More relief in Carnival House

[exlondoner]

It appears the US has decided that its travel ban will end on November 8th.

[Host Hattie]

Details as reported by the BBC here - 

 

Covid: US to lift travel ban for fully jabbed on 8 November

 

[IB2]

Nevertheless I'd be a bit worried about their finances, based on their recent announcements.  The latest financial statement suggests they have enough money to last just twelve months, and they're now in the process of borrowing $2 bn (and having to pay a 6% coupon in order to attract institutional takers) to be used for covering various running costs including interest payments on other debt - which doesn't sound encouraging.  Meanwhile they are continuing to buy back their own shares, which given the above is a strange use of funds and suggests that they otherwise fear a collapse in the price.  

 

The company's financial health clearly depends critically on a return to 'normal' as far as cruising is concerned, for the 2022 season.  Recent announcements on sales sound more encouraging - but there is clearly a huge financial overhang from more than a year with no income.  The share price has been sliding over the past three months (not lifted by the US announcement above, at all), and investors - which includes many passengers, as we know - should keep a close eye on the continuing stream of financial announcements.

Edited October 23, 2021 by IB2

[Windsurfboy]

I  mentally wrote off my 100 shares in carnival when they hit the floor last year.  for the next decade just expect OBC not significant dividends,  and then a little  money back when we cash them in when we stop cruising.  Anything is a bonus.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Windsurfboy

[majortom10]

You would think to generate some sort of income and future bookings they would have not dragged their feet so much in releasing their 2023 Summer programme. For this reason I had planned to book 2 cruises in PG and not a small amount but will now be looking elsewhere away from Carnival.

[ExArkie]

4 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

I  mentally wrote off my 100 shares in carnival when they hit the floor last year.  for the next decade just expect OBC not significant dividends,  and then a little  money back when we cash them in when we stop cruising.  Anything is a bonus.

We have already received much more in shareholder OBC than we paid for our shares many years ago. Our goal in purchasing it was strictly for OBC and not for growth or dividends. We plan to hang on to it until (a) we get too old to do transatlantic, which is mostly what we do on Cunard, (b) they discontinue shareholder OBC, or (c) “someone” screws up the Cunard experience to where we no longer enjoy it. I’m hoping that (a) is the one that comes to pass.

[IB2]

7 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

I  mentally wrote off my 100 shares in carnival when they hit the floor last year.  for the next decade just expect OBC not significant dividends,  and then a little  money back when we cash them in when we stop cruising.  Anything is a bonus.

It is fair enough to see them that way.

 

Nevertheless a company that is borrowing money at 6% and using it to buy back its own shares on an almost daily basis is not in a good place.

[techteach]

From the 2020 Annual Report. I hope the snip works. If it doesn‘t is says that at the end of the year they had 9.5 billion in cash and believed it would be enough to carry through 2021. Makes me wonder about 2022.

[IB2]

8 minutes ago, techteach said:

From the 2020 Annual Report. I hope the snip works. If it doesn‘t is says that at the end of the year they had 9.5 billion in cash and believed it would be enough to carry through 2021. Makes me wonder about 2022.

It says they had $9.5 bn left after having borrowed $19bn!  And that was 2020.  They’re now having to offer 6% just to be able to borrow a further $2bn.  I hope they turn it round - but the company’s financial health hangs on the 2022 cruising season being “normal”, rather than a repeat of 2021.

 

Cruise companies have gone out of their way to avoid paying tax and to evade regulation, by exploiting their trans-national status and by registering their ships in obscure parts of the world.  No government is going to bail them out in a hurry.

Edited October 23, 2021 by IB2

[ace2542]

I hate to be negative but you all do know the U.S could change it mind and reimpose the travel ban against the UK in particular with our high case numbers which would be real bad for Cunard's finances they can't afford to lose the Christmas 2021 26 night trip 2 years in row nor the upcoming crossings towards easter.

Edited October 23, 2021 by ace2542

[Windsurfboy]

My key reading of this is not to spend more than £30k on a Cunard cruise so section 75 applies. 

[techteach]

I found the comment about not having the capacity for new cruisers due to the large number of dedicated Cunarders interesting. The forums have speculations regarding policy changes and the possibility that they were made to attract new and perhaps younger clients.