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Henri - Atlantic - Aug 17


PelicanBill
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Wow, The storm path has just changed to be much closer to the US coast. It's going to be very stormy this weekend along Long Island, then CT, RI, MA, ME into next week.

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1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

Is this likely to impact the first cruise to Bermuda this Sunday? The Crystal Symphony is set to sail from Boston to Bermuda.

Oh boy. Looking at the update path and timing I would say we have a misfire on this first sailing! If this plays out as shown, it feels like first safe day to sail would be Tuesday or Wednesday. That's my guess for the moment.  In a similar situation, I was on Breakway sailing from NYC and a hurricane farther out caused us to sit in NYC an extra day. But that one was speeding away faster. 

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Well Henri has become troublesome.  Hurricane warnings for some areas for the first time in a decade (Irene).  Will impact the first sailing from Boston.  Lots of water on top of Fred, so a lot of flooding expected in the northeast. The pink is hurricane watches. Expecting category 1 with 85mph sustained winds at the center. If this track holds Providence and Worcester get the worst winds.  But don't bet on it - we have 2 days for this track to change.

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Here's the present estimated arrival or tropical storm force winds. Outer edges are low probability (5%ish).  For Crystal Symphony, I am concerned about the departure of these winds. Looks like most of Sunday the harbor would be closed and the airport would likely not be landing flights. This feels like a typical one day delay of departure and hopeful that people flying in will still be able to get there.

 

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For those watching the Crystal Symphony, now moored in Boston Harbor, below is the rule set for US ports during gale force winds. I would think we'll see condition whiskey any time now.  I'll be watching these for the next few days:

Massport.com for port and airport status and Port of Boston twitter

Marinetraffic.com (for ship patterns that indicate port is closing)

crystalcruises.com for announcements

 

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29 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

This definitely looks like bad news for the first cruise out of Boston this weekend! I feel so badly for the people who were anxiously awaiting the cruise restart.

Me too. An awful way to restart cruising for Boston!

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48 minutes ago, PaulMCO said:

Anywhere in the cone spells trouble.  And the "reliable" models look like they are converging.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/08L_tracks_latest.png

The track labeled 'COT2 goes over my house - Time to stow anything loose outside

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Posted (edited)

Leaning more west on the forecast now, and slowing. Central Long Island, CT, Western MA, Southern VT and NH, just like Irene did.  I remember Irene closed the Appalachian trail for months from damage.

 

Crystal cruises posted an advisory that Symphony is delayed until at least Monday evening.

 

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I always like to point out when the media does overly sensational reporting on hurricanes.

ABC News this morning painted the entire states of NY and PA bright red.

There's not going to be any impact out here in western NY and very eastern PA will get rain.

Even Boston - now not getting rain???? This is how fast these forecasts change!

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7 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Leaning more west on the forecast now, and slowing. Central Long Island, CT, Western MA, Southern VT and NH, just like Irene did.  I remember Irene closed the Appalachian trail for months from damage.

 

Crystal cruises posted an advisory that Symphony is delayed until at least Monday evening.

 

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Why such a sharp right hand turn of the storm?  Are the Adirondacks expected to influence the path of Henri that much?  

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8 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

I wonder if it's too late for Crystal to change their minds and sail out tomorrow after all. The latest forecasts now make it seem like Monday will actually be worse than Sunday in Boston.

In fact they did and notified passengers to embark as planned on Sunday!

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1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Why such a sharp right hand turn of the storm?  Are the Adirondacks expected to influence the path of Henri that much?  

It's the Jet Stream - it runs smack into it and gets picked up!

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Henri is a bit east of yesterday's forecast so eastern Long Island is landfall, and CT and RI get it, but so does NY's Hudson valley all the way to Albany, then lower VT and NH as it gets picked up by the winds and turns east. Here's the storm surge expected. There is a lot of low lying land in along these coasts. I wonder if they will be seeing surge in Boston Harbor.

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Flash flood risk for next 3 days.  Weather channel was noting the upper level low already contains a lot of moisture. With Henri sliding into it the two combine to release a ton of water.

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The water seems to favor the left side of the storm, while the winds are marching on a more northeasterly track.  Right up the coast, including Boston. I am surprised the Port of Boston is still open.

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