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September discussions for disturbances


PelicanBill
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Getting us started here for the peak of the season.  September 10 is the midpoint.

We're having some cruises interrupted. New Orleans was supposed to have a sailing this weekend... not gonna happen with power out and and roads closed.

 

 

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1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

Busy ocean.  Larry is named and I will create a new thread soon.  The caribbean disturbance is 30% chance.  Kate is no threat.  Ida still a depression!

 

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So far the weather looks pretty nice for my Sept 4-9 cruise!!  Thx for the update Pelican Bill!

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2 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Yay! Where do you leave from and visit?

We leave Sept 4 from Port Canaveral on Carnival Magic and visiting Nassau, Bimini and Half Moon Cay!  So excited!! Just received our negative results from our antigen tests at CVS.  Good to go!!

Edited by ninjacat123
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News from Entergy, electric provider in New Orleans:

 

Despite the significant logistical challenges and accessibility issues in some of the hardest-hit areas, our team has been able to assess about 65% of the impacted infrastructure and has identified 235 broken poles, 98 damaged transformers, and 156 downed spans of wire statewide. Assessments will continue over the next few days but that may be extended for the more extensively damaged areas in the state.

 

You can see the service map here:

https://www.etrviewoutage.com/map?state=NOLA&_ga=2.111313677.866555672.1630508773-1864659665.1630508773 

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The yellow area is over land and down to 20% chance now. I bet nothing will happen because of the land interference.  Remnants of Ida causing havoc in the Philly to Boston corridor.  Leo's getting larger... I mean Larry's looking louder. (Bonus points if you know my movie reference.)

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OK this is a little troubling.  30% chance, but if it is able to develop, as we know the gulf waters are very warm and full of fuel. If atmospheric conditions are also favorable for development, I don't like the direction this is taking. Going to go see if experts are talking about this yet.

 

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Track models don't have enough data to make sense of this - which is Invest 91L.

Intensity models suggest gradual development into a tropical storm in 3 days, continuing to strengthen through the 5 day limit of the model.  But given the issue with the track models, I don't think there is really enough to go on at all yet.

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A little clarity on the gulf disturbance. Conditions are unfavorable the next 2-3 days, then more favorable as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and emerges over the Atlantic. So Atlantic coastal areas need to pay attention.  I don't expect any cruise disruptions from this.

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As the conditions suggested, the disturbance is now at 30% chance over 2 days and 40% chance over 5 days. Path models are crazy, however, and intensity models show potential achievement of tropical storm but just barely.

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Well goodness. I looked away for just a minute....

The distrubance crossing Florida made it to Tropical Storm Mindy and dropped to depression already. Causing some havoc there and lower Georgia.  Could strengthen again over Atlantic gulf stream waters.

The Africa wave is up to 50% and we have a new lower Caribbean disturbance at 30%.

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Thx for the updates!!  We just came back from our cruise out of Port Canaveral and the weather was great! Just some rain at the end of Tuesday  (Nassau) and end of Wednesday (Bimini) but overall, a great cruise!

Edited by ninjacat123
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41 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

Thx for the updates!!  We just came back from our cruise out of Port Canaveral and the weather was great! Just some rain at the end of Tuesday  (Nassau) and end of Wednesday (Bimini) but overall, a great cruise!

Glad to hear it!  Mindy was a close call 🙂 

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What has happened to the strong surf conditions that were expected along the East Coast due to Larry?  The Fort Lauderdale Beach Web Cam, for the last two days, has shown a very calm Atlantic with Green Flags flying from the Lifeguard Stations.  

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17 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

What has happened to the strong surf conditions that were expected along the East Coast due to Larry?  The Fort Lauderdale Beach Web Cam, for the last two days, has shown a very calm Atlantic with Green Flags flying from the Lifeguard Stations.  

Florida is too far south. I think the media overblew the idea as it was, but it would have been mostly the northeast coasts and maybe some down the NJ and VA areas.  Really, only Bermuda was going to get really rough surf.

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This is Invest 94L.  Likely headed to Texas. Even though a 70% chance to become a tropical storm, it will be weak it seems.  93L off Africa has a 50% chance, heading due west, so should not interfere with the Breakaway transatlantic to NYC underway.

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