to report accurate numbers. The reality is that only in the "rich" countries are there enough resources to have numbers even remotely accurate.

Even in the rich countries estimates are that there is undercounting this is due to the asymptomatic cases (no reason to test unless notified of close contact with someone testing positive), mild cases where the individual does not get tested, groups such as undocumented immigrants in the US that don't get tested because they do not want risk that their status might be noticed, etc.  

 

Back in June in the US it was estimated to be 5 to 10X the reported counts.  Today it may still be as high as 5X.

[DaCruiseBug]

31 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

"Rich" countries, such asa the US, have political reasons to misreport and under-report numbers.  In Florida the governor stated he directed a "recount" of COVID related deaths since he personally believed they were too high.  On the other hand the CDC has stated that the numbers are about 50 percent low based on expected deaths.  Many of your "non-rich" countries do a better and more accurate job of reporting and report based on WHO guidelines.

 

Recounting Covid deaths doesn't change the numbers...unless they were inaccurate to begin with. The numbers are reported by each county in the US and then compiled and a statewide number is populated. Reports out of Europe are estimating the numbers could be up to 60% higher so every country is probably off. But the reality is that someone that gets sick in a village in Iran has a very hard time actually getting tested. Whereas here in the US I can drive to the parking lot at the mall and be tested in about 5 minutes...just like I did last week...and have the results 48 hours later.

[ipeeinthepool]

2 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

"First in line" will be the medical professionals, military, first responders, police at all levels, etc.  Last will be folks like us who just want to travel...  Not a high priority.

 

Old folks will also be near the top.  I'll be first in line as soon as it's my turn.

[Gracie115]

29 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Old folks will also be near the top.  I'll be first in line as soon as it's my turn.

 

I'll be right behind you!!!
 

[Ride-The-Waves]

8 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

No, actually flying is NOT dangerous.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

"a new study finds that when masks are worn there is only a 0.003% chance particles from a passenger can enter the passenger's breathing space who is sitting beside them"

 

Let's stop with the fear mongering.

That information has been debunked by its author.  It was published by IATA - International Air Transport Association.  Its like having a cigarette company claim the smoking causes no harm.

 

From the author:

 

“IATA is taking it to an extreme saying there’s ‘little’ risk in flying,” says David Freedman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Alabama whose study is cited in the IATA report. “What they want is to throw this number on the risk of flying … and we don’t know what that risk is yet. I’m not saying the risk is high, but there is some risk. It just looks like masks help a lot.”

The bottom line, Freedman says, is that cases linked to air travel are very difficult to scientifically prove because passengers are not usually monitored after flying and therefore are not tallied if they become sick. It’s also nearly impossible to determine whether sick passengers picked up the virus on a plane as opposed to in an airport or on the way there, he says. “And if you can’t prove it, it doesn’t end up in a journal."

[hcat]

11 hours ago, Cruise a holic said:

Actually, covid seems to be getting worse in many US states.  I understand that most of us are getting covid fatigue, but it is important that we stay put for now.  Flying can be dangerous, and airports not great- going into a high risk states not a good idea. We need to keep the faith and until we all are successfully vaccinated stay home.  They were able to find a successful immunization for polio, DPT, etc.  We need to be diligent for the sake of ourselves and others.  Listen to science.

We came home to NY in Feb for birth of grandchild.. Our flights back to Fla in June  to  check our place were cancelled.  We have a great home watcher in Florida and great neighbors, but we really need to spend time at our place there. 

 

It's  getting dark and cold in NY..Time for snowbirds to fly south,  Once there we will lay low..just like we have done  here since March.  Nothing reckles planned. If we feel  unsafe we will head home but hope all will be well!   

[Cruise a holic]

28 minutes ago, hcat said:

We came home to NY in Feb for birth of grandchild.. Our flights back to Fla in June  to  check our place were cancelled.  We have a great home watcher in Florida and great neighbors, but we really need to spend time at our place there. 

 

It's  getting dark and cold in NY..Time for snowbirds to fly south,  Once there we will lay low..just like we have done  here since March.  Nothing reckles planned. If we feel  unsafe we will head home but hope all will be well!   

Wish you well!

[DaCruiseBug]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

That information has been debunked by its author.  It was published by IATA - International Air Transport Association.  Its like having a cigarette company claim the smoking causes no harm.

 

From the author:

 

“IATA is taking it to an extreme saying there’s ‘little’ risk in flying,” says David Freedman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Alabama whose study is cited in the IATA report. “What they want is to throw this number on the risk of flying … and we don’t know what that risk is yet. I’m not saying the risk is high, but there is some risk. It just looks like masks help a lot.”

The bottom line, Freedman says, is that cases linked to air travel are very difficult to scientifically prove because passengers are not usually monitored after flying and therefore are not tallied if they become sick. It’s also nearly impossible to determine whether sick passengers picked up the virus on a plane as opposed to in an airport or on the way there, he says. “And if you can’t prove it, it doesn’t end up in a journal."

 

The author doesn't debunk anything. He actually says "i'm not saying the risk is high". The poster I quoted said flying is dangerous...and it really isn't.

[markeb]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

That information has been debunked by its author.  It was published by IATA - International Air Transport Association.  Its like having a cigarette company claim the smoking causes no harm.

 

From the author:

 

“IATA is taking it to an extreme saying there’s ‘little’ risk in flying,” says David Freedman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Alabama whose study is cited in the IATA report. “What they want is to throw this number on the risk of flying … and we don’t know what that risk is yet. I’m not saying the risk is high, but there is some risk. It just looks like masks help a lot.”

The bottom line, Freedman says, is that cases linked to air travel are very difficult to scientifically prove because passengers are not usually monitored after flying and therefore are not tallied if they become sick. It’s also nearly impossible to determine whether sick passengers picked up the virus on a plane as opposed to in an airport or on the way there, he says. “And if you can’t prove it, it doesn’t end up in a journal."

Pretty sure those aren’t the same studies. The link you posted goes to a review article with no original research. And it’s in the Journal of Travel Medicine. 
 

I haven’t read the DARPA study, but it’s original research. It has plenty of caveats, but the press reports look like a very well done study. I suspect I know some of the people involved, and they’re very good at this sort of thing. They don’t say no risk, but that it’s very difficult with airflow and HEPA filtration. 

[LGW59]

29 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The author doesn't debunk anything. He actually says "i'm not saying the risk is high". The poster I quoted said flying is dangerous...and it really isn't.

Anytime one is in a large group or gathering, there is risk and/or some danger, certain situations will certainly have lower risk and flying may very well be one of those, but it is still there.

[ABoatNerd]

21 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The US news has a political agenda.

 

The reality is that the US has done some of the most testing of any modern country. Almost double what France and Germany have performed per capita. Since a vast majority of those that catch Covid do NOT have serious symptoms it's only reasonable to believe that the more you test the higher the positive rates you get.

 

We have been at around 50-60k cases per day now for at least 2-3 months. Nothing new...that's still where we are. There's some days it's only 40k and some days it goes up to 80k.

 

Yesterday we reported 60,000 new cases. We have 330 million people. France reported 52,000 new cases and they have 65 million people. Belgium is at almost 20,000 cases and they have 11 million people. Now go ahead and keep listening to US media that tells you we're worst off than anyone else out there...

 

I concur with your assessment DaCruiseBug. Canada is reporting significant increases in cases and our testing is lagging well behind the USA and our media loves to disparage the USA. A further complexity for the USA is that you have 51 states, a lot of different administrations at the state level with different approaches. Canada has only 10 provinces and 1 territory with very different approaches and outcomes.

 

The media reporting in the USA is not focused on comparative reality, it is only about the negative in everything, pathetic. 

This is very important to cruising as the cruising public receives info via the so called 4th estate. The constant negative bashing does not instill confidence in the American people and that impacts consumer choices.

 

Get R Going there USA!

[BigAl94]

12 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The author doesn't debunk anything. He actually says "i'm not saying the risk is high". The poster I quoted said flying is dangerous...and it really isn't.

Maybe not dangerous but carries additional risks https://www.irishpost.com/news/59-cases-of-covid-19-linked-to-single-flight-into-ireland-196341

[Ride-The-Waves]

12 hours ago, markeb said:

Pretty sure those aren’t the same studies. The link you posted goes to a review article with no original research. And it’s in the Journal of Travel Medicine. 
 

I haven’t read the DARPA study, but it’s original research. It has plenty of caveats, but the press reports look like a very well done study. I suspect I know some of the people involved, and they’re very good at this sort of thing. They don’t say no risk, but that it’s very difficult with airflow and HEPA filtration. 

 The risk remains high.  A study in Ireland from an actual 7-hour flight with tracing afterwards showed propagation of 59 cases of COVID-19 from a 7-hour flight that was at 17 percent capacity: 13 direct while on board and another 46 from post-flight contagion.  Flying remains a concern, especially for seniors and those with under-lying conditions.

 

A large national outbreak of COVID-19 linked to air travel, Ireland, summer 2020

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624

 

This is reality!

 

Of course, the airlines and their association (IATA) don't want you to know that...

Edited October 27, 2020 by Ride-The-Waves

[Ex-Airbalancer]

26 minutes ago, ABoatNerd said:

 

. Canada has only 10 provinces and 1 territory with very different approaches and outcomes.

There are 3 territories 

[Fouremco]

31 minutes ago, Airbalancer said:

There are 3 territories 

Thanks, @Airbalancer. Even my grandkids would have challenged that post.

[Ex-Airbalancer]

1 minute ago, Fouremco said:

Thanks, @Airbalancer. Even my grandkids would have challenged that post.

You are from Ottawa, wearing a Senators mask,  you have enough hardships in your life already 🤣

so you are forgiven for your mistake 😄

[Fouremco]

1 minute ago, Airbalancer said:

You are from Ottawa, wearing a Senators mask,  you have enough hardships in your life already 🤣

so you are forgiven for your mistake 😄

Hey, that wasn't my post with the incorrect count, that was someone from Hogtown. 

 

FWIW, they also had the wrong number of US states.

[phoenix_dream]

19 hours ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

The numbers are reported by each individual government. It's up to you to determine if you think countries like Iran, Ecuador, Armenia etc even have the resources to report accurate numbers. The reality is that only in the "rich" countries are there enough resources to have numbers even remotely accurate.

Exactly!  Even in the so called rich countries, there is debate that the numbers are accurate and how to count them properly.  To rely on this chart we would have to first, believe that all countries are honestly reporting.  Then we would have to believe that they were reporting accurately.  Then, as you state, we would have to take into consideration the rate of testing and its availability.  There are likely hundreds of thousands of non-reported cases in the more poor countries where the citizens do not have ready access to testing.  Then you would need to consider that in many countries there are a lot of asymptomatic people, percentage of which no one really knows,  Then you would have to take into account what types of testing is being used and its accuracy.  The list goes on and on and on.

[Miaminice]

On 10/26/2020 at 3:29 PM, DaCruiseBug said:

Yesterday we reported 60,000 new cases. We have 330 million people. France reported 52,000 new cases and they have 65 million people. Belgium is at almost 20,000 cases and they have 11 million people. Now go ahead and keep listening to US media that tells you we're worst off than anyone else out there...

 

While the current numbers stated above are correct, the real problem IMHO could be that history might repeat itself...

Numbers in Europe are going up. Also in Germany, which is where we live. However, since the past few months have shown that the US are a few weeks behind, I fear that the "second wave" will hit the US just the same. The 60k new cases might be a positive thing of the past then.

 

So if the significant difference between the US and most of Europe will be the same as it was a few months ago, namely the failure of a swift and adequate response in the US, history might repeat itself. 

Look at where most of Europe managed to flatten the first curve and then take a look at the curve in the US - it never flattened. None of us (US or Europe) can work wonders. However, the willingness to take action without having to fear a civil war (damatizing here) is much higher in Europe. If that remains the same with the "second wave" you can figure out what´s going to happen in the US (again).

Since my home and heart lies in both places - US and Europe - you can be darn sure that I hope I am wrong.
 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Miaminice