What is your expected return date to cruising?

[SelectSys]

All of the news on vaccines that have been disclosed over the last couple of weeks has raised my enthusiasm level and optimism that we'll be able to return to cruising within the next year or so.  

 

What is your personal guess?  Mine is the 2nd half of 2022, but I hope it is sooner!

 

Do you have any hard preconditions before which you won't travel - e.g., vaccine in wide distribution.  Also, do you think that with a good vaccine the onboard experience will largely be "normal" including onboard experience and shore excursion flexibility?

[d9704011]

As long as the CDC’s Conditional Sailing Order has been lifted (and not replaced with anything remotely like it) I’m likely OK to go.

[BSR]

I'm hoping for 2nd half of 2021.

[rkacruiser]

I respect your post, but the question is almost like "when do you expect to win the Publisher's Clearing House Sweepstakes"?

 

What we do not know tonight is not going to change any time soon.  

 

We can hope.  We can plan.  To put a "date" on that "hope" and find that it cannot be fulfilled--psychologically, is that a wise thing to do?  

 

2020 has been filled with so much disappointments for so many.  I don't need another one by making a "date" to return to cruising only to find:  it's not going to happen.  

[navybankerteacher]

Second half 2022 seems like a reasonable hope.

[SelectSys]

I was hoping people would click the survey question to get a sense of the distribution of planning dates.

[NantahalaCruiser]

28 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

I was hoping people would click the survey question to get a sense of the distribution of planning dates.

Then perhaps you should not have called it "your first COVID cruise."  We will never take a COVID cruise with the concern of what will happen when the first passenger or crew member comes down with a case of COVID; but we will take a cruise when COVID is no longer a concern.

[msmayor]

Well, my husband and I took first steps and booked a trip in March 2022.  Fully refundable deposit, and not a lot at risk - we used a future cruise certificate purchased back in 2018 for $100 each, so if we end up canceling the future cruise certificate just goes back into our account.   Final payment isn't due until December 2021, so plenty of time to decide.  

[sverigecruiser]

3 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

Do you have any hard preconditions before which you won't travel

 

No masks required. I can use one on the plane if I have to but I will not use one on the ship.

[lenquixote66]

3 hours ago, SelectSys said:

All of the news on vaccines that have been disclosed over the last couple of weeks has raised my enthusiasm level and optimism that we'll be able to return to cruising within the next year or so.  

 

What is your personal guess?  Mine is the 2nd half of 2022, but I hope it is sooner!

 

Do you have any hard preconditions before which you won't travel - e.g., vaccine in wide distribution.  Also, do you think that with a good vaccine the onboard experience will largely be "normal" including onboard experience and shore excursion flexibility?

My expected return to cruising for me personally is somewhere between infinity and never.

[sparks1093]

We're getting ready to book a Carnival cruise for February 2022. The cruise will be out of Baltimore so there won't be any airfare at risk and they are currently offering $50 pp deposits so we won't have much tied up in the cruise. And it's far enough in the future that we should have a good sense of how the counter-measures are working out. DW is much more cautious than I am so if she's willing to go then so am I. 

[evandbob]

The efforts to mitigate and control the coronavirus will decide a date for me.  In the meantime, I just accept the limitations about travel that the virus has imposed on us.

[K32682]

My answer was never not because I believe I won't cruise again but because I am have no expected timelines. It could be never or it could be next month if the virus miraculously vanished. The problem with picking a date on the calendar is the risk of being disappointed. I've lost 6 trips abroad already this year and don't want to get my hopes up only to have them dashed at some later date.  

[George C]

April fools day 

[davekathy]

We have a March 2021 B2B Caribbean cruise on the Rhapsody we are hoping to go on. 🤞 Final payment is due first week of December. Going to book our pre cruise hotel stay sometime this week for that cruise.

Edited November 17, 2020 by davekathy

[whogo]

In April I predicted 2,000,000 US coronavirus deaths by October 15, 2021. It is wishful thinking of me to click the first half of 2022. There is a slim chance that widespread vaccinations could bring cruising back to normal by then. There is also a better chance that vaccine deniers, covid deniers, and vaccine distribution problems will keep me from cruising for a long time after that. "South Dakota nurse says many patients deny the coronavirus exists — right up until death", according to a Washington Post article.

 

 

[iancal]

I voted but it is really quite impossible to determine this.  We simply do not have enough data and won't for at least a few more months. Until then....it is guess work at best.

 

I said 2H2022.  This if for cruising.  We are hopeful that we can start back to land vacations in late Sept/Oct, if not then in January 2021.   Certainly no plans to even consider a cruise before late 2021, if then.

Edited November 17, 2020 by iancal

[Mary229]

It depends on where you are cruising.  I predict North American and northern/Western Europe along with the Med will be open this coming summer.  Locations that do not have a pandemic vaccine program in place and will take longer in vaccinating their population will be later in opening their ports.

[SelectSys]

Thanks for all who answered.  So far, my guess of 2h 2022 seems to be pessimistic relative to the group as a whole.  

 

1 hour ago, whogo said:

There is also a better chance that vaccine deniers, covid deniers, and vaccine distribution problems will keep me from cruising for a long time after that. 

 

I am curious how vaccine and COVID deniers will keep you from cruising. It seems that these people are mainly putting themselves at risk.  My assumption is that some sort of vaccination record will be required to  go on a cruise after the general restart. I would expect this will be true for international travel as well.

 

31 minutes ago, iancal said:

Until then....it is guess work at best.

 

Of course!  Even the experts seem to be changing their minds as more is learned.  Cruise Critic is the world of entertainment and I would expect few, if any of us on this site have anything more than opinions/guesses.  I will grant you that some of these opinions on this site seemed more informed/reasoned than others.

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by SelectSys

[mnocket]

My guess is 2H 2022, unless there is such a spike in demand that pricing and/or availability preclude it.  I'm pretty sure this may well be the case, in which case, I'll have to wait a little longer.

[rkacruiser]

6 hours ago, George C said:

April fools day 

 

😁

 

I got a chuckle out of your response!

[evandbob]

8 hours ago, George C said:

April fools day 

Indeed.  We are optimistic about promising vaccines, yet hear that virus mitigation won't be effected until 80 to 85% of our population get vaccinated.

 

Between anti-vaxxers, hoax criers and those who will take a wait and see attitude about the initial vax rollout, I doubt we can get to an 80% vaxxed level.  

 

The cruise lines will have to make it mandatory that only those vaxxed can sail, and they have to be super diligent to check the proof of vax presented.

[cruisemom42]

I have no fixed date in my mind.  Two likely prerequisites for me will be CDC lifting their warning against travel by cruise ship and being able to get a COVID vaccine. 

 

That's not to say that I don't have travel booked, but must of that is rollovers from this year and I am sanguine about the likelihood that I will either cancel them or move them again until the above requirements can be met.

 

[clo]

35 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

I have no fixed date in my mind.  Two likely prerequisites for me will be CDC lifting their warning against travel by cruise ship and being able to get a COVID vaccine. 

 

That's not to say that I don't have travel booked, but must of that is rollovers from this year and I am sanguine about the likelihood that I will either cancel them or move them again until the above requirements can be met.

 

I just booked a cruise today...for Sept. 2022. With full cancellation/deposit refund until May 2022. It's close to the same Baltic/Scandinavian that got canceled for this past Sept. We'll see. We just wanted a particular category of cabin that's fairly limited on that ship.

[SelectSys]

10 hours ago, mnocket said:

My guess is 2H 2022, unless there is such a spike in demand that pricing and/or availability preclude it.  I'm pretty sure this may well be the case, in which case, I'll have to wait a little longer.

 

I am expecting pricing to really go up to deal with the pent up demand and reduced availability.

 

3 hours ago, evandbob said:

The cruise lines will have to make it mandatory that only those vaxxed can sail, and they have to be super diligent to check the proof of vax presented.

 

This will most definitely be case.  Maybe cruising will push some of your deniers, hoaxers and anti-vaccine types over the line.  Many times we have to give something to get something in return!

 

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

I have no fixed date in my mind. 

 

I hope this didn't keep you from taking a guess.