WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022

[Daniel A]

11 hours ago, caribill said:

 

The problem is that either you have everyone following the measures or hardly anybody will. 

 

If those who have been vaccinated walk around in public without masks, then so will most other people. Same with the other public measures.

You make a valid point here.  I think of all the public health measures which were promulgated, the two that have met the most resistance are wearing masks and overly broad quarantine requirements.  It may just as easily work in the reverse in that if strict quarantine and mask requirements are relaxed for fully vaccinated persons, that may act as an incentive for more people to get vaccinated.  Right now, the public health authorities are strenuously trying to convince a large percentage of the population to accept the vaccine.  If there is no visible benefit to taking the vaccine, fewer people will take it and if unvaccinated people see vaccinated people beginning to enjoy a partial return to normalcy that could be a strong incentive to relent and take the shot(s).  JMHO

[voljeep]

3 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

the two that have met the most resistance are wearing masks and overly broad quarantine requirements.

we will have no problem wearing masks ( will prolly do so in some situations even if not required ) - but the broad quarantine requirements must be addressed and defined before we cruise again

[caribill]

47 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

 It may just as easily work in the reverse in that if strict quarantine and mask requirements are relaxed for fully vaccinated persons, that may act as an incentive for more people to get vaccinated. 

 

I would think that for most people the good possibility of avoiding death would be enough incentive.

 

Of course for people who are entirely anti-vax and for those that believe the virus is a hoax, there is no possible incentive.

[Daniel A]

14 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

I would think that for most people the good possibility of avoiding death would be enough incentive.

 

Of course for people who are entirely anti-vax and for those that believe the virus is a hoax, there is no possible incentive.

One would think so.  My personal belief is that the majority of people hesitating about taking the vaccine aren't hardcore antivaxxers but they are being extremely cautious and aren't sure.  There are still people out there who won't wear a seat belt.  They will claim nonsense about the car catching fire or drowning in a lake when the large majority of people killed in crashes are un-seat belted people.  You can lead a horse to water.....

[caribill]

2 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

One would think so.  My personal belief is that the majority of people hesitating about taking the vaccine aren't hardcore antivaxxers but they are being extremely cautious and aren't sure. 

 

What is surprising to me is that in New York state up to 40% of health care workers, people who are on the front line and see people dying in front of their eyes almost every day, are refusing to be vaccinated.

[Daniel A]

5 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

What is surprising to me is that in New York state up to 40% of health care workers, people who are on the front line and see people dying in front of their eyes almost every day, are refusing to be vaccinated.

More left for the rest of us. 💉 

[HappyInVan]

37 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

What is surprising to me is that in New York state up to 40% of health care workers, people who are on the front line and see people dying in front of their eyes almost every day, are refusing to be vaccinated.

 

Consistent with other segments of the population...

 

"One-third of troops turning down Covid vaccine, Pentagon officials say"

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/17/troops-covid-vaccine-pentagon-469518

[mjmalino]

On 2/14/2021 at 8:32 PM, stevenr597 said:

Everything is pretty much in the air.  But here goes:

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

2) European Cruises including Trans-Atlantics....November 2021.

Cruising will be limited.  Proof of vaccination will be required.  

Actually, I think (OK, am hoping) that a partial Panama Canal cruise round trip from Ft. Lauderdale will be possible. Even if ports aren't open, there is a 3 hour port of call in Cristobal, Panama, which might be able to be made into a technical port, if necessary.

[mjmalino]

On 2/16/2021 at 2:21 PM, USCcruisecrazy said:

What are the groups currently being vaccinated in California?  It seems at 80+ you should have been in line by New Years or sooner.  In South carolina, we are currently processing appointments for 65 and over.  The biggest issue here is that vaccine distributions were not done smartly based on the population able to sign up and the areas they live.  In our county, we actually have plenty of vaccines because the aging population is lower.  Whereas certain areas like the Grand Strand that has a lot of transplant retirees has a much higher percent of 65+ living there.  DW has received both shots because she's the head nurse at the Residency program here...I am not so lucky because I am a baby at 61+.  But I hope to get the chance within a month to sign up.  I may get grouped with teachers and 60+. 

May I ask where in SC? I am in the Charleston area.

[nocl]

On 2/24/2021 at 6:08 AM, Daniel A said:

You make a valid point here.  I think of all the public health measures which were promulgated, the two that have met the most resistance are wearing masks and overly broad quarantine requirements.  It may just as easily work in the reverse in that if strict quarantine and mask requirements are relaxed for fully vaccinated persons, that may act as an incentive for more people to get vaccinated.  Right now, the public health authorities are strenuously trying to convince a large percentage of the population to accept the vaccine.  If there is no visible benefit to taking the vaccine, fewer people will take it and if unvaccinated people see vaccinated people beginning to enjoy a partial return to normalcy that could be a strong incentive to relent and take the shot(s).  JMHO

With the variants (including those that have some vaccine resistance) spreading fairly rapidly being vaccinated is not enough to stop other prevention measures as long as case counts are high.  Just gives vaccine resistant strains opportunity to spread.

[nocl]

On 2/17/2021 at 6:39 AM, JimmyVWine said:

The variant strains of Covid are far more widespread outside of the U.S. and are proving to be a game-changer in terms of readiness.  I think they will slow a return to cruising more than people realize.  They are mentioned and reported on here in the U.S., but we haven't been overwhelmed by these more serious, more spreadable variants...yet.  I heard it reported yesterday that we are essentially in a footrace between vaccination and being inundated by another wave of peak infection/death rates and it is anybody's guess which side will win that race.  In the end, I think that these variant strains all but assure that cruising cannot return in earnest until vaccinations are extremely widespread. 

You have variants, with vaccine resistant mutations, making up an increasing percentage of cases in California and New York.   Two home grown CA variants have that trait.  They are here and they are spreading.  Basically it means that even with vaccination other spread preventive measures such as distancing and masks must be continued.

[Daniel A]

10 hours ago, nocl said:

With the variants (including those that have some vaccine resistance) spreading fairly rapidly being vaccinated is not enough to stop other prevention measures as long as case counts are high.  Just gives vaccine resistant strains opportunity to spread.

I was under the impression that Moderna and Pfizer (currently the only two permitted in the US) protected against the known variants.  I thought AZ was the one having some reduced efficacy.  Am I working from a misunderstanding?

[wowzz]

29 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I was under the impression that Moderna and Pfizer (currently the only two permitted in the US) protected against the known variants.  I thought AZ was the one having some reduced efficacy.  Am I working from a misunderstanding?

Latest research from Scotland shows that the AZ efficacy was slightly better than the Pfizer one, but by such a small margin as to be virtually irrelevant.

[Daniel A]

35 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Latest research from Scotland shows that the AZ efficacy was slightly better than the Pfizer one, but by such a small margin as to be virtually irrelevant.

I thought AZ wasn't as effective against the SA variant.  I wasn't referencing overall efficacy, just efficacy against the variant.

[wowzz]

31 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I thought AZ wasn't as effective against the SA variant.  I wasn't referencing overall efficacy, just efficacy against the variant.

Lots of information available out there. Depending on what you read, you will get differing views.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-news-reports-that-the-oxford-az-vaccine-gives-limited-protection-against-mild-disease-caused-by-the-south-african-variant-of-sars-cov-2/?cli_action=1614350232.539

[san diego sue]

California is currently vaccinating 65 and older. We got our second vaccine  shots this Wednesday. Here in San Diego there are so many sites opened giving shots. Strange however, when you try to get appts. very difficult to find one. People have tried in the middle of  the night and early mornings to schedule appts and that seems to work. We got ours at our medical center , just went to their  site and booked it. Got the  Pfizer vaccine.

[nocl]

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I was under the impression that Moderna and Pfizer (currently the only two permitted in the US) protected against the known variants.  I thought AZ was the one having some reduced efficacy.  Am I working from a misunderstanding?

Pfizer and Moderna show some results in the lab, but not tested in trials against the variants. J&J did encounter the SA variant in its trials and showed some, but lower efficacy. The SA government stopped using the AZ vaccine after its trial showed no efficacy against the SA variant in mild to moderate illness.

 

The expectations for Pfizer and Moderna is that they will have some, but lowered efficacy.

 

The problem is new variants showing. There are 2 new ones that appeared in California that appear to also have some resistance to the vaccines.

[c-boy]

🤔 with all this , it does .... it doesn't  can be confusing.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/25/california-coronavirus-variant-covid-vaccine

Will the vaccine protect people against these various variants?

Researchers have found that vaccines may be slightly less effective against the variants first found in South Africa because mutations on the surface spike proteins make that variant less recognizable to the some antibodies the immune system produces to find the intruding virus. Drug developers are now working to adapt vaccines to make them even more effective against these new, emerging variants.

But all evidence indicates that the ones currently approved in the US have been, and will continue to protect people against the California variant.

“Experiments need to be done to test the effectiveness of the antibody response elicited by the vaccines against the B.1.427/B.1.429 variants,” said Christopher Barnes, a biochemist at Caltech who has been studying how vaccines respond to variants. But, he added, “reduced responses are still effective because of the powerful immune response produced by the vaccines”.

That’s because the Covid-19 vaccines push the immune system to develop a range of defenses against the virus. Vaccines trigger the body to create antibodies that attack the virus, but they also alert helper t-cells, which can raise alarm about the invading infection and galvanize other cells to help fight it, and killer t-cells – which seek out and destroy the virus. In addition, special cells called memory b-cells and memory t-cells retain information about the invading virus for months or years. 

[USCcruisecrazy]

15 hours ago, mjmalino said:

May I ask where in SC? I am in the Charleston area.

I'm originally a Myrtle Beach guy, but currently living in Sumter.  I'm a contractor on Shaw AFB.

[Tedferg]

2 hours ago, c-boy said:

🤔 with all this , it does .... it doesn't  can be confusing.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/25/california-coronavirus-variant-covid-vaccine

Will the vaccine protect people against these various variants?

n, special cells called memory b-cells and memory t-cells retain information about the invading virus for months or years. 

I saw an article that said survivors of Spanish flu showed T Cells 90 years later. 

[megolf4]

19 hours ago, mjmalino said:

Actually, I think (OK, am hoping) that a partial Panama Canal cruise round trip from Ft. Lauderdale will be possible. Even if ports aren't open, there is a 3 hour port of call in Cristobal, Panama, which might be able to be made into a technical port, if necessary.

 

[megolf4]

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

 

Not debating it, but what's the source of this statement? 

I looked at the Princess news site today and didn't see this report.  I'm booked for a July 24 trip on the Regal Princess, Mediterranean, roundtrip London.  Next month I'm suppose to lay out a bunch of money. Having been canceled twice since nonsense started, I am reluctant to do so.  Sure wish Princess would tell us what they're waiting to know before making a go-no go decision on this cruise.  I'd hate to again plop down money in April only to be told in May they've canceled or changed the itinerary.

[Daniel A]

57 minutes ago, megolf4 said:

Sure wish Princess would tell us what they're waiting to know before making a go-no go decision on this cruise.  I'd hate to again plop down money in April only to be told in May they've canceled or changed the itinerary.

I'm sure Princess wishes the public health authorities would tell them what they'll want and demand before they can even look at a go-no go decision.  Trust me, Princess wants you on that ship for that sailing.  I can't really say that for the CDC or EU.

[mjmalino]

1 hour ago, megolf4 said:

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

 

Not debating it, but what's the source of this statement? 

I looked at the Princess news site today and didn't see this report.  I'm booked for a July 24 trip on the Regal Princess, Mediterranean, roundtrip London.  Next month I'm suppose to lay out a bunch of money. Having been canceled twice since nonsense started, I am reluctant to do so.  Sure wish Princess would tell us what they're waiting to know before making a go-no go decision on this cruise.  I'd hate to again plop down money in April only to be told in May they've canceled or changed the itinerary.

Actually, back in October the CDC with the Framework for conditional cruising, they stated no cruises in or out of the US longer than 7 days until November 1. Here is one article about it. I was going to post the link the the cdc, but the framework is 40 pages long, so I chose an article instead.

https://www.porthole.com/cdc-lifts-no-sail-order-outlines-cruise-return/

[mjmalino]

34 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I'm sure Princess wishes the public health authorities would tell them what they'll want and demand before they can even look at a go-no go decision.  Trust me, Princess wants you on that ship for that sailing.  I can't really say that for the CDC or EU.

Absolutely, all of these cruise lines are patiently waiting for direction from the CDC. The CDC came out with their Framework back in October, and was supposed to provide additional guidance in order for the cruise lines to begin their test cruises. The CDC still has not provided that guidance.