Oceania cruises cancelled for April

[deadzone1003]

13 hours ago, njhorseman said:

My wife used  call me "Mr. Entertainment" because I always had  funny things to say. But I've always had more than a little touch of curmudgeon in me, and I don't suffer fools gladly.

Mr. Entertainment, are you doing your Noel Coward impersonation?  (Sorry, that's the first thing entered my old, old brain when I read your reply.  I guess if you understand my reply, we are dating ourselves,LOL.)

[Bellaggio Cruisers]

2 hours ago, Croooser said:

Is this intended as a political comment? Apparently it has already started here.

 

This week the trend is continuing to increase. If you ignore the holiday weekend, the trailing 3 day number for the USA is 1,130,000/day as of today. 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=~USA&region=World

 

If you take an optimistic view, the trend will continue to climb especially with additional vaccines being approved as well as the structure to deliver vaccine being improved over time.

 

If you take a pessimistic view, you can believe that the supply is not going to be adequate. 

Not political at all.....1,000,000 per day in the future. Not in the next two months, at least...it’s not the vaccine that’s the problem. It’s the ability to distribute and have personnel to vaccinate 

[deadzone1003]

16 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Not political at all.....1,000,000 per day in the future. Not in the next two months, at least...it’s not the vaccine that’s the problem. It’s the ability to distribute and have personnel to vaccinate 

Something we also use to call a learning curve.

[Croooser]

56 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Not political at all.....1,000,000 per day in the future. Not in the next two months, at least...it’s not the vaccine that’s the problem. It’s the ability to distribute and have personnel to vaccinate 

Did you get a chance to look at the link that I posted with the recent data?

 

1/19 15.71 million

1/20 16.53 million

1/21 17.55 million

1/22 19.2 million

 

The number of persons in the USA each day is already trending at over 1,000,000/day. Unless that trend is not sustained, we will continue to see that rate, and likely higher, due to the increasing availability of vaccine locations and the possibility of additional vaccines being approved and administered.

 

Am I missing your point or do you not trust the data?

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

Mr. Entertainment, are you doing your Noel Coward impersonation?  (Sorry, that's the first thing entered my old, old brain when I read your reply.  I guess if you understand my reply, we are dating ourselves,LOL.)

Noel Coward would be the last person to come to mind, other than in wit perhaps. I'm not the slick, suave well-dressed type. I'm closer to my old 1960's hippie, anti war protestor, or Bluto Blutarsky  personas if anything. Or maybe Groucho Marx.

 

  Animal House could have easily been filmed in my fraternity house. I also spent the summer of 1968 in San Francisco with a couple of cousins who lived there. One year late for the Summer of Love, but still having that essence. These days my hair is a lot shorter though. Gray and thinning hair doesn't look great in a longer haired hippie style.

[RJB]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

I saw people sleeping in their cars overnight in the parking lot in FL just to get the shots.

If you're happy doing that it's OK with me.

I got my shot this Wed in 20 minutes and know many friends in the area with same experience.

No need to leave CA.

He might have been able to do better if the prior administration had made any plans beyond manufacturing of the vaccines. Sadly they had no plans at all so Biden has to start from the beginning.

From the beginning everyone knew that the states would be in charge of the distribution so they are the ones that have fallen down.  At least some of them. 

[Bellaggio Cruisers]

2 hours ago, Croooser said:

Did you get a chance to look at the link that I posted with the recent data?

 

1/19 15.71 million

1/20 16.53 million

1/21 17.55 million

1/22 19.2 million

 

The number of persons in the USA each day is already trending at over 1,000,000/day. Unless that trend is not sustained, we will continue to see that rate, and likely higher, due to the increasing availability of vaccine locations and the possibility of additional vaccines being approved and administered.

 

Am I missing your point or do you not trust the data?

Based on your numbers, if 10 million people are vaccinated in one day, our entire population will be vaccinated in approximately 35 days....

[ORV]

16 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Based on your numbers, if 10 million people are vaccinated in one day, our entire population will be vaccinated in approximately 35 days....

I believe they are referring to the difference each day. Which would be the daily total. 

[Bellaggio Cruisers]

42 minutes ago, ORV said:

I believe they are referring to the difference each day. Which would be the daily total. 

Got it... so it will take almost one year....

[deadzone1003]

3 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Noel Coward would be the last person to come to mind, other than in wit perhaps. I'm not the slick, suave well-dressed type. I'm closer to my old 1960's hippie, anti war protestor, or Bluto Blutarsky  personas if anything. Or maybe Groucho Marx.

 

  Animal House could have easily been filmed in my fraternity house. I also spent the summer of 1968 in San Francisco with a couple of cousins who lived there. One year late for the Summer of Love, but still having that essence. These days my hair is a lot shorter though. Gray and thinning hair doesn't look great in a longer haired hippie style.

I was, in my indirect manner, complimenting on your wit.  Bluto or Groucho never came to mind, but people's persona on the internet are sometimes so different than when you meet them in person.  May our paths cross one day on an Oceania cruise.   

[Croooser]

5 hours ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Not political at all.....1,000,000 per day in the future. Not in the next two months, at least...it’s not the vaccine that’s the problem. It’s the ability to distribute and have personnel to vaccinate 

Yes, not only in the next two months but already, if the current trend is sustained or increased.

1 hour ago, ORV said:

I believe they are referring to the difference each day. Which would be the daily total. 

ORV is correct. The numbers represent the running total of people vaccinated in the USA on that date. The difference between the totals for each successive day equals the number vaccinated on one day - currently trending at 1,000,000 +

 

1 hour ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Got it... so it will take almost one year....

I am guessing that you mean for the entire population to be vaccinated? Could be, but no one knows yet. 

 

IMHO it's a fools errand to predict too far in the future. Any opinions are based on several assumptions, any one of which could be off. Too many variables: many people will require two shots (both Pfizer and Moderna), but many people will choose to not be vaccinated, so far kids are not candidates for the vaccine so that decreases the population to be vaccinated unless/until vaccines are approved for kids, possibility of supply disruption from the manufacturers which will slow the rate down, but some additional vaccines (e.g. J&J on the horizon) which will increase the available supply. And it is reasonable to expect that the structure/supply chain to administer the vaccines will become larger through more locations - e.g. pharmacies and more efficient with experience. CVS and Walgreens have a total of approximately 20,000 USA locations. But there would need to be supply available.

 

Seems to me that it's a little like a cruise ship leaving port - starts slow and takes a while to build up momentum but once she gets going there is a lot of progress. Let's all hope so. 

 

HTH

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Croooser

[Aloha 1]

23 hours ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

1,000,000 vaccinations a day.... where and when does this start? 

Today per Dr. Marty McCarey,  head of the Johns Hopkins Health Policy Institute. Been averaging 900,000 per day and hit 1mm today. Seems Joe is late to the party.

[Aloha 1]

6 hours ago, Paulchili said:

I saw people sleeping in their cars overnight in the parking lot in FL just to get the shots.

If you're happy doing that it's OK with me.

I got my shot this Wed in 20 minutes and know many friends in the area with same experience.

No need to leave CA.

He might have been able to do better if the prior administration had made any plans beyond manufacturing of the vaccines. Sadly they had no plans at all so Biden has to start from the beginning.

Paul, the reason people were lining up overnite was the Health Departments set up a first come, first served, site. Ridiculous. That's when Gov. DeSantis went to Publix and had them use their already set up appointment system for vaccines . It has been a great success. Another example of private enterprise doing what government bureaucracy can't do.

 

As to the prior administration, the plan was get the vaccine to the States and have them administer. Remember Cuomo saying he would not allow the Feds to "dictate" how the vaccine would be distributed in NY? So the plan always was for the States to handle the final leg. Now we have learned how incompetent the States are.

[njhorseman]

19 minutes ago, Aloha 1 said:

Today per Dr. Marty McCarey,  head of the Johns Hopkins Health Policy Institute. Been averaging 900,000 per day and hit 1mm today. Seems Joe is late to the party.

No, Biden was the first to arrive at the party . He made the 100 million vaccinations in 100 days promise at a press conference on December 8, 2020, three days before the first vaccine (Pfizer's) was even approved:

https://khn.org/news/article/bidens-covid-challenge-100-million-vaccinations-in-the-first-100-days-it-wont-be-easy/

“This team will help get … at least 100 million covid vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days,” Biden said during a Dec. 8 news conference introducing key members of his health team."

[clo]

21 hours ago, njhorseman said:

and I don't suffer fools gladly.

That is I!

[1985rz1]

2 hours ago, Aloha 1 said:

Today per Dr. Marty McCarey,  head of the Johns Hopkins Health Policy Institute. Been averaging 900,000 per day and hit 1mm today. Seems Joe is late to the party.

No reason to make this political, as you did with your last sentence.

Edited January 24, 2021 by 1985rz1

[deadzone1003]

Aren't we still a constitutional republic?  The 10th amendment doesn't give the right to distribute vaccines to the Federal Government?  If so, where does it say so in the Constitution?  I guess the states could have asked the Federal Government to do the distribution of the vaccines, but I can't seemed to recall any states asking the Federal Government to do it.  Please don't mistake incompetence with a learning curve.  Right now, distribution rates for vaccines for states vary from below 40% to over 80%.  In a few weeks demand may exceed supply.  It is likely the supplies of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for the immediate future are all spoken for through contractual obligations.   Since the USA share of Moderna vaccine is 100,000,000 by end of March and Pfizer contractual obligations is the same as Moderna.  So, a million "vaccine shots" a day limit should take us to sometime in the middle of summer just using 1st quarter and earlier allotments.  If the states could receive their share of vaccines by the end of March and have two weeks to distribute their last shipment, the states would have given 200,000,000 vaccine shots in total.  Now, vaccinations started on Dec. 14 and we give the states until April 14 to use up all their allotments of vaccines from the 1st quarter and earlier.  We would have 122 days to distribute 200,000,000 vaccine shots - about 1.64 million shots a day.  What should we do?  Throw away 0.64 million vaccine shots a day in order for Dear Leader to be accurate or basks in his glory when he says under my leadership, our vaccine shots per day have exceeded all expectations.  

[librarian]

Some parts of Illinois have been quite efficient.  Our health department  puts on the web the times available and you register.  If you can't do it online then call to make an appointment. This week our 8 County area did 65 and over as the nursing homess have been completed. No waiting in line. Then shot 2 was scheduled 3 weeks away. Allare coming to a civic center. 5000 shots this past week. 3 more counties here this week and the beginning of teachers , bus drivers etc and day care workers. Our coubty here has 100000 people. Other counties likewise. 

[pinotlover]

19 minutes ago, 1985rz1 said:

No reason to make this political, as you did with your last sentence.

In that any discussion on whether one prefers Federal oversight on all things versus local control is political at the very roots, all other discussion on the issue is political by its nature. 
 

I believe some would prefer the Feds taking over scheduling and administration of the local Little League games.

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

I believe some would prefer the Feds taking over scheduling and administration of the local Little League games.

Some things are more important than others. Regulating COVID distribution and delivery is one of those things - especially in view of the fact that the current system is not working so well in many places.

After all, we have regulations that apply in all States - as they should. Not driving while drunk and wearing seatbelts are two that come to mind as not being left to States’ discretion.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Paulchili

[Sea42]

10 hours ago, Paulchili said:

After all, we have regulations that apply in all States - as they should. Not driving while drunk and wearing seatbelts are two that come to mind as not being left to States’ discretion.

Well, it was left to the states discretion. The states would lose federal funding but it was their choice😉

[RJB]

14 hours ago, Aloha 1 said:

Paul, the reason people were lining up overnite was the Health Departments set up a first come, first served, site. Ridiculous. That's when Gov. DeSantis went to Publix and had them use their already set up appointment system for vaccines . It has been a great success. Another example of private enterprise doing what government bureaucracy can't do.

 

As to the prior administration, the plan was get the vaccine to the States and have them administer. Remember Cuomo saying he would not allow the Feds to "dictate" how the vaccine would be distributed in NY? So the plan always was for the States to handle the final leg. Now we have learned how incompetent the States are.

Sure do agree with your comments.  Now lets all work together and get this done. 

[Daniel A]

12 minutes ago, Sea42 said:

Well, it was left to the states discretion. The states would lose federal funding but it was their choice😉

The Feds did the same with getting all of the states to go along with raising the drinking age and 55MPH speed limits and right turns on red lights.  The Feds incentivize the states through threats of withholding Federal Highway funds.

 

Each state was required to submit an acceptable distribution plan to the CDC by October 31, 2020.  If states didn't do what they said they would do doesn't make it the responsibility of the Federal Government.  Big Brother is restrained by the 10th Amendment to the US Constitution.

 

Drunk driving and no seat belts is not a Federal Offense outside of Federal Properties, not in the cities, towns and villages.

[pinotlover]

I’m not a one size fits all person. Guess that’s evident from my posting. Some States have a far higher percentage of old to very old residents than others. Some States feel it’s more important to get school staffs vaccinated quickly and kids safely back in school than others. I believe that local priorities should outweigh top down federal one size fits all directives. 
 

Our local institutions are doing a fairly good job of administering the limited supply of vaccines we are getting. Our issue is not waste or incompetence, but not enough vaccine. FWIW, our Democratic Party Governor has said we are not following the new President’s request. He believes it’s imperative to with hold enough vaccines to ensure supply for those to receive their second shots. He’s not going to “ bet on the come”, as the leader of his Party believes should be done.

 

CA elected their leaders. If they made mistakes during those elections perhaps recall elections are in order there. Maybe Newsom can just say his administration is to incompetent to perform the tasks and ask the Feds to take over in his State. Why burden all because a couple of States have poor leadership?

[Daniel A]

2 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

CA elected their leaders. If they made mistakes during those elections perhaps recall elections are in order there. Maybe Newsom can just say his administration is to incompetent to perform the tasks and ask the Feds to take over in his State. Why burden all because a couple of States have poor leadership?

I think Newsom should write a book telling everyone what a great job he's doing with Covid.