100% vaccinated sailings

[Indianadaytripper]

9 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Cruise companies can demand 100% inoculation. But, will still need to observe masking/distancing.

 

Pfizer/Moderna may provide 95% protection against serious symptoms. But, that means 1/20 is unprotected. On a 4k passenger ship, that's 200 pax. Let's not repeat the Ruby Princess disaster.

 

In addition, there will be fake documents. Already available in Mexico...

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/two-air-passengers-fined-10k-201253990.html

 

Those poor fellow travelers on the plane!!!

If someone feels so secure to fake vaccination documents let them get the virus and pay the huge ships doctors bills trying saving them.

[HappyInVan]

3 minutes ago, Indianadaytripper said:

If someone feels so secure to fake vaccination documents let them get the virus and pay the huge ships doctors bills trying saving them.

 

IMO, the real concern is that the pax with fake vax may be asymptomatic. Passing on the disease to vulnerable pax who may die. 🙄

Edited February 19, 2021 by HappyInVan

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

IMO, the real concern is that the pax with fake vax may be asymptomatic. Passing on the disease to vulnerable pax who may die. 🙄

And also cause a quarantine and a shortened voyage. And in the long run, possibly the end of the cruise industry entirely due to the bad publicity when nothing seems to stop the virus on ships.

[Indianadaytripper]

6 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

And also cause a quarantine and a shortened voyage. And in the long run, possibly the end of the cruise industry entirely due to the bad publicity when nothing seems to stop the virus on ships.

For those with this concern, then it would probably be best to stay home and watch videos in the safety of their home.

[Essiesmom]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

Cruise companies can demand 100% inoculation. But, will still need to observe masking/distancing.

 

Pfizer/Moderna may provide 95% protection against serious symptoms. But, that means 1/20 is unprotected. On a 4k passenger ship, that's 200 pax. Let's not repeat the Ruby Princess disaster.

 

In addition, there will be fake documents. Already available in Mexico...

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/two-air-passengers-fined-10k-201253990.html

 

Those poor fellow travelers on the plane!!!

I'm not sure where you get the idea that 95% means only 95% of the passengers are protected.  95% means that each passenger is 95% protected.  There is no 5% that aren't.  EM

Edited February 19, 2021 by Essiesmom

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, Essiesmom said:

I'm not sure where you get the idea that 95% means only 95% of the passengers are protected.  95% means that each passenger is 95% protected.  There is no 5% that aren't.  EM

And if they do catch it, it will be much less severe. No one in the trials died or even required being hospitalized from Covid.

[idiebabe]

4 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Nobody knows. All speculation at this point.

Agree that nobody knows!   Crystal is requiring all be vaccinated but will the other Cruise Lines?  If they do, what about the children!  They are not ready yet to be vaccinated and people have Cruises booked with their kids.  Our TA in October has some Children booked on it.  Carnival, RCL, NCL, etc. cater to Families.   It is all speculation at this time with regards to whether the Cruise Lines will require the Vaccine or what the Ports will require to let the Ships in.

[deliver42]

Viking cruises, all versions, will now require Covid vaccines prior to boarding. Must be after 14 days of the 2nd shot.

[cruisegirl]

On 2/19/2021 at 11:03 AM, Essiesmom said:

I'm not sure where you get the idea that 95% means only 95% of the passengers are protected.  95% means that each passenger is 95% protected.  There is no 5% that aren't.  EM

I had to smile when I saw you had listed the Weehawken Ferry among your cruises. I lived in New Jersey a number of years and was a frequent passenger. 

[syesmar]

That stats on preventing severity and death after vaccination are amazing to me. This article breaks down what “efficacy” means, which is even better than the first impression https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

 

I do wish we knew how many trial participants continued to mask or distance, to give more guidance on these behaviors going forward. I guess time will tell as more get vaccinated how much longer these protocols will be needed.

[Tampa Girl]

On 2/18/2021 at 12:19 PM, leerathje said:

 

Is the US vaccinating non-citizens?  How would the crew members get vaccinated?

 

L.

 

And mine as well.  We will not be cruising until the mask and social distancing have been lifted.

[KirkNC]

35 minutes ago, Tampa Girl said:

And mine as well.  We will not be cruising until the mask and social distancing have been lifted.

I suspect you won’t be cruising for a while.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, Tampa Girl said:

And mine as well.  We will not be cruising until the mask and social distancing have been lifted.

And just maybe the vaccines can accomplish that if they also stop people from spreading the virus.

 

Covid Vaccines Work. They Likely Also Reduce Transmission (msn.com)

[nocl]

On 2/19/2021 at 10:12 AM, ontheweb said:

And if they do catch it, it will be much less severe. No one in the trials died or even required being hospitalized from Covid.

However the trials were only 30 to 40,000.

 

Data from Israel in a larger population indicates

 

According to the data released by the ministry, the vaccine is also 99.2% protective against serious illness, reduces morbidity by 95.8% and decreases the chance of hospitalization by 98.9%.

[nocl]

On 2/22/2021 at 6:47 AM, syesmar said:

That stats on preventing severity and death after vaccination are amazing to me. This article breaks down what “efficacy” means, which is even better than the first impression https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

 

I do wish we knew how many trial participants continued to mask or distance, to give more guidance on these behaviors going forward. I guess time will tell as more get vaccinated how much longer these protocols will be needed.

The protocols would have instructed trial participants on best avoidance practices.  That is why the efficacy is measured on number of cases that occurred in each arm,  not total number of cases vs trial population and community incidence.

[CruiserBruce]

33 minutes ago, nocl said:

However the trials were only 30 to 40,000.

 

Data from Israel in a larger population indicates

 

According to the data released by the ministry, the vaccine is also 99.2% protective against serious illness, reduces morbidity by 95.8% and decreases the chance of hospitalization by 98.9%.

How many should they do in trials? The 30-40K is industry standard for Phase 3.

[ontheweb]

37 minutes ago, nocl said:

However the trials were only 30 to 40,000.

 

Data from Israel in a larger population indicates

 

According to the data released by the ministry, the vaccine is also 99.2% protective against serious illness, reduces morbidity by 95.8% and decreases the chance of hospitalization by 98.9%.

Those are still very impressive numbers. Reaching 100% would be a totally unrealistic goal. 

[nocl]

53 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Those are still very impressive numbers. Reaching 100% would be a totally unrealistic goal. 

Impressive, but just pointing out that all risk is not removed only greatly reduced.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

Impressive, but just pointing out that all risk is not removed only greatly reduced.

If we are to wait until everything is 100% risk free, we will never get there.

 

I remember when it was said that the proposed vaccines could be approved with an efficacy of 50%. Now we get them at basically 95%, and there is still complaints that it is not perfect.

[HappyInVan]

As expected, there is good news (from the UK) about the Pzifer vax. There is now a large data set from reports in the field.

 

“In the over 80s, the jab is 57 percent effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 three to four weeks after the first dose. This rises to more than 85 percent after the second dose.

 

In this group, those who become infected after vaccination are around 40 percent less likely to be hospitalized, compared with the non-vaccinated. And they are 56 percent less at risk of dying at least 14 days after receiving the first dose.”

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-coronavirus-vaccines-cutting-hospitalization-and-death-rates/

 

Means that many lives will be saved. But, the vulnerable will likely have to wear masks and exercise caution until community spread is near zero. 

 

“The younger vaccinated group — health care workers under 65 — showed a 72 percent protection against infection with a single dose, rising to 85 percent after the second dose. Health care workers in the study are tested every two weeks.”

 

Suggests that there is still a significant chance (15%) of infection and being infectious. Still requires protection in areas with significant community spread.

 

The data suggest that cruise ships will still have to test and test pax. With safety precautions necessary in areas where there is significant community spread.

 

That was the good news. Today, the UK variant is evolving features of the South African variants. Resistant to the Pfizer/Moderna/AZ/Novavax vax. How much?

 

Novavax trial in South Africa says reduction in efficacy from 89% (in the UK) to 49% (average in the country).

 

So, another wave is possible if restrictions are relaxed, and people get careless. There will be boosters in a few months. Necessary for the vulnerable and frontline workers. Recommended for everyone else.

 

But, covid will still be festering and evolving as long as there is significant community spread.

 

Would it be simpler to have a shutdown like Melbourne? North America could be cruising by October.

 

 

 

 

[nocl]

58 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

How many should they do in trials? The 30-40K is industry standard for Phase 3.

The trial design was correct for the incidence of the disease and the time frame in which they were trying to get results.  There is no standard size.  The size is determined by a number of factors including length, 

 

They were also only designed to determine efficacy in symptomatic disease with a limited number of infections.  If I recall correctly the Pfizer data had 150 cases that yielded the efficacy numbers.  Even without vaccine 150 cases would end up with 1 fatality.  

 

One must always keep in mind the purpose of the trials and their limitations.  That is why there is after market surveillance both for the purposes of looking for side effects that were not captured in the trials but to also look at product performance in very large numbers of treated individuals in different real life circumstances.

[nocl]

37 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

If we are to wait until everything is 100% risk free, we will never get there.

 

I remember when it was said that the proposed vaccines could be approved with an efficacy of 50%. Now we get them at basically 95%, and there is still complaints that it is not perfect.

No complaints.

 

I was just providing more accurate information to your comment about no hospitalizations or deaths in the trial and inferring that would prevent them in the real world use.

[Tampa Girl]

On 2/19/2021 at 7:10 AM, ontheweb said:

DW definitely not only does not like that, she absolutely HATES it! She was super fine with Friday shots since if there was a reaction it would not cause her to miss a teaching day. (I think the last time she took a sick day was when she had emergency surgery, and that was not this century.)

 

Also she cited the 28 days you were supposed to have between the Moderna vaccines. I reassured here when I read somewhere on these boards that it is supposed to be within 42 days, We better not have another delay!

 

I think it means that people will have completed the full vaccine regimen no later than 14 days prior to boarding.  Your post seems to indicate that you read it to mean "within 14 days" prior to boarding, at least that is what surmised from your remarks about DW hating to miss a teaching day.

[Tampa Girl]

On 2/23/2021 at 11:03 AM, KirkNC said:

I suspect you won’t be cruising for a while.

 

I suspect that you are right.  More's the pity.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

I think it means that people will have completed the full vaccine regimen no later than 14 days prior to boarding.  Your post seems to indicate that you read it to mean "within 14 days" prior to boarding, at least that is what surmised from your remarks about DW hating to miss a teaching day.

Obviously we do not have a cruise leaving soon. Our first shots were on a Friday, and the seconds scheduled 4 weeks later also on a Friday. She was figuring any reaction would be over before school started again on a Monday. They are now next Monday, and if the second shot knocks her for a loop, there goes the next school day.

 

For the first shot, she had no reaction while my arm was painful for a while. The opposite happened the last time we had our flu shots.