HAL. As an Investment?

[rkacruiser]

3 hours ago, drowelf said:

 

We consider our arrangement with our FA as a partnership of sorts. We've been working together for almost 25 years now. We often discuss the pros & cons of various investments. But at the end of the day, its my investments, so when I say buy or sell he executes, I'll listen to his opinion, but its my decision at the end. Over the years, we made some good picks, so not so good, we've sold some positions too soon and others too late, but we've outperformed the 20 year moderate risk target, so I'm pretty happy. We've left some good money on the table, but never taken any serious losses. 

 

Thanks for your post!

[iancal]

We learned a long time ago.....emotion has no place in investing. 

 

We may admire a company, enjoy it's product, think their management is great but all that is completely meaningless from an investment perspective unless the numbers...the risk/reward are all  'good'.  Otherwise it is thanks but no thanks.

Edited February 25, 2021 by iancal

[USN59-79]

I am first to admit that although I own some stock, I am certainly not an expert.  Can someone explain to me that after Carnival has taken on an additional 3.5 billion dollars in debt this month and just announced that they will be issuing a billion dollars in new stock while their current stock is rated as junk status why their stock is increasing in value?

[Lido - Lanai]

1 hour ago, USN59-79 said:

their current stock is rated as junk status

The term "junk" does not pertain to their stock. It's a term related to their bonds.

Corporate bonds rated Ba1/BB+ and lower (by Moody's S&P) are termed junk bonds, a somewhat misleading term in many cases.

Current stock prices no doubt reflect optimism in future earnings potential..... obviously some risk associated with such optimism. 

[rkacruiser]

19 hours ago, USN59-79 said:

I am first to admit that although I own some stock, I am certainly not an expert.  Can someone explain to me that after Carnival has taken on an additional 3.5 billion dollars in debt this month and just announced that they will be issuing a billion dollars in new stock while their current stock is rated as junk status why their stock is increasing in value?

 

I wonder the same.  

 

Thanks be to all of those who anticipate cruising in late 2021-2022-2023 providing deposits to CCL.  That is their current revenue stream.  There is no doubt, I don't think, that the desire to cruise again exists.  The market is there.  But, what will be the reality when the requirements that must be met by those guests that are making these bookings become known?  

[rodndonna]

A couple of days late on this, but a positive story on the  future of the industry .. my obligatory 100 share OBC may be safe yet ...

 

CCL upgraded from Neutral to Outperform on 03-02-2021

http://www.dailymaxoptions.com/ccl-upgraded-from-neutral-to-outperform-on-03-02-2021/

[DaveOKC]

On 2/24/2021 at 11:51 PM, USN59-79 said:

I am first to admit that although I own some stock, I am certainly not an expert.  Can someone explain to me that after Carnival has taken on an additional 3.5 billion dollars in debt this month and just announced that they will be issuing a billion dollars in new stock while their current stock is rated as junk status why their stock is increasing in value?

Does not make sense to me either.  I think that all the positive hopes for return cruising and the pent up demand has gotten ahead of itself.  IMO, the value of all the cruiselines at this point are a bit high.

[rkacruiser]

10 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

IMO, the value of all the cruiselines at this point are a bit high.

 

Agree.  So, what is an individual investor to do?  

 

I am looking forward to trying to attend CCL's Annual Meeting which, I am sure, will be virtual and learning whatever I can.  Have received no shareholder information for 2020 thus far.  Have you?  

 

[DaveOKC]

23 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Does not make sense to me either.  I think that all the positive hopes for return cruising and the pent up demand has gotten ahead of itself.  IMO, the value of all the cruiselines at this point are a bit high.

Great timing by me - at Noon the next day after posting this I saw that CCL was down over $3.50 or over 15%.  Finished the day down almost 5%

[YXU AC*SE]

On 3/5/2021 at 7:36 AM, rodndonna said:

A couple of days late on this, but a positive story on the  future of the industry

 

'One swallow makes no summer, nor does one day.'   -- Aristotle. 

Scott. 

[YXU AC*SE]

16 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

Have received no shareholder information for 2020 thus far.  Have you?  

 

Their annual report has been on the public record since 26 January. 

SEC filed version:  https://sec.report/Document/0000815097-21-000027/pdfofform10k.pdf

 

Scott. 

[rodndonna]

23 minutes ago, YXU AC*SE said:

 

'One swallow makes no summer, nor does one day.'   -- Aristotle. 

Scott. 

 

yes- it is just one analyst. My point was it is something positive (first upgrade in maybe 6 months?) - so while not earth shattering - it is nice to see ANYONE financial analyst upgrade a cruise stock.

 

Hopefully one of many small steps for this industry to come - on a looonnngg path to recovery (-:

 

[YXU AC*SE]

26 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

 

yes- it is just one analyst. My point was it is something positive (first upgrade in maybe 6 months?) - so while not earth shattering - it is nice to see ANYONE financial analyst upgrade a cruise stock.

 

 

Actually, analysts from Macquarie, Stifel Nicolaus, JP Morgan, and Barclays all have buy ratings on CLL w/ target prices of 25$ - 31$ USD, w/ ratings updated as recent as this past Monday as you noted. (More detail/colour on that upgrade here:  https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-get-upgraded-by-macquarie-because-covids-worst-is-in-the-past-51614698907)    So, agreed, not doom and gloom for some?  Flip side, of course, are the sell-side ratings w/ targets as low as 14$ USD. 

 

I'd be more looking at the activity of CCL itself? Going to market w/ another 3.5$B in senior unsecured debt looks like they're betting there is more runway to pave w/ ships sitting idle.  At an estimated 600$M Q1 2021 cash burn rate, that gives them another 25 weeks or so.  

 

So the question I would look to answer, is what is a realistic outlook for resumption of cruising, and is that reflected in the [ir]rational exuberance [*dependent upon one's POV] that is juicing CLL's price rn.   🙂    Scott. 

Edited March 6, 2021 by YXU AC*SE

[rkacruiser]

7 hours ago, YXU AC*SE said:

 

Their annual report has been on the public record since 26 January. 

SEC filed version:  https://sec.report/Document/0000815097-21-000027/pdfofform10k.pdf

 

Scott. 

 

Has anyone received hard copies of the reports along with proxy statements?  January 1, 2021 was a date when investors needed to make a choice as to how to receive these reports and proxies.  I made my choice.  I have received nothing.

[Hlitner]

The key to any financial projection are the assumptions.   No amount of accounting education can prepare one for the current COVID situation with CCL and the other major cruise lines.   How on earth (perhaps I should say on sea) can any accountant predict when and how operations will resume.   The key to the survival of CCL is how soon they can resume operations at a profitable level and that remains an unknown.  At this point I think investing in any cruise line (with the exception of MSC which has another revenue source) is akin to playing craps.  You toss the dice and you take your chance.

 

Hank

[RuthC]

6 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

Has anyone received hard copies of the reports along with proxy statements? 

No, not yet. But I think it's a bit early in the year. I remember them coming a few weeks from now. 

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

11 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Has anyone received hard copies of the reports along with proxy statements?  January 1, 2021 was a date when investors needed to make a choice as to how to receive these reports and proxies.  I made my choice.  I have received nothing.

I get them Emailed.  

Edited March 7, 2021 by Gail & Marty sailing away

[rkacruiser]

10 minutes ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

I get them Emailed.  

 

I chose hard copies.  

 

If I got e-mailed reports for the investments that I have, I would spend hours and hours and hours sifting through all of that wordage on line.  

[YXU AC*SE]

34 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Has anyone received hard copies of the reports along with proxy statements?  

 

If past is prologue, the distributed version should be out around now ...       Scott. 

 

Edited March 7, 2021 by YXU AC*SE

[iancal]

Whether or not to invest really depends on your investment profile.   What your investment objectives are, your risk tolerance, short or long term investor, capital growth or income......  There will be no one answer that fits everyone.

[rodndonna]

On 2/11/2021 at 2:55 PM, Mary229 said:

I think we know.  We all have different balance sheets and different risk-reward profiles.  I venture to guess that most people on this HAL board have spent their lives managing their finances well clearing understanding the risks involved

 

I fully agree - and way beyond the scope of discussion on a 'cruise' forum.

 

With regards to the OP though - although the title is says "HAL as an investment"  it seemed more the poster was asking if people think it will survive financially as their "investment" is FCC''s

 

So top the OP - I for one am becoming more confident making our way through 2021 that CCL and other major cruise lines will financially survive and be belting out Gloria Gaynor;s "I WILL SURVIVE!" by New Years 2022.

[Mary229]

43 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

With regards to the OP though - although the title is says "HAL as an investment"  it seemed more the poster was asking if people think it will survive financially as their "investment" is FCC''s

I agree and I answered that in an earlier post.  I just think this thread has gone off the rails a bit.  In my collectibles business I have often been asked about investments and I always tell the customer if you are asking your gallery dealer for investment advice it is time to head to Vanguard!  I think the same could be said for asking a cruise forum for "investment analysis". But again, I do think weighing the risk/reward of FCCs is definitely a valid question.

[mcrcruiser]

I wouldn't touch any cruise line stock for a very very long time  . There are so many better investments out  there   &  with good paying dividends   .Thus ,why touch  these cruise line stocks even though they can give extra OBCs  .Far too much debt weighing all of them down & a very uncertain future 

[mcrcruiser]

Apparently HAL has reduced the FCCs  as well  .They have been cut in half  of what they once were  

Edited March 8, 2021 by mcrcruiser

[HAL4NOW]

5 hours ago, rodndonna said:

I for one am becoming more confident making our way through 2021 that CCL and other major cruise lines will financially survive and be belting out Gloria Gaynor;s "I WILL SURVIVE!" by New Years 2022.

Hopefully not like the Alien Song Version of I will survive, where the giant mirror disco ball smashes the singing alien. A classic you can find on YouTube, if you haven't seen it before now