Bermuda and Alaska 2021?

[marco]

Weekly Bermuda cruises start April-ish and Alaska May-ish.  Have any lines made definitive decisions regarding sailings to ether of these two destinations?

[1025cruise]

Nothing has been decided yet. It's also not up to the lines. Bermuda needs to decide to accept cruise ships. For Alaska, not only does Alaska need to accept cruise ships, so does Canada.

[clo]

44 minutes ago, 1025cruise said:

For Alaska, not only does Alaska need to accept cruise ships, so does Canada.

Which was a really big deal last season. And since they're still not allowing us in - and I don't blame them one bit - I'd say it still has the potential to be a deal breaker.

[Aquahound]

1 hour ago, marco said:

Weekly Bermuda cruises start April-ish and Alaska May-ish.  Have any lines made definitive decisions regarding sailings to ether of these two destinations?

 

The answer is no.  No decision has been made yet.  Ref Alaska, Canada's ports are closed until March.  Not a deal breaker yet but at this point, we do not know if they'll extend.

[clo]

20 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

Ref Alaska, Canada's ports are closed until March. 

I haven't seen anything to that effect. Is that just for cruise ships? Citation please? TIA.

[ColeThornton]

17 minutes ago, clo said:

I haven't seen anything to that effect. Is that just for cruise ships? Citation please? TIA.

 

 

 

https://www.portvancouver.com/cruise/

Edited November 22, 2020 by ColeThornton

[clo]

14 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

 

https://www.portvancouver.com/cruise/

Thanks for that. I hope that means they may let 'regular' US citizens in then.

[SelectSys]

I seriously doubt cruising will start again in volume anywhere unless widespread vaccination exists and a reliable method of proving vaccination exists.  It truly is becoming that simple in my mind.   Canada, US, Caribbean, ...

 

Does anyone actually believe the limited cruising done this year even covered the ship's operational expenses?  I have no data, but my gut suggests no.  Maybe I could dig up something in public companies financial filings to support this conclusion, but even that could be challenging in terms of how the accounting was reported.

[gerryuk]

Ok  what's the deal with Canada? Do ships that cruise from say, Seattle have to stop in Canada, cant they just sail by and go direct to Alaska?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[gerryuk]

Ok  what's the deal with Canada? Do ships that cruise from say, Seattle have to stop in Canada, cant they just sail by and go direct to Alaska?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'

[Aquahound]

9 minutes ago, gerryuk said:

Ok  what's the deal with Canada? Do ships that cruise from say, Seattle have to stop in Canada, cant they just sail by and go direct to Alaska?

 

PVSA. Simply put....foreign flagged ships have to hit a foreign port. 

[K32682]

As things stand today, the chances of cruise ships from America landing in British Columbia in 2021 are close to zero. 

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by K32682

[clo]

50 minutes ago, K32682 said:

As things stand today, the chances of cruise ships from America landing in British Columbia in 2021 are close to zero. 

 

If I were to guess that would be mine also. If they're not allowing individuals to drive/fly/? in why would they allow cruise ships?

[Hlitner]

I think Bermuda will be quite predictable.  My hunch is that no cruises will be allowed to dock at Bermuda until there is safe/effective vaccine and the ship can certify that every person onboard has been vaccinated and there are no cases of COVID on the ship.   

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

I think Bermuda will be quite predictable.  My hunch is that no cruises will be allowed to dock at Bermuda until there is safe/effective vaccine and the ship can certify that every person onboard has been vaccinated and there are no cases of COVID on the ship.   

 

Hank

I believe you are right.  This will, of course, require the development of a generally accepted protocol: credible evidence of vaccination - certainly nothing as easy as a doctor’s letter .

[K32682]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I think Bermuda will be quite predictable.  My hunch is that no cruises will be allowed to dock at Bermuda until there is safe/effective vaccine and the ship can certify that every person onboard has been vaccinated and there are no cases of COVID on the ship.   

 

Hank

 

That's a reasonable prediction for Canada too. 

[chengkp75]

14 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I think Bermuda will be quite predictable.  My hunch is that no cruises will be allowed to dock at Bermuda until there is safe/effective vaccine and the ship can certify that every person onboard has been vaccinated and there are no cases of COVID on the ship.   

 

Hank

While having everyone on the ship be vaccinated will keep those on the ship from coming down with covid, it does nothing to protect the people that those passengers may interact with in the ports.  A vaccine keeps the person vaccinated from developing the disease, but it does not preclude that person from carrying the virus, and spreading it to non-vaccinated people.

[clo]

4 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

A vaccine keeps the person vaccinated from developing the disease, but it does not preclude that person from carrying the virus, and spreading it to non-vaccinated people.

I haven't seen that. Link please?

[Hlitner]

38 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

While having everyone on the ship be vaccinated will keep those on the ship from coming down with covid, it does nothing to protect the people that those passengers may interact with in the ports.  A vaccine keeps the person vaccinated from developing the disease, but it does not preclude that person from carrying the virus, and spreading it to non-vaccinated people.

Maybe yes and maybe no.  About a half hour ago I heard an interview (on a TV news show) with an informed vaccine expert who was ask just that question.  Her answer was that they do not have the definitive data from the Pfizer, Moderna or Oxford vaccines to answer the question about whether any of the vaccine would simply stop symptoms or also spread.  The other unanswered question is how often one would need to revaccinated.  They are pretty confident on at least 6 months with a high degree of immunity but we need more time to determine if that will extend to a year or longer.  Her best guess, based on the current data, is it may well turn into an annual shot.

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

1 minute ago, Hlitner said:

Maybe yes and maybe no.  About a half hour ago I heard an interview (on a TV news show) with an informed vaccine expert who was ask just that question.  Her answer was that they do not have the definitive data from the Pfizer, Moderna or Oxford vaccines to answer the question about whether any of the vaccine would simply stop symptoms or also spread.  The other unanswered question is how often one would need to revaccinated.  They are pretty confident on at least 6 months with a high degree of immunity but we need more time to determine if that will extend to a year or longer.  Her best guess, based on the current data, is it may well turn into an annual shot.

The other issue they talked about was so-called Herd Immunity.  The best estimates are that with a 90+ % vaccine efficacy rate, herd immunity would be achieved with a vaccination rate of approximately 70%.  What they did not talk about were recent polls which show that, at best, only half our population would get vaccinated (this is consistent with what we see with the flu vaccine).

 

Hank

 

[chengkp75]

44 minutes ago, clo said:

I haven't seen that. Link please?

Here's an article about Whooping Cough resurgence due to asymptomatic transmission by vaccinated people.  Vaccines are tested to see whether the person develops the disease, not to see whether the virus is eliminated in them.  As Hank says, it is unknown whether the covid vaccine will prevent spread, or merely stop the disease.  Some vaccines work for stopping transmission, some don't.

 

Sorry, forgot the link:

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150624071018.htm

Edited November 23, 2020 by chengkp75

[SelectSys]

1 minute ago, Hlitner said:

...  Her best guess, based on the current data, is it may well turn into an annual shot.

 

 

That would be my guess.  Perhaps the packaging of the vaccine (especially temperature sensitivity)  will be improved so that it could be combined with the annual flu shot.  Who knows...

 

I wonder how much money is going to be made?

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/lead-covid-19-vaccine-players-will-split-100b-sales-and-40b-profits-analyst

[Hlitner]

1 minute ago, SelectSys said:

 

That would be my guess.  Perhaps the packaging of the vaccine (especially temperature sensitivity)  will be improved so that it could be combined with the annual flu shot.  Who knows...

 

I wonder how much money is going to be made?

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/lead-covid-19-vaccine-players-will-split-100b-sales-and-40b-profits-analyst

With risks come rewards and the pharm companies may have earned their profits with COVID.  But in the case of Moderna, the key players have already made a ton of money because their stock more then tripled in the past 6 months and many cashed out of large blocks of stock under legal SEC 10b1 rules.  Apparently the CEO of Pfizer also cashed out of a nice block of stock.   In the case of Moderna, assuming their vaccine gets approved it will be the first drug ever brought to market by that 10 year old company.  Its founders gambled their careers when they founded Moderna on a scientific idea (mRNA) that had never previously been used to develop a drug.  Thank goodness we have very smart folks who are willing to take big personal risks for potential rewards.  

 

Hank

[chengkp75]

9 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The other issue they talked about was so-called Herd Immunity.  The best estimates are that with a 90+ % vaccine efficacy rate, herd immunity would be achieved with a vaccination rate of approximately 70%.  What they did not talk about were recent polls which show that, at best, only half our population would get vaccinated (this is consistent with what we see with the flu vaccine).

While I am not a viral epidemiologist, I have read that herd immunity varies by the vaccine, and the pathogen.  Also, many think that "herd immunity" means that people will become immune just from others getting the disease or being vaccinated.  That is not correct.  A person benefits from the "herd" effect of a vaccine, because they do not come into contact with an infectious person, because the vaccinated, immune, population around them is large enough.  However, that person, with "herd immunity" can still get the disease if in contact with an infected person.

 

This is why I don't feel that the vaccine will be the "magic bullet" or panacea that everyone thinks it will be.  It will take a long time for herd immunity to slow the transmission to low levels, both because of the time and difficulty in delivering the vaccine, as well as people's refusal to get the vaccine, and the airborne nature of the virus and it's worldwide spread.

[SelectSys]

2 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

...Thank goodness we have very smart folks who are willing to take big personal risks for potential rewards.  

 

No argument from me on this.  Where I live we have a fairly large biotech industry based initially on the Salk Institute and later from UCSD.

 

The funny thing is that sometimes the personal risks really aren't that high.  VC money comes and gos on cycles.  Sometimes money can be "relatively" easy to acquire depending on what's hot and the economic conditions.

 

There is quite a bit of fluidity as people move from start up to start up until they score.  Some never do yet still rake in some pretty high salaries over time just grinding it out.   A rare few strike twice or more on companies.

 

My neighbor has done a couple of these types of companies and seems pretty happy with the results.