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Random Thoughts on Vaccine Progress


KennyFla
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In the US we’ve just been told to keep wearing masks and socially distance  between doses and after completing the 2 dose regimen.  It takes a week or so after the second dose to reach full immunity.

 

Maybe it is due to the differences in vaccines (assuming UK is disbursing Astra Zeneca)?

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3 hours ago, emmas gran said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55784199

 

Interesting article regarding those who have been vaccinated by our Deputy Chief Medical Officer

 

The main point I got from the article is that while you are building immunity you should continue to take precautions.  The vaccine is not effective immediately, there is a 21 day immunity building process.

Edited by KennyFla
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43 minutes ago, KennyFla said:

 

The main point I got from the article is that while you are building immunity you should continue to take precautions.  The vaccine is not effective immediately, there is a 21 day immunity building process.

You need some serious work on your reading comprehension.

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11 hours ago, gotta cruise again said:


My DH works in a hospital in both a clinic and with critical care patients. He received his 2nd Pfizer shot 8 days ago. He worked the entire time; we aren’t being told in the US to stay home during the 3 weeks between 1st & 2nd shots.

GCA ... The UK Government and Regulator have decided to not give the second jab until 12 weeks later ! today one Doctor has spoken out about it and says it is an Unlicensed trial.

Edited by sidari
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2 hours ago, d9704011 said:

You need some serious work on your reading comprehension.

 

"It is possible to contract the virus in the two- to three-week period after receiving a jab, he said - and it is "better" to allow "at least three weeks" for an immune response to fully develop in older people.

"Even after you have had both doses of the vaccine you may still give Covid-19 to someone else and the chains of transmission will then continue," Prof Van-Tam said."

 

There is disagreement on the last sentence, whether you can pass the virus after you reach immunity.

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7 hours ago, emmas gran said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55784199

 

Interesting article regarding those who have been vaccinated by our Deputy Chief Medical Officer

 

 

"Covid: Vaccinated people may spread virus, says Van-Tam"

 

This is what we have been saying all along! 😒

 

The Astra Zeneca trial did test people for infection (hence transmissibility). The result from their trial? 62% success.

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On 1/14/2021 at 1:46 PM, KennyFla said:

I just read (somewhere) that at current supply Florida will get 1 million doses a month.  This seems right as we are in our fourth week and 775k shots have been given (counting second shots).  So let's take worst case, 1 million per month.  If more types get approved, production increases, could be more.

 

The amount of people in Fla 65 and over is approx 4.3million.  This means that by the end of April, most of front line workers and over 65 should be vaccinated.

 

Why is this important?  The over 65 people that have the virus are the ones filling the hospitals and having the worst reactions(for the worst part).  Once the hospitals start to empty and the worst reactions end the cruise industry will seriously look to re-start.  I believe you will have to be vaccinated to get on a ship, at least at first.

 

So, end of May?  Just my 2 cents.

 

 

This is a false assumption. 

 

I round on the COVID units and intubate patients (ie put them on the ventilator). It is filled with ppl 20 to 60 yo. I have had to withdraw care on a 30 yo. The peak is projected to be in April. 

 

There has been a lot of vaccine hesitancy bc you know...freedom:classic_rolleyes:...so it may be a long time before we reach herd immunity.

 

Granted, I am in a different state, but our county is one of the worst in the nation at one point of the pandemic. 

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On 1/23/2021 at 8:59 PM, capriccio said:

In the US we’ve just been told to keep wearing masks and socially distance  between doses and after completing the 2 dose regimen.  It takes a week or so after the second dose to reach full immunity.

 

Maybe it is due to the differences in vaccines (assuming UK is disbursing Astra Zeneca)?

 

No, the difference lies in the ability of the medical and scientific  personnel to speak freely and give advice.

 

If you have been reading any of the recent interviews given by the lead US national experts over the last five days, their ability to do their job freely, no matter how unwelcomed their information may be, is no longer a problem.

 

Masks and social distancing has always been the first line defense for the spread of Covid 19. Unfortunately, the strict enforcement has not been done.

 

With the vaccines now available, some still do not understand that masks and distancing should still be done for the safety of all, especially those who are unvaccinated.

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1 hour ago, Homosassa said:

 

No, the difference lies in the ability of the medical and scientific  personnel to speak freely and give advice.

 

I agree with your post but I was addressing the comment by Sidari in post 49:

 

Just read that the Deputy Medical Officer for the UK Jonathan Van Tam has said that those who have had the first vaccine have to stay in the house for three weeks for the vaccine to kick in, what are you being told in the US ?

 

Have you heard anything like that recommendation pre- or post- June 20th?

 

 

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7 hours ago, capriccio said:

 

I agree with your post but I was addressing the comment by Sidari in post 49:

 

Just read that the Deputy Medical Officer for the UK Jonathan Van Tam has said that those who have had the first vaccine have to stay in the house for three weeks for the vaccine to kick in, what are you being told in the US ?

 

Have you heard anything like that recommendation pre- or post- June 20th?

 

 

That same information is being given here in the US. However, the ability to say this at the top is new and will take time to work down to the general population.

 

It is not phased as "stay in the house," but is given as masks still need to be worn and social distancing (stay in the house for some of us) still needs to be done as it takes approximately 21 days for the immune system to come up to speed. A fourteen day period is recommended after the second dose.

 

Masks and social distancing should continue for the benefit of those who are not vaccinated.

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Great news on the treatment front:

"A combination of two Eli Lilly antibody drugs were found to reduce risk of hospitalization and death in high-risk patients recently diagnosed with coronavirus by 70%, the company said Tuesday. The results stem from a Phase 3 BLAZE-1 trial involving 1,035 patients and add to previous data collected during Phase 2 trials."

 

 

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On 1/25/2021 at 8:57 AM, Homosassa said:

 

No, the difference lies in the ability of the medical and scientific  personnel to speak freely and give advice.

 

If you have been reading any of the recent interviews given by the lead US national experts over the last five days, their ability to do their job freely, no matter how unwelcomed their information may be, is no longer a problem.

 

 

Sorry, but that (specifically the opinion, not you as it is your right) is 100% totally absurd, IMO.

 

Further, the lead US national experts is/are an oxymoron to the nth degree.  One such goes from advising that "wearing a mask is not effective" to NOW "two masks will work better!"  Adding today that "two masks might be require EVEN AFTER VACCINATED." 

 

They, the expert(s), and those boot-licking them, sat silent as airlines flew millions of international travelers in the tri-NY airports under the "science" that sitting next to someone for hours, behind and in front of more, plus at the gate and boarding, was SAFE.  I believe the term was "in NY, we welcome people."  On the other coast, "it's OK to go out to Chinatown for dinner."  Then, this one major tri-state area lets loose the virus as hundreds of thousands, may millions, fled the city area to all parts.  The complained and threatened litigation for states demanding identification at the state line and stated it was not legal.  Months later, after their populations LEFT, and their caseloads dropped, THEY "banned travel to their state."  Total continued hypocrisy.

 

This hypocrisy of the "science" was a subjective, selective and unrelated to the health and safety of their populations at the state level.  

 

The largest US cities, with most crushing of draconian lockdowns (for small businesses the virus was there regardless of the physical dimensions and air quality and spacing, but not for national, corporate, big box stores; but for restaurants, bars and hotels, but not airplanes, subways, trains or  buses, and FOR THEE nor for them). 

 

Consider - at the current 7-day HIGHEST hospitalizations (in fact 3 times higher than when they ordered the shutdowns based upon the hospitalization bed capacity) and now (actually, in the past week, conveniently) OPENING back up.

 

I would normally say "you can't make this stuff up."

 

I would correct myself.  YOU CAN and THEY DID.

 

Remember, the vaccines WON'T BE SAFE as they were "rushed" by the unholy ones.  Then, the same vaccine dis-advocates put "themselves" at the FRONT OF THE LINE. 

 

It get even better.  According to the "science," the vaccine is SOOOOO GOOD that it can be spaced out 6 to 8 to 12 WEEKS between doses!

 

The "virus," (can't say Ch..... or Wu...; but can talk about African 'strain, Brazil 'strain and today, another hit word meme, in California, a "home grown 'strain."  Direct from the news.  A "home grown 'strain."), was, has been and is been totally socially and ideologically weaponized, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives, millions of jobs, homes and family incomes, hundreds of thousands of small businesses, and even entire metropolitan cities - - - for one goal that was "clearly not eradication or mitigation control of the virus.

 

Again, not you, just that opinion which I proudly stand to protect that right for all.

 

 

 

Edited by Formula280SS
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Formula ... The UK Government's mantra since day one has been we are following the Science, which then told them that the Pfizer vaccine should be given three weeks apart, in their wisdom they have now chosen to ignore the science because it suits them and have extended the second jab to 12 weeks.

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26 minutes ago, sidari said:

Formula ... The UK Government's mantra since day one has been we are following the Science, which then told them that the Pfizer vaccine should be given three weeks apart, in their wisdom they have now chosen to ignore the science because it suits them and have extended the second jab to 12 weeks.

 

@sidari it's a mess, everywhere.  The virus, at this point, is not the biggest problem we face.  We've never trusted governance, with its' intravenous of partisanship and corruption (internal and foreign), and now we really can't trust scientists, researchers, etc., i.e., experts.  They've all been compromised and exposed.  If anyone, regardless of accepted credentials, questions the policies of such dogma, they are cancelled, blocked and risk livelihoods and life long earned careers and reputations.  

 

I can't see cruising, as we knew it (and loved it and miss it) for years.  The 'new normal has become a manipulative tool of terrible precedence to what hideous fortunes await us.  Again, it's a mess.  

 

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BTW, I cannot see how they can mandate that you must be vaccinated before you can cruise, under 16's cannot have the jab so are all families going to leave their kids at home ?

OK let's exempt them, then what is the point as they seem to be a substantial carrier and hence spreader of the virus these days.

I will make up my own mind as to my exposure to the risk. Mandating the jab means no cruise for me.

I have plenty of places to visit in the USA.

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9 minutes ago, quattrohead said:

 

OK let's exempt them, then what is the point as they seem to be a substantial carrier and hence spreader of the virus these days.

I will make up my own mind as to my exposure to the risk. Mandating the jab means no cruise for me.

 

 

Yes, they may be a carrier and spread.  But, if everyone at risk of having a terrible reaction to the virus is vaccinated, (I know there are exceptions), it should not cause problems.  It will become a virus and not a pandemic.  In my mind, this is what vaccination is all about.  We don't shut down for the flu.

Edited by KennyFla
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1 hour ago, quattrohead said:

BTW, I cannot see how they can mandate that you must be vaccinated before you can cruise, under 16's cannot have the jab so are all families going to leave their kids at home ?

 

We have first hand knowledge of such a 'mandate'.  In 2010 we took a cruise from Fort Lauderdale to Manaus, Brazil.  A Yellow Fever vaccination was required.  In the case of older travelers (above 60 or 65 IIRC) the requirement could be waived because of the increased possibility of an adverse reaction in patients over that age.  A doctor's note was required for those patients.

 

In the case of children under 16 I can't imagine why even a doctor's note would be required given that a Covid vaccine doesn't exist.  Instead an exemption to the 'mandate' would be automatic according to the passenger's age.

 

So it can be done.  Will it?  None of us know.

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1 hour ago, KennyFla said:

 

It will become a virus and not a pandemic.  In my mind, this is what vaccination is all about.  We don't shut down for the flu.

 

It's generally well known that it is NOT the flu. First, at least 5% of those vaccinated (Pfizer and Moderna) will have symptoms. So, infectious teens still poise a danger.

 

Second, there's a mix of vaccines being deployed (in haste) of varying efficacy for the seniors. I hope that we don't find out the hard way.

 

Third, teens do suffer from long-haul and they do die...

 

"Young people are not just potential spreaders, but also are at risk for complications and death, as otherwise healthy, young people have died...

 

In the spring, increased COVID-19 cases were among elderly populations and those with underlying chronic conditions, but over time, the average age of those infected has slowly gone down, he said...


While people 65 years and over have accounted for 79% of the at least 223,984 COVID-19 fatalities in the U.S. recorded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...

 

At least 410 people in the 15-24 age group have died while young adults ages 25-34 have accounted for at least 1,725 COVID-19-related deaths, according to the CDC.

 

And even the youngest Americans (children under 15) have not been invulnerable to the disease -- 81 died at last count, according to the CDC."

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wrecked-lives-families-young-adults-died-covid-19/story?id=74148061

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

 

And even the youngest Americans (children under 15) have not been invulnerable to the disease -- 81 died at last count, according to the CDC."

 

 

 

 

 

 

From the CDC:

"During the 2018–2019 season, 136 deaths in children with laboratory–confirmed influenza virus infection were reported in the United States8. However, influenza-associated pediatric deaths are likely under-reported as not all children whose death was related to an influenza virus infection may have been tested for influenza9,10. By combining data on hospitalization rates, influenza testing practices, and the frequency of death in and out of the hospital from death certificates, we estimate that there were approximately 480  deaths associated with influenza in children during 2018–2019."

 

So if everyone over 18 is vaccinated and that prevents their deaths, then you are right.  It is not the flu.  It is not as bad.

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44 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 


While people 65 years and over have accounted for 79% of the at least 223,984 COVID-19 fatalities in the U.S. recorded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...

 

At least 410 people in the 15-24 age group have died while young adults ages 25-34 have accounted for at least 1,725 COVID-19-related deaths, according to the CDC.

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone over 18 will eventually be vaccinated.  If they want.  If they don't, they may not be able to cruise.  Just like now, if you want to go to certain places you must have certain vaccinations.  I went to Haiti 15 years ago, and had to have multiple vaccinations.

Edited by KennyFla
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37 minutes ago, KennyFla said:

 

By combining data on hospitalization rates, influenza testing practices, and the frequency of death in and out of the hospital from death certificates, we estimate that there were approximately 480  deaths associated with influenza in children during 2018–2019."

 

So if everyone over 18 is vaccinated and that prevents their deaths, then you are right.  It is not the flu.  It is not as bad.

 

You need to adjust the number of deaths by the number of people infected by flu and covid respectively. BTW, the article only reported number up to November when the USA deaths were only 200k.

 

35 minutes ago, KennyFla said:

Anyone over 18 will eventually be vaccinated.  If they want.  If they don't, they may not be able to cruise.  

 

The original insight is that it makes no sense for all adults to be vaccinated on a ship, when 16-under are not. 

 

The logic is undeniable. Cruising can't return to normal if there are numbers of unvaccinated people on board. We'll still have to follow safety guidelines; masking/distancing etc.

 

With the safety protocols, that will deter many customers. Back to square one for the cruise companies.

 

As I have said repeatedly, cruising (reliable and comfortable) can only resume from low risk areas. Otherwise, there is the real chance of disruption at the port of embarkation, and on board.

Edited by HappyInVan
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