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The cruise industry won't return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030: Analyst


LongHill44
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6 minutes ago, LongHill44 said:

From my own personal experience most of those who have never cruised just don't want to.

I've been on 4 cruises so far and I will be going at the end of 2021 on 1 maybe 2 more.. 

If the vaccine is readily available to everyone and they require one prior to boarding and maybe even breathalyzer tests prior to boarding what do we have to worry about?

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As a customer, none of this upsets me. The cruise industry has spent several years trying to see how much extra cash they can squeeze from customers while slamming more and more onto ships with more crowded public spaces. 

 

The ships are petri dishes and the newer they are, the more crowded and unsanitary they are. Just the experiences I had on the smaller Miracle vs the much more crowded Magic were night and day. 

 

It's time for the industry to do some much needed corrections to return to passenger comfort and safety, vs the race to see how many dollars they can rip from our hands. 

 

Long story short, customers have more power now. That's a good thing. 

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2 hours ago, Indytraveler83 said:

As a customer, none of this upsets me. The cruise industry has spent several years trying to see how much extra cash they can squeeze from customers while slamming more and more onto ships with more crowded public spaces. 

 

The ships are petri dishes and the newer they are, the more crowded and unsanitary they are. Just the experiences I had on the smaller Miracle vs the much more crowded Magic were night and day. 

 

It's time for the industry to do some much needed corrections to return to passenger comfort and safety, vs the race to see how many dollars they can rip from our hands. 

 

Long story short, customers have more power now. That's a good thing. 

What? Have you missed the part of Carnival taking delivery of the Mardi Gras? The Celebration is next. There's no going back.

 

Google market segmentation.  Carnival serves the market where large ships work. The Carnival Corp also has cruise lines that have smaller ships.

 

You may need to change cruise lines.

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Well for one the ships arent Petri dishes its just some of the passengers on them, malls and fast food places are much worse. Also, Ive never felt crowded on a Cruise ship unless im at the 4 for $20 T-shirt sale.  Most times i wonder where everyone is.  As for returning passenger comfort and safety vs the larger ships I think the Yachts of Seabourn might be the alternative your seeking. Cruise ships getting larger mean more amenities and things to do but that doesnt mean i have to partake of them.  And as for the financial analysts report meh,  the market does what the market does.  Investors are cray cray lately.  In the last three days the market went down cause there was no stimulus package, went back up cause there MIGHT be a stimulus package then went back down cause there was a package but they didnt like it.  People who have never cruised before may be a big chunk of the market thats untapped but theres probably reasons why they have never cruised before COVID and i doubt they are the market that Carnival is concerned with since they are an unknown.  Its us Cruisers who have cruised multiple times and keep coming back that drives their market more and once we are cleared to travel again watch out and stand back or risk getting caught in the stampede lol.

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Article didn’t give a percentage of people affected by viruses on cruise ships, but states that they’re Petrie-dishes 🙄

 

CDC data

Out Of 74 million pax

129,678 got sick AND

1 out of 10 were part of a  norovirus outbreak.

 

With Covid19, a ship better have a revised filtration system, imo, in order to squelch airborne particles.

 

If people can handle not having swimming pools, cover them up & have outdoor dining, temporarily, till the virus multipliés enough so it’s no longer a threat.  .

 

 

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2 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

What? Have you missed the part of Carnival taking delivery of the Mardi Gras? The Celebration is next. There's no going back.

 

Google market segmentation.  Carnival serves the market where large ships work. The Carnival Corp also has cruise lines that have smaller ships.

 

You may need to change cruise lines.

 

That's a rather strong reaction to suggesting that Carnival provide a better customer experience. 

 

I may have to change lines at some time, if the Vista and bigger become the only way Carnival sails   In the meantime I'll enjoy the dream class ships and smaller (bulk of the fleet) and ignore the worst of the overcrowding. And I'll also hope that Carnival turns an ear back to the customer. 

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On 12/22/2020 at 9:11 PM, Tippyton said:

The article was more about profitability and capacity challenges.  This wasn't totally negative.  It was an investor perspective, not a cruiser perspective.

Yep, that is what I took from the article.

 

Edited by Luke gs Daddy
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It is unreal how some folks can twist an article, intended for the investment/financial world to their own agenda :(.  The article is actually quite accurate when it says the "perception" is that cruise ships are a floating petri dish.  The word "perception" is absolutely correct in this context.   The issue for the investment community is whether that perception (among others) will impact future bookings and revenue.   I also found the last paragraph interesting as it pertains to possible consolidation.  There have been rumors that CCL might combine some of their brands but many of us pooh pooh that idea since each brand is simply designed to appeal to a certain clientele.  CCL has already moved to combine brands for business purposes (joint purchasing) and I would expect more consolidation among key staff in an effort to contain costs.  Many are not aware of the various consolidations.  For example, HAL, Princess, Seabourn and CCL all the share the same air booking organization.  As lines reduce the number of ships (i.e. HAL has already sold 4 vessels) it would make sense to move some staff between lines.  

 

I actually found the article very disturbing, from an investor point of view.  CCL, RCI and NCLH have all taken on a huge amount of debt in order to keep afloat (pun intended) during the COVID shutdown.  But most of the debt restructuring was intended to get the companies through the first half of 2021 with the expectation that most operations would be able to recommence.  But now it looks less likely that the lines will be able to reach anything close to normal operations by next July and their actual revenue stream will be blunted by many passengers using large FCCs.   There is a finite limit on debt obligations before a corporation becomes insolvent.  Not only will the cruise lines need to cover their operating costs and additional start-up costs but they will also need to satisfy various debt obligations further draining resources.   Belt tightening on cruises would be a natural outgrowth which translates into lower quality or much more expensive onboard services.  But if a line lowers quality that would likely translate into fewer bookings.  A real Catch-22.

 

Hank

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  • 4 weeks later...

I just hope they don't all go belly up.  My husband and I were finally at that age where we were comfortable with maybe taking a cruise a year, and at that financial stability to afford us to do this very comfortably. Cruising is our favorite vacation.    

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On 12/28/2020 at 12:52 PM, Hlitner said:

It is unreal how some folks can twist an article, intended for the investment/financial world to their own agenda :(.  The article is actually quite accurate when it says the "perception" is that cruise ships are a floating petri dish.  The word "perception" is absolutely correct in this context.   The issue for the investment community is whether that perception (among others) will impact future bookings and revenue.   I also found the last paragraph interesting as it pertains to possible consolidation.  There have been rumors that CCL might combine some of their brands but many of us pooh pooh that idea since each brand is simply designed to appeal to a certain clientele.  CCL has already moved to combine brands for business purposes (joint purchasing) and I would expect more consolidation among key staff in an effort to contain costs.  Many are not aware of the various consolidations.  For example, HAL, Princess, Seabourn and CCL all the share the same air booking organization.  As lines reduce the number of ships (i.e. HAL has already sold 4 vessels) it would make sense to move some staff between lines.  

 

I actually found the article very disturbing, from an investor point of view.  CCL, RCI and NCLH have all taken on a huge amount of debt in order to keep afloat (pun intended) during the COVID shutdown.  But most of the debt restructuring was intended to get the companies through the first half of 2021 with the expectation that most operations would be able to recommence.  But now it looks less likely that the lines will be able to reach anything close to normal operations by next July and their actual revenue stream will be blunted by many passengers using large FCCs.   There is a finite limit on debt obligations before a corporation becomes insolvent.  Not only will the cruise lines need to cover their operating costs and additional start-up costs but they will also need to satisfy various debt obligations further draining resources.   Belt tightening on cruises would be a natural outgrowth which translates into lower quality or much more expensive onboard services.  But if a line lowers quality that would likely translate into fewer bookings.  A real Catch-22.

 

Hank

 

Soberly reasoned.

 

- Joel

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