New Cancellations Just Listed for NCL Today

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, hallux said:

I think it would have been in the news by now if this was the case.

 

Two theories - 

NCL is just the first of the lines to actually cancel while experiencing issues hiring enough crew, possibly pulling the trigger earlier in the process than other lines.

 

NCL was late to the game hiring crew and everyone that was eligible (some of the countries where many of the crew live may not be allowing travel out or travel from those countries to where they need to be may be restricted) has been hired by them or other lines and there simply aren't enough to crew the rest of the ships.

 

A third theory - well, I won't say that one as it might violate the red banner, but you can probably draw a conclusion on that one...

 

I wouldn't bet on any negotiations reaching the media accidently.

 

First theory has merit. We will see if the other cruise lines actually sail. We do know that Celebrity and RCL are sailing in north america already so they are a step ahead.

 

Second theory also have merit, but I would add that it appears NCL maybe the least desirable of the big 3 to work for. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they stop crew pay before the others? And it seems I remember them charging crew while in quarantine for basics? Again, someone will hopefully chime in. My memory is getting sketchy and I don't follow crew news as closely as I should.

 

They do have an opportunity to capture a niche market of those who only want 100% vaccination, but the question becomes 'at what cost?". NCL is a family line. Banning children comes with a price. It's all still very fluid.

[ChiefMateJRK]

33 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

They do have an opportunity to capture a niche market of those who only want 100% vaccination, but the question becomes 'at what cost?". 

Based upon feedback here on the forum, I believe that 100% vaccinated is much more than a "niche market."  It seems to be the vast majority of the market.  Of course, none of this is statistically valid.

[casofilia]

Have you noticed the change?

 

The wording about the 10% certificate has changed with the latest cancellations.   The statement is now:-

 

Additionally, a 10% off coupon will be automatically added to the guest's account, if the guest has not already received one for a previously cancelled sailing or an account that currently has a 10% coupon.

 

That now means that no matter how many cruises they cancel you will only ever get ONE 10% off certificate.

[ALD18]

Sad to see any cancellation.  We were booked for January 2022 and bailed some time ago.  Re booked same cruise for 2023.  With so many other countries still battling virus, companies struggling to get crew/passengers vaccinated, and continuous global problems we're giving it another year for dust to settle.  Don't like it, but prudent thing to do, for us.

[JamieLogical]

24 minutes ago, casofilia said:

Have you noticed the change?

 

The wording about the 10% certificate has changed with the latest cancellations.   The statement is now:-

 

Additionally, a 10% off coupon will be automatically added to the guest's account, if the guest has not already received one for a previously cancelled sailing or an account that currently has a 10% coupon.

 

That now means that no matter how many cruises they cancel you will only ever get ONE 10% off certificate.

 

That's not new. I have had five cruises cancelled by NCL thus far and still only had one 10% coupon on my account (currently applied to a Breakaway sailing out of NYC to Bermuda).

[Seany527]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Second theory also have merit, but I would add that it appears NCL maybe the least desirable of the big 3 to work for. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they stop crew pay before the others? And it seems I remember them charging crew while in quarantine for basics? Again, someone will hopefully chime in. My memory is getting sketchy and I don't follow crew news as closely as I should.

I think you are correct. They were allotted a certain amount of dollars each day for pretty common items.
 

I follow some crew members on social media from various cruises I have been on. About 75% of NCL crew I follow is either still at home or has transferred to MSC. So it either means NCL is bad to work for or MSC gave the agency in their home country employment opportunities before NCL did. 

[GA Dave]

4 minutes ago, Seany527 said:

I think you are correct. They were allotted a certain amount of dollars each day for pretty common items.
 

I follow some crew members on social media from various cruises I have been on. About 75% of NCL crew I follow is either still at home or has transferred to MSC. So it either means NCL is bad to work for or MSC gave the agency in their home country employment opportunities before NCL did. 

And remember that NCL sent a ship (Joy?) to the typical places where employees come from and brought them all to Europe for a restart.  Then, a short time later, they sent them all home again.  You have to wonder if those people ever saw any money for all of that effort, and if they may be now saying, "Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me".  I do know RCCL just sent 650 employees and their plus ones on a free test cruise.  That has to help employee morale.

[mapleleaves]

10 minutes ago, Seany527 said:

About 75% of NCL crew I follow is either still at home or has transferred to MSC. So it either means NCL is bad to work for or MSC gave the agency in their home country employment opportunities before NCL did. 

 

Or maybe they went to work for MSC because MSC is sailing already ?? 

 

I'm bummed that my Oct DAWN cruise was cancelled, but it is what it is. 

Certainly no one on this board knows the reason, but I'm sure there will be plenty of guessing and speculating.  

[MichiganBound]

1 hour ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Based upon feedback here on the forum, I believe that 100% vaccinated is much more than a "niche market."  It seems to be the vast majority of the market.  Of course, none of this is statistically valid.

I agree with you.  Sailing with 100% vaccination of all passenger and crew seems to be a strong preference of most NCL cruisers on this forum.  It's not niche at all.

[casofilia]

@JamieLogical

 

If you have received more than one cancellation notice prior to the one issued in the last 24 hours could I suggest you read those very critically and logically as a pedantic lawyer would and then compare with what has been promulgated today. 

 If you do that you Will see that there is a whole new meaning in "today's".   While they had intended to say what they said "today" in the previous one they didn't.

[classy_cruiser]

So what ships ARE actually sailing in 2021 at this point? I haven’t seen  anything about Jade Greek Isles being cancelled. Does the jade already have crew and vaccines? Hoping it stays on the schedule 

[GA Dave]

2 hours ago, classy_cruiser said:

So what ships ARE actually sailing in 2021 at this point? I haven’t seen  anything about Jade Greek Isles being cancelled. Does the jade already have crew and vaccines? Hoping it stays on the schedule 

There are quite a few cruise ships currently sailing all over the world, however none are from NCL.  Therefore, no one can give you an answer on which ships from NCL will actually sail in 2021.  Could be some, could be none.  Other brands seem to be having much better luck getting restarted (i.e., MSC, RCCL).

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, MichiganBound said:

I agree with you.  Sailing with 100% vaccination of all passenger and crew seems to be a strong preference of most NCL cruisers on this forum.  It's not niche at all.

 

I agree that based on this forum, there appears to be a strong preference for 100% vaccination, but this forum only represents 3-4% of cruisers in general (basic math). Generously speaking, we may get to 60% vaccination in the USA. Another portion will reach natural immunity, but they will be banned from this 100% niche market. Of those remaining, you need to eliminate all cruisers who want/need to sail with children. Then you need to eliminate those who don't insist on 100% and are fine with 95%. To limit the numbers even more, it appears to me that there is a fair amount of cc members who want to start with 100% but are willing to ease back restrictions as successful sailings increase. None of this considers NCL business model which is family focused (they would have better chance with longer sailings on Oceana where the general age is higher). NCL ships aren't selling out so. IMO; It's a niche market, and likely a temporary one at best.

[ChiefMateJRK]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I agree that based on this forum, there appears to be a strong preference for 100% vaccination, but this forum only represents 3-4% of cruisers in general (basic math). Generously speaking, we may get to 60% vaccination in the USA. Another portion will reach natural immunity, but they will be banned from this 100% niche market. Of those remaining, you need to eliminate all cruisers who want/need to sail with children. Then you need to eliminate those who don't insist on 100% and are fine with 95%. To limit the numbers even more, it appears to me that there is a fair amount of cc members who want to start with 100% but are willing to ease back restrictions as successful sailings increase. None of this considers NCL business model which is family focused (they would have better chance with longer sailings on Oceana where the general age is higher). NCL ships aren't selling out so. IMO; It's a niche market, and likely a temporary one at best.

Are the other lines selling out faster than NCL?

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Are the other lines selling out faster than NCL?

 

To be fair, I'm not certain of capacity ratios of all the other lines, but if 100% vaccinated was a strong marketing strategy, you would expect NCL to be selling out faster and I don't believe that is true. Bookings on the Gem/Joy were low enough for NCL to cancel the sailings and given availability, the bookings to Alaska appear to be slow to sell also. In the meantime, Celebrity and RCL are sailing. 

 

Again, if offering 100% vaccinated sailings was a selling point, we would expect NCL to sell. Time will tell. If I'm wrong, and 100% vaccinated sailings is what people want long term, we should expect that NCL will sell out all their cruises since they have monopolized that market share. Smart on the part of NCL. We'll know the answer shortly. 

[ChiefMateJRK]

52 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

To be fair, I'm not certain of capacity ratios of all the other lines, but if 100% vaccinated was a strong marketing strategy, you would expect NCL to be selling out faster and I don't believe that is true. Bookings on the Gem/Joy were low enough for NCL to cancel the sailings and given availability, the bookings to Alaska appear to be slow to sell also. In the meantime, Celebrity and RCL are sailing. 

 

Again, if offering 100% vaccinated sailings was a selling point, we would expect NCL to sell. Time will tell. If I'm wrong, and 100% vaccinated sailings is what people want long term, we should expect that NCL will sell out all their cruises since they have monopolized that market share. Smart on the part of NCL. We'll know the answer shortly. 

Yeah, but it's not really a level playing field.  NCL's 100% vaccinated, while perhaps a strong marketing draw, may cause too many unknowns in FLA right now.  We've seen reports (today) that NCL's first AK cruise has sold out (albeit, at some level of reduced capacity).  We really won't know how this all plays out for months.  I personally don't understand why people are booking cruises on ships that will require them to wear masks and separate, but to each his/her own....  Even if I wasn't inclined to vaccinate, I would likely change my mind if it meant having a nicer vacation.  I obviously don't share the extreme views (on either end of the spectrum) that the highly vocal do.

[Karaboudjan]

6 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Yeah, but it's not really a level playing field.  NCL's 100% vaccinated, while perhaps a strong marketing draw, may cause too many unknowns in FLA right now.  We've seen reports (today) that NCL's first AK cruise has sold out (albeit, at some level of reduced capacity).  We really won't know how this all plays out for months.  I personally don't understand why people are booking cruises on ships that will require them to wear masks and separate, but to each his/her own....  Even if I wasn't inclined to vaccinate, I would likely change my mind if it meant having a nicer vacation.  I obviously don't share the extreme views (on either end of the spectrum) that the highly vocal do.

I agree.  100% vaccinated may be a great draw, but cancelling cruises, swapping ships and the like are certainly not.  I think things would be  different if you could book a 100% vaccinated cruise with near-100% confidence that it would said as planned.

 

So, if 95% is what it takes to get some cruises up and running and generally build some confidence in NCL then maybe that's the best thing.

[dexddd]

23 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Sky sailings were moved to the Gem last week, so the Sky cancellations in September are no surprise. The Joy crew was moved to Encore (Alaska), so she won't have vaccinated crew in a few weeks. Joy is currently in San Juan where the crew is getting J&J. Gem will be there in July to vaccinate her crew in preparation for August sailings.

Thanks for the info.  If Joy getting shot now, why delay until November?  There appears to be a plan with these delays.  Maybe the demand just isn't there and it is a slow ramp up.

[JamieLogical]

17 minutes ago, dexddd said:

Thanks for the info.  If Joy getting shot now, why delay until November?  There appears to be a plan with these delays.  Maybe the demand just isn't there and it is a slow ramp up.

 

The crew currently being vaccinated on the Joy will be moving to the Encore for the Alaska sailings.

[BermudaBound2014]

7 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Yeah, but it's not really a level playing field.  NCL's 100% vaccinated, while perhaps a strong marketing draw, may cause too many unknowns in FLA right now.  

I agree. Florida confuses this topic. If it’s 100% vaccination the public wants, ncl should absolutely blow away all competition In Alaska (especially considering that isn’t a huge kid destination.)  

 

I suspect ncl may try to hold onto 100% vaccination rate until the end of October. I would be surprised if the policy continues after that, but as you said  time will tell. 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

52 minutes ago, dexddd said:

Thanks for the info.  If Joy getting shot now, why delay until November?  There appears to be a plan with these delays.  Maybe the demand just isn't there and it is a slow ramp up.

The current crew on joy is being vaccinated right now in San Juan, but they are then being moved to staff the encore for Alaska sailings. That leaves joy without a crew. 
 

I fear you are right about demand being low. The general public is going to take awhile before they return to cruising. To me, this will be the greatest challenge faced by the industry. 
 

The next 6 months are going to be very interesting.

[deliver42]

All cruise lines in Alaska are 100% vaccinated. I've been looing at cruises for late 2022 or early 2003, and the only line close to NCL's pricing is Celebrity, and that includes tips . Princess, HAL, Carnival, and Royal are all lower with similar perks as NCL.

[GA Dave]

9 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Are the other lines selling out faster than NCL?

I can tell you that, per passengers posting on the RCCL board here on CC and the other large social media site, all of the July sailings for Royal's Freedom of the Seas are now showing as sold out.  People were trying to add friends and family to their sailings but could not get them to come up on the website.  When they called Royal, they were told they are sold out to their capacity for those cruises.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, deliver42 said:

All cruise lines in Alaska are 100% vaccinated. I've been looing at cruises for late 2022 or early 2003, and the only line close to NCL's pricing is Celebrity, and that includes tips . Princess, HAL, Carnival, and Royal are all lower with similar perks as NCL.

 

Thank you. I did not realize that all Alaska sailings were 100% vaccinated. I do support this requirement at initial start-up, but feel it is far too limiting to continue long term. The lines are going to need to fill ships to maximize profit. That is much more difficult to do if they remove 40% of their US based customer base.

[MichiganBound]

11 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 IMO; It's a niche market, and likely a temporary one at best.

We'll have to agree to disagree on 100% vaccinated cruises not being a niche market.  Regarding it being temporary...well that's just common sense.  No-one is arguing that the policy to have 100% vaccinated cruises is going to be permanent.  Not sure why you even raised that point.  Whether it lasts two months, six months, two years, or six years is mostly dependent the evolution of the virus, its variants, and how they interact with the vaccinated/unvaccinated public.  There is an element of political influence on this as well which some cruise lines may cave to.  They will have to live with the consequences of that if some of them do change away from 100% vaccinated cruises.