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More “Bad News” for the Cruise Industry.


stevenr597
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On 12/16/2020 at 5:16 PM, Hlitner said:

People are often surprised when they learn that only about 50% of Americans bother to get a flu shot.  There is a large segment of our population who are "vaccine resistant" for various reasons such as fear, anti-vax activist, medical reasons, etc.  Polls have shown that we can expect at least 40% of Americans to be resistant to getting a COVID vaccine and the public health folks will have a challenge to get a larger segment vaccinated.  I do believe that a COVID vaccination will be mandatory for a lot of International travel and cruises.  

 

But you are right that initially it does reduce demand.  I have heard a few estimates that everyone in the USA that wants a COVID vaccination should be able to get it by the end of June 2021.  Others think it might be a little faster.

 

Hank

Of course, if 40% continue to resist getting the vaccine, the people who want it will do better - meaning that late April might be a possible date.   But, I am inclined to think that as our death toll  passes 400,000 by late January (entirely possible if our close-to 3,000 daily head count continues  as is now expected) - a few of the "no vaccine for me" people will start to think.

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On 12/22/2020 at 9:24 PM, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 It remains a mystery why so very many CC members remain in absolute denial about reality.

   A group of us have been posting consistently - and accurately - since

late March that cruising won't be happening until there are MAJOR changes in humankind's vulnerability to this virus.

   Yet month after month - sure as clockwork - people are posting "do you think we'll be back cruising by (two months from the current date)?"

 

    Ah, "No."

 

    We'll all know chances are improving when we hear of:

    - sharply, consistently plunging infection rates and steeply dropping hospitalization and death numbers;

    - and (not or) the CDC and port authorities reassessing projections and guidance;

     - and (not or) major league sports, hotel conferences, stadium concerts and such reopened.

 

    

 

We can still keep hoping. No denial here, just trying to be positive in a time of great negativity!!  

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 12/24/2020 at 9:42 AM, gmjc2 said:

We can still keep hoping. No denial here, just trying to be positive in a time of great negativity!!  

Actually, denial is all about ignoring truth ... and unfortunately, a frightful number of cruise fans have been doing that consistently since March. 

 

They keep substituting what they'd like to be true for what actually is true. But no amount of "optimism," magical thinking or "positive" attitudes will change the virus ... or the chokehold it has on cruising.

 

Until the globe gets a solid handle on COVID, there won't be mass market cruising like people have been used to. That's not because of negativity, the CDC, some shadowy anti-cruise conspiracy,

bias among scientists or any of the other phony straw men that keep getting blamed on CC.

 

The virus IS a killer, it IS worsening globally, and cruising IS an going to stay shutdown because it's an insanely dangerous health risk right now. And all of that IS beyond the power of

humans to change.

 

On the positive side, there's hope that science will get it under control in late '21

or '22. And cruising can resume. Which ships and cruise lines will still be around then? Depends on the management skills of the executive teams - which so far have been blundering and inept.


 

 

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2 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Actually, denial is all about ignoring truth ... and unfortunately, a frightful number of cruise fans have been doing that consistently since March. 

 

They keep substituting what they'd like to be true for what actually is true. But no amount of "optimism," magical thinking or "positive" attitudes will change the virus ... or the chokehold it has on cruising.

 

Until the globe gets a solid handle on COVID, there won't be mass market cruising like people have been used to. That's not because of negativity, the CDC, some shadowy anti-cruise conspiracy,

bias among scientists or any of the other phony straw men that keep getting blamed on CC.

 

The virus IS a killer, it IS worsening globally, and cruising IS an going to stay shutdown because it's an insanely dangerous health risk right now. And all of that IS beyond the power of

humans to change.

 

On the positive side, there's hope that science will get it under control in late '21

or '22. And cruising can resume. Which ships and cruise lines will still be around then? Depends on the management skills of the executive teams - which so far have been blundering and inept.


 

 

WoW!!!  Gloomy much!!!  Optimism is very different from denial.

Staying positive is all we can do right now. Accepting the possible truth but thinking positive thoughts.

 

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5 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

WoW!!!  Gloomy much!!!  Optimism is very different from denial.

Staying positive is all we can do right now. Accepting the possible truth but thinking positive thoughts.

 

"Optimism" in the face of contradictory facts is absolutely denial ... a temporary & phony victory of magical thinking over logic & truth. 
 

"staying positive" is what led people to book & rebook & rebook, each time hoping the virus would conveniently vanish or the CDC would abruptly stop doing its job. And like clockwork, they'd be back here a couple of months later with laments, handwringing ... and certainty that "this time will be different."

 

Charlie Brown making the same foolish run at the ball again... and again ... and again... isn't "staying positive." And such foolishness is no virtue or strength; just the opposite, it reveals an inability to cope with what IS.

 

CCL will remain sidelined as long as the virus rages unchecked. (Same with social distancing, mandatory masks, restrictions/shutdowns and all of that). 
 

The only sane path is for the "pretend it will all magically vanish" crew to man up & get real. Yes, we will cruise again some day - but not this spring, probably not this summer, and very possibly not for the rest of '21 unless the "liberty patriots" stop driving the infection rates higher 

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So, the science is now saying that the current vaccines in use do not protect you from getting covid19 they just minimise its severity. Of course, what follows is that they do not prevent you from transmitting the virus either. What then is the point of requiring everyone to be vaccinated before they can cruise again?

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17 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

"Optimism" in the face of contradictory facts is absolutely denial ... a temporary & phony victory of magical thinking over logic & truth. 
 

"staying positive" is what led people to book & rebook & rebook, each time hoping the virus would conveniently vanish or the CDC would abruptly stop doing its job. And like clockwork, they'd be back here a couple of months later with laments, handwringing ... and certainty that "this time will be different."

 

Charlie Brown making the same foolish run at the ball again... and again ... and again... isn't "staying positive." And such foolishness is no virtue or strength; just the opposite, it reveals an inability to cope with what IS.

 

CCL will remain sidelined as long as the virus rages unchecked. (Same with social distancing, mandatory masks, restrictions/shutdowns and all of that). 
 

The only sane path is for the "pretend it will all magically vanish" crew to man up & get real. Yes, we will cruise again some day - but not this spring, probably not this summer, and very possibly not for the rest of '21 unless the "liberty patriots" stop driving the infection rates higher 

As obviously you get your kicks from being argumentative I will make this my last post---There are no "facts " that preclude cruising again in the near future. It is just a matter of waiting and staying positive. If we all thought like you we would never even consider cruising again! Bye!!

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The facts have been extremely clear since early March & they haven't changed: Ships are staying anchored until this virus is on the run.

 

 The "just think positive" crowd has been making inaccurate and unfounded predictions about the resumption of cruising all along ... based every time on unexplained "optimism" and in complete denial of the science and data across the globe. They've been proven wrong every time. Every. Time.

 

Anyone looking for cruising in the spring is simply ignoring truth. 

 

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Maybe the cruiselines are smart to wait until 2-3 years pass after vaccines, before resuming. I, for one, am against mandatory vaccines. No one knows what outcome taking this vaccine will have for a few years. I think mandatory vaccines will kill the cruise industry.  Some people are unable to take the vaccine.

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On 1/24/2021 at 1:58 PM, Coco54 said:

Maybe the cruiselines are smart to wait until 2-3 years pass after vaccines, before resuming. I, for one, am against mandatory vaccines. No one knows what outcome taking this vaccine will have for a few years. I think mandatory vaccines will kill the cruise industry.  Some people are unable to take the vaccine.

In addition, they are now saying these vaccines do not stop you from getting the virus or passing it onto others, so they are not the 'great hope' they were portrayed as being, they just protect the vulnerable from the worst effects.

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On 1/24/2021 at 7:58 AM, Coco54 said:

Maybe the cruiselines are smart to wait until 2-3 years pass after vaccines, before resuming. I, for one, am against mandatory vaccines. No one knows what outcome taking this vaccine will have for a few years. I think mandatory vaccines will kill the cruise industry.  Some people are unable to take the vaccine.

They wouldn't last that long without a govt bailout, and there is no political will for that at this time. You're talking about multi-billion dollar corporations who are collectively burning through over a billion dollars of cash per month with no revenue coming in. Carnival alone has a monthly cash burn of $550m. Most of them have already taken out loans and/or diluted their stock in order to raise cash.

 

Some of the lines CEO's have put on a brave face stating they can go the rest of this year without sailing, but that optimism is just for consumption by the general public. Would you book a future cruise on a line that admitted they were in financial trouble? Behind closed doors it's whole different ball game. They are in survival mode.

 

They need to start generating revenue soon, or bankruptcy looms for some of them. Personally, I believe this June or July will be the tipping point (IMHO).

Edited by ableman
grammar
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