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More “Bad News” for the Cruise Industry.


stevenr597
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3 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

I have not heard or read that the vaccination will not prevent a person from contracting the virus! Please post where this information came from. Our daughter was given every shot known to the pediatrician at the time and NEVER had a childhood illness. We all get our flu shots every year and none of us three has ever had the flu. So what is different about this vaccine? Need to know!

The clinical trials for the COVID vaccines were designed to check for symptomatic illness (largely due to the difficulty in detecting asymptomatic cases of COVID).  As a result they do know that the vaccines demonstrate excellent efficacy at preventing symptomatic illness, they do not know its impact on asymptomatic illness.

 

That does not mean that the vaccines do not prevent asymptomatic illness or do not impact spread.  It means that they do not know at this time because it has not been tested.

 

It may or it may not.

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On 11/22/2020 at 5:29 PM, stevenr597 said:

We must realize that until an effective vaccine is out and being administered to the public, the Cruise Industry will not be able to resume any type of cruising.  Probably the best we can hope for is that cruising, with a bit of luck will resume during the late Spring or early Summer.  

CDC Raises Warning for Cruise Ship Travel to Highest Level (cruisecritic.com)

No vaccines out to the public yet. Pyfizer and Moderna say they will have about 50 Million doses made.

But no time Frame is to we the public will get it. Pyfizer CEO said late second quarter or early third quarter.

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On 11/23/2020 at 4:11 PM, ceilidh1 said:

Canada has been at this warning level since last March. No change for us! 

And in News today: Prime Minister says vaccine delays in Canada vs USA, Br , Germany.  does not know when vaccinations will start here 

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7 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

I have not heard or read that the vaccination will not prevent a person from contracting the virus! Please post where this information came from. Our daughter was given every shot known to the pediatrician at the time and NEVER had a childhood illness. We all get our flu shots every year and none of us three has ever had the flu. So what is different about this vaccine? Need to know!

You might find this article about the Oxford Uni-produced vaccine interesting. I hope the link works.🙂 It uses different technology from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

 

https://theconversation.com/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-is-cheaper-than-pfizers-and-modernas-and-doesnt-require-supercold-temperature-150697

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8 hours ago, dog said:

And in News today: Prime Minister says vaccine delays in Canada vs USA, Br , Germany.  does not know when vaccinations will start here 

I'm starting to think I might never be able to travel again at this rate! Vancouver is under more restrictions and no travel outside of local health authority. Sigh. 

 

If we can't get our numbers under control here, there is no way cruise ships will be allowed in anytime soon!

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17 minutes ago, ceilidh1 said:

I'm starting to think I might never be able to travel again at this rate! Vancouver is under more restrictions and no travel outside of local health authority. Sigh. 

 

If we can't get our numbers under control here, there is no way cruise ships will be allowed in anytime soon!

I understand. Today say we might start vaccinations in January but slow to get to everyone who wants it. Still too many flying in n to Canada, too many being exempt & too many ignoring restrictions in Toronto area 

 

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16 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

I have not heard or read that the vaccination will not prevent a person from contracting the virus! Please post where this information came from.

 

Both Pfizer and Moderna reported that at least one person who had their vaccine showed symptoms for and had contracted Covid-19 in the Phase 3 trials.

 

For Moderna, there were 5 who had the vaccine and contracted the virus:

"This first interim analysis was based on 95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5% (p <0.0001)."

 

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy

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On 11/24/2020 at 9:56 PM, Aus Traveller said:

Your comment isn't totally accurate. There are several vaccines that will be available within the next six months. A couple of them (including Pfizer) don't stop the vaccinated person getting COVID, but the body is ready to fight the virus. Other vaccines (including the Oxford Uni one) work in a different way and prevent the person from contracting the virus.

Thanks for that information...I didn't relalize any prevented you from contracting it...just like they aren't sure if it would prevent you from spreading it.  I guess I should have been more specific and stated that I don't think the purpose of a vaccine is so you won't get the virus.  Flu vaccine is a perfect example.  You get the vaccine so your body is more adapt to the virus and able to fight it.  That doesn't prevent you from getting sick, but usually helps you not get as sick as well as preventing death in most cases. Here's an analogy: wearing seatbelts or not wearing seatbelts will not prevent you from getting into an accident.  However, if you get into an accident the seatbelt will help limit bodily damage.  Not wearing a seatbelt doesn't mean you will die, but you are much more likely to sustain heavy damage.  I'd say many vaccines work much the same way. 

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The good news on the news today nov 30 .2020 is that the Vaccines ,at least Pfizer's vaccine will be out  before Christmas . The key is to who will get the first injections .The CDC has a meeting Dec 1st to discuss this very topic .I would hope the elderly  in nursing homes ,My wife & I should be at the top because we are  82 with underlying medical conditions .both of us 

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7 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

The good news on the news today nov 30 .2020 is that the Vaccines ,at least Pfizer's vaccine will be out  before Christmas . The key is to who will get the first injections .The CDC has a meeting Dec 1st to discuss this very topic .I would hope the elderly  in nursing homes ,My wife & I should be at the top because we are  82 with underlying medical conditions .both of us 

The facility my wife works in has been preparing for a month now to recieve the vaccine.  They needed to provide certain safeguards/equipment to get on the distro list.  They expect the elderly and the front line medical workers (like her) to receive the initial doses.  Since the negatives surrounding younger people are so limited, this should drastically eliminate the death and hospitalizations.  For her, it's a matter of keeping her staff together.  They lost 2 more nurses this week already due to positive tests. 

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9 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Yeah that's pretty crazy.  Of course, worldwide, Cleveland Clinic employs about 70,000 people...so percentage wise, my wife losing 2 more nurses this week is about the same impact on services.  Either way, the frontline medical (much of Cleveland Clinic as an example is Research) folks will need to be in line with the elderly for receiving the vaccine.  Just MHO.

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When will a vaccine be available to the general public, and where will people receive it?

Federal officials have repeatedly suggested that people who are not in the priority groups — healthy adults under 65 who don’t work in health care or otherwise qualify as essential workers — should have access to the vaccine by May or June, because there will be enough supply by then. But a lot will have to go right for that to happen. One factor is whether, or when, other vaccines besides Pfizer’s and Moderna’s are approved.

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3 hours ago, voljeep said:

When will a vaccine be available to the general public, and where will people receive it?

Federal officials have repeatedly suggested that people who are not in the priority groups — healthy adults under 65 who don’t work in health care or otherwise qualify as essential workers — should have access to the vaccine by May or June, because there will be enough supply by then. But a lot will have to go right for that to happen. One factor is whether, or when, other vaccines besides Pfizer’s and Moderna’s are approved.

 

More may get approved, but if they are not as effective as Pfizer's and Moderna's are (around 95%), many people will not want them.

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4 hours ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

Yeah that's pretty crazy.  Of course, worldwide, Cleveland Clinic employs about 70,000 people...so percentage wise, my wife losing 2 more nurses this week is about the same impact on services.  

 

Your wife does wonderful and dangerous work. My best wishes. Do take care and get plenty of rest.

 

Once there is heavy community spread, it is impossible to keep covid19 out of hospitals and seniors homes. Fatigue is the issue. Of course, some facilities do better than others.

 

 

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20 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Your wife does wonderful and dangerous work. My best wishes. Do take care and get plenty of rest.

 

Once there is heavy community spread, it is impossible to keep covid19 out of hospitals and seniors homes. Fatigue is the issue. Of course, some facilities do better than others.

 

 

I just read the recommendations from the CDC about Vaccine dispersal.  The two initial groups will be Healthcare workers (my wife will be happy about this) and people living in Senior Home Facilities.  They expect somewhere around 20 million vaccines to be administered around the end of the year and between 5 - 10 million a week moving forward in 2021.  I saw one estimate that by early Spring 2021 enough vaccines will be available for the entire US to be vaccinated.  I guess the quesiton will be how many people refuse to take it. 

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On 12/2/2020 at 1:00 PM, USCcruisecrazy said:

I just read the recommendations from the CDC about Vaccine dispersal.  The two initial groups will be Healthcare workers (my wife will be happy about this) and people living in Senior Home Facilities.  They expect somewhere around 20 million vaccines to be administered around the end of the year and between 5 - 10 million a week moving forward in 2021.  I saw one estimate that by early Spring 2021 enough vaccines will be available for the entire US to be vaccinated.  I guess the quesiton will be how many people refuse to take it. 

My thought is though refusing to take the vaccine is foolish and selfish ( we can't control this virus unless we all participate) at least it frees up more for those that need and want it!

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anyone heard if they have formalized the group list yet? I am over 65 with 3 at risk medical conditions so am hoping to come after the front line workers and the nursing homes. If they put the essential workers such as truck drivers/store clerks etc before my group then it will be a awhile. 

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On 12/3/2020 at 4:19 PM, gmjc2 said:

My thought is though refusing to take the vaccine is foolish and selfish ( we can't control this virus unless we all participate) at least it frees up more for those that need and want it!

 

People are often surprised when they learn that only about 50% of Americans bother to get a flu shot.  There is a large segment of our population who are "vaccine resistant" for various reasons such as fear, anti-vax activist, medical reasons, etc.  Polls have shown that we can expect at least 40% of Americans to be resistant to getting a COVID vaccine and the public health folks will have a challenge to get a larger segment vaccinated.  I do believe that a COVID vaccination will be mandatory for a lot of International travel and cruises.  

 

But you are right that initially it does reduce demand.  I have heard a few estimates that everyone in the USA that wants a COVID vaccination should be able to get it by the end of June 2021.  Others think it might be a little faster.

 

Hank

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On 12/13/2020 at 8:11 AM, gmjc2 said:

Anyone heard if they have formalized the group list yet? I am over 65 with 3 at risk medical conditions so am hoping to come after the front line workers and the nursing homes. If they put the essential workers such as truck drivers/store clerks etc before my group then it will be a awhile. 

Each State is setting their own vaccine priorities.  

 

Hank

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Just now, Hlitner said:

People are often surprised when they learn that only about 50% of Americans bother to get a flu shot.  There is a large segment of our population who are "vaccine resistant" for various reasons such as fear, anti-vax activist, medical reasons, etc.  Polls have shown that we can expect at least 40% of Americans to be resistant to getting a COVID vaccine and the public health folks will have a challenge to get a larger segment vaccinated.  I do believe that a COVID vaccination will be mandatory for a lot of International travel and cruises.  

 

But you are right that initially it does reduce demand.  I have heard a few estimates that everyone in the USA that wants a COVID vaccination should be able to get it by the end of June 2021.  Others think it might be a little faster.

 

Hank

 

Just now, Hlitner said:

Each State is setting their own vaccine priorities.  

 

Hank

I like Delaware's list. They are putting the older with at risk medical conditions in with the nursing homes but here in Florida they have not yet put out an official list. Walgreen;s website says they have the vaccine in some stores but whn I called they told me that the protocols for who get's it have not been sent to them. They also seemed confused as to how we prove our medical issues! I assume it will be a letter from the Doc.

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Did you all see the item on the news last night? The cruise ships are required to give 30 days notice before taking the " trial cruises" then 60 days later they can begin cruising if they pass the scrutiny of the CDC inspections!  So a minimum of 3 months! Now I know why they cancelled our mid-Jan cruise!!  I can see no cruising until at least March

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12 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

Did you all see the item on the news last night? The cruise ships are required to give 30 days notice before taking the " trial cruises" then 60 days later they can begin cruising if they pass the scrutiny of the CDC inspections!  So a minimum of 3 months! Now I know why they cancelled our mid-Jan cruise!!  I can see no cruising until at least March

I don't know about the news report, but like many here on CC I have read the CDC Guidelines (it is public document).  The thirty day notice is part of the document but I do not recall anything about 60 days.  The Trial Cruises are simply one step (of many) to get the CDC Certification to cruise.  There are all kinds of issues to solve including how they would handle COVID cases, having agreements with ports, hospitals, etc.  When I read the guidelines (last month) it seemed like it might be possible to get some cruises operating in February...if a cruise line moved fast.  

 

One of my issues that in order to have any chance of getting CDC Certification, a cruise line will have to impose so many onboard (and port) restrictions so as to make the cruise not like a real cruise.  Perhaps some folks are willing to put up with all the restrictions but many others will not spend their money on such a folly.  There will also be a great risk of some COVID cases on any cruise in which case the cruise would need to end.  At that point nobody on the ship would likely be allowed to use any public transit for about 2 weeks so how would everyone get home, who will pay the bills, etc?  I thought the CDC Guidelines were like a blueprint of a document intended to keep cruise ships from operating.

 

Hank

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On 12/17/2020 at 9:35 PM, Hlitner said:

I don't know about the news report, but like many here on CC I have read the CDC Guidelines (it is public document).  The thirty day notice is part of the document but I do not recall anything about 60 days.  The Trial Cruises are simply one step (of many) to get the CDC Certification to cruise.  There are all kinds of issues to solve including how they would handle COVID cases, having agreements with ports, hospitals, etc.  When I read the guidelines (last month) it seemed like it might be possible to get some cruises operating in February...if a cruise line moved fast.  

 

One of my issues that in order to have any chance of getting CDC Certification, a cruise line will have to impose so many onboard (and port) restrictions so as to make the cruise not like a real cruise.  Perhaps some folks are willing to put up with all the restrictions but many others will not spend their money on such a folly.  There will also be a great risk of some COVID cases on any cruise in which case the cruise would need to end.  At that point nobody on the ship would likely be allowed to use any public transit for about 2 weeks so how would everyone get home, who will pay the bills, etc?  I thought the CDC Guidelines were like a blueprint of a document intended to keep cruise ships from operating.

 

Hank

Your last point about getting home is why we chose a short cruise from a port very close to us so that we would have the car to get home (2.5 hr drive). This was supposed to be our "get back to cruising baby steps " but alas it has been cancelled. 

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 It remains a mystery why so very many CC members remain in absolute denial about reality.

   A group of us have been posting consistently - and accurately - since

late March that cruising won't be happening until there are MAJOR changes in humankind's vulnerability to this virus.

   Yet month after month - sure as clockwork - people are posting "do you think we'll be back cruising by (two months from the current date)?"

 

    Ah, "No."

 

    We'll all know chances are improving when we hear of:

    - sharply, consistently plunging infection rates and steeply dropping hospitalization and death numbers;

    - and (not or) the CDC and port authorities reassessing projections and guidance;

     - and (not or) major league sports, hotel conferences, stadium concerts and such reopened.

 

    

 

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