Cruise prices

[twotravellersLondon]

21 hours ago, tring said:

 

I looked at the Iceland cruise yesterday, this morning and just now.  There is currently one inside cabin available, so they have reached a level when the odd cabin will be cancelled and re appear, which always happens, but the cheaper saver fare for inside cabins is no longer available - they do get rid of that when there are very few cabins left, which is not surprising.  In fact the cheapest saver fare is for Superior Outsides - not even standard outsides.

 

Some interesting info. regards access to accounts which we have not gained access to, thinks for that.  Sorry, yes I did know Fred Snr. had retained the chair position but had forgot.  The company seems to have been signed over to Annette though, if I understood it correctly.  I put a number of links to info. on the Olsen family on #22 of another thread, some months ago:-   https://boards.cruisecritic.co.uk/topic/2797299-designed-the-olsen-way/  The rest of that thread could be of interest to you as well - it can be found further down this page.

 

I never believe rumours, but having been told something by a Fred Captain, whilst sat next to him at the dinner table, I do not doubt what I was told.  The exact words (in quotes) were that the board thought the cruise line, " did not make enough money", so basically did not think it a good business venture, but that they were persuaded that it was "Good PR".  I am sure Bonheur must have done a lot financially over covid, but persumably they hope it can be turned around in the future, though things are still looking dicey for cruising at present and for a while ahead IMO.  I am sure they will want to assure everyone that their support will be never ending - no business would say anything else publicly, but the future cannot be foretold entirely.  I am also concious that the more long term customers of Fred we had spoken with when we started cruising (after 2006), had always said that Fred Snr. had a soft spot for the cruise line and used to sail on the ships regularly in the past, which we are thinking may be an extra reason for the company to have kept the cruise line going so far.  Interesting that the purchase of the HAL ships is to be paid for in the last two years as well, though a whole load of cash has obviously been spent on the ships so far of course. 

 

You did mention earlier in this thread how Fred Jnr. had stated how well the cruise line was performing financially pre-covid, albeit perhaps putting his foot in it at the same time!  The pricing structures with the high initial prices and various offers have remained the same throughout.  One difference this year is that Fred has offered saver fares on the balcony cabins, whereas previously they were only offered on the cheaper cabins.  The long term customers were kept happy as they were often given upgrades, though that had changed to being offered reduced price upgrades more often by the time we reached Gold level (a few years back) and that in itself did annoy a good number of customers.  I had asked an onboard rep how Fred decided who was given upgrades about five years ago and was told, "how soon you booked, how much you had paid and whether you are Gold".  We are now Platinum, but not had or heard of anyone having an upgrade offer this year, though we had not booked any cruises that far ahead and had not rang to ask what we would be charged for an upgrade as not that bothered.  I doubt the staff have had time to ring round either.  I have seen many comments on another site by people who had booked balconies on the newer ships and indeed would not consider anything else, so I am sure some bookings are being made up front, though I would not know if they are smokers.... 

 

What matters of course is how much profit Fred can make, rather than how many cabins are occupied and if profits were doing well pre-covid, perhaps Fred has been doing better than you think at that time.  As I said, I do not like his pricing methods, but it may just be working for him.  If there are more singles on the ship, that will cause a reduction of some occupancy and some cruises do book up fairly easily.  Once Aurora and Arcadia go there will be little competition for people wanting the smaller ships and less mundane itineraries, sailing from the UK, though it does depend how many people migrate to the CMV re incarnation - and more to the point go back to repeat that experience (not something we are keen to do at this stage).  I can see Saga may have an appeal to some, but there is no cheaper option and basically you are paying for all those extras, even if like us you have no interest in them.  I know there is a reduction if you do not take their insurance, but the -£75 is neither here nor there on those prices.  I do not mean to totally knock Saga and know of people who like that overall package and realise some will go that way, if they continue to trade as they are now.  At present we would happily go on fly holidays and fly cruises - in fact we prefer that to many sea days in poor weather conditions, unless going north of course.

 

You were asking earlier about cruise sales on the ships.  There is a standard extra 5% discount on Freedom Fares and other offers are often advertised on certain cruises - there were some double on board discounts (so -10%) offered on certain cruises when we have been on the ships recently,  but I cannot remember anything else, but we had no interest in booking anything at the time anyway so took little notice.  The Oceans cocktail parties, (which are basically sales drives of course), were not taking place because of covid, so we did not sit through the normal "sales presentation".  I would suggest, if previous sales models are being retained, that it may be worth booking a cruise in a non balcony cabin fairly early at Freedom Fare and then ringing nearer to cruise date to see if they will give a reduced price upgrade, as we have been known to do.  No guarantee that will still work though, so very much a gamble.  If booked on a saver fare the upgrade cost will be substantial - they have a price which they want to obtain, then calculate what you need to pay by subtracting what you have paid for your existing cabin, (or that was how it had been working over the last few years).

 

Happy cruising, no matter who you cruise with,

 

Barbara

 

 

 

 

Many thanks for taking the time and trouble to offer such a detailed insight... It's much appreciated.

 

I looked at an inside on Marina deck earlier this afternoon and was offered nine alternatives. So it may be that more cabins have been released since you last checked.

 

Many thanks also for pointing out the links about the Olsen family. As you probably imagine, The info on Wiki about Anette (only one 'n') even if it was correct in the first place has been out of date for years. It's the same with some of the details about Fred Sen in Fortune mag. The text is protected now but I read the article about 6 or 7 years ago. 

 

You possibly know that, despite what many people seem to imagine... Bonheur isn't owned by Anette Olsen. It's a public company listed on the Norwegian stock-exchange at over 13 billion. The Olsen family, as a whole, have a controlling interest of 51.9% but the rest of the shares are mostly in the hands of 16 major institutional shareholders. These include familiar names such as; the Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV, State Street Bank and Trust Company. Citibank, N.A., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London. So Bonheur is probably contributing to many folks' pensions... perhaps even some of those using their retirement income to cruse on "Fred"!

 

What many of us rather familiarly call "Fred" is quite a business operation... a company for each vessel, another for Ipswich HQ and another, which includes Fred Jun. and Anette as directors, for the cruise line as a whole. Fred Olsen Cruise Lines and a number of other businesses are owned by the private company, Fred Olsen Ltd... of which Anette is the Chairman. She's also the Chairman of the boards of, Timex Corporation, Fred Olsen Renewables AS and NHST Media Group AS. Anette also owns Fred Olsen & Co which is responsible for the management of the Oslo Stock Exchange-listed company Bonheur ASA. The whole thing is a very complex international business

 

About 10 years ago, it was the case that Bonheur's cruise sector just wasn't making "money" but a lot of water's gone under the bridges since then. Fred Jun. used his business acumen, did something about the situation and turned things around. From the middle of the last decade the cruise sector was certainly in profit. 

 

The details of the purchasing agreement between Fred and Holland America are pretty public if you know where to look. Personally, I think that Fred showed immense business expertise to cut a "wicked deal" with Holland America who would have had very little alternative option except to sell the ships for scrap value at a time that every ship-breaker in the world had more vessels than they knew what to do with. Fred recognised a buyer's market, took advantage of the opportunity and was supported by his board.

 

Having been using with Fred since the 1990s... long before the Loyalty Club was thought of... and, like you, being long time Platinum Members... we've also heard many, many stories... often contradictory... over breakfasts, lunches and the odd cup of tea.  As far as "upgrades" are concerned... it's not something that we actively look for except as part of the original offer and we've always been able to benefit from these in the past 10 years or so.

 

Fred's profits have been up and down over the last 10 years. He turned a corner in 2013, did very well in 2016 but between then and 2019 his occupancy rates fell and so did his net profit. We think that in 2019 the cruise business contributed about 10% of the net result of Bonheur as a whole.

 

Occasionally we've had a surprise... we arrived at Southampton one day to be told we'd been upgraded because our original cabin had been flooded out by some accident in the cabin above... so a suite on Highland deck was very nice... we often spoke on the balcony rail to the very pleasant chap in the suite next door... only at the end of the cruise did we cotton that he was Fred Jun... not at all like his photo in the brochure.

 

Booking and then negotiating "deals" later is just not our scene... life's too short. Like the vast majority of people we meet on board ships, we don't identify as inveterate  "cruisers"... we're people who happen to cruise... for a reason... to enjoy life... we find that makes travelling far more interesting, exciting and exhilarating. Cruising is the "soft" option but's no worse for that... we did a couple of real expedition cruises just before covid... in the high Arctic well north of Svalbard... no balconies but we were on the Bridge or the foredeck most of the time... and then in zodiacs through the heavy pack-ice where our ship couldn't go. Evacuated twice due to Polar Bears... one really big chap on his hind legs at one point.... scary! It certainly made the adrenaline flow in a way that white-glove afternoon tea just can't compete with. And clambering on to an ice flow at well above 80˚ N is, for us, far more fun than dozing in a deck chair... even for folks who've reached the three-score year and ten milestone! 

 

We're actively pursuing the possibility of being able to cruise with Fred in a style that suits us. Like many others, we're quite willing to pay a reasonable price for a balcony on Fred (and have done so several times a year up to when covid halted operations) but it's got to be at a competitive price. We never buy Fred's drinks package... we just don't drink enough to cover the cost and, if we do have a glass of wine, we want something at least as good as we can buy at a reasonable price in our local gastro pub. The fact that SAGA will provide a choice of better reds, whites and rose wines suits us fine. We both have culinary training and experience... so we eat very well at home... and choose restaurant outings with care. Given the price that we pay on Fred we expect no less.

 

Our experience on SAGA is that all food is of a much superior standard than we find on Fred. Perhaps if Fred was just catering for balconies and upwards, he might also be able to provide the same quality. The same is true about entertainment and many other aspects as well. For us, these things aren't "extras" they are essential to the enjoyment of a cruise. 

 

Fred's asking price for balconies at the moment is just uncompetitive. And... Why live a little when at the same price or lower we can "live a lot" on another cruise line?

 

We hope that as things settle a bit, that Fred will look very carefully at his pricing strategies and we can feel comfortable about booking another cruise or two or three.

[Coravel]

I must admit to learning a great deal from this thread so thanks for taking the time to type it all out.  We've had some good upgrades over the years, the best being on an "around Italy"  cruise on the Balmoral to celebrate our 40th wedding anniversary.  We paid for a deck 9 balcony cabin and were given a deck 10 suite which was stunning.  These days I'm more than happy to go for an inside cabin, because  as Barbara correctly said, most of us don't spend a great deal of time in it.  We enjoy making friends with other passengers and my wife tends to keep in touch with them for a considerable period of time after we return.  It's rare that we don't bump into someone we have already cruised with previously.  Almost all our cruising has been with Fred so they must be doing something right!  

[tring]

On 2/3/2022 at 5:31 PM, twotravellersLondon said:

 

Many thanks for taking the time and trouble to offer such a detailed insight... It's much appreciated.

 

I looked at an inside on Marina deck earlier this afternoon and was offered nine alternatives. So it may be that more cabins have been released since you last checked.

 

Many thanks also for pointing out the links about the Olsen family. As you probably imagine, The info on Wiki about Anette (only one 'n') even if it was correct in the first place has been out of date for years. It's the same with some of the details about Fred Sen in Fortune mag. The text is protected now but I read the article about 6 or 7 years ago. 

 

You possibly know that, despite what many people seem to imagine... Bonheur isn't owned by Anette Olsen. It's a public company listed on the Norwegian stock-exchange at over 13 billion. The Olsen family, as a whole, have a controlling interest of 51.9% but the rest of the shares are mostly in the hands of 16 major institutional shareholders. These include familiar names such as; the Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV, State Street Bank and Trust Company. Citibank, N.A., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London. So Bonheur is probably contributing to many folks' pensions... perhaps even some of those using their retirement income to cruse on "Fred"!

 

What many of us rather familiarly call "Fred" is quite a business operation... a company for each vessel, another for Ipswich HQ and another, which includes Fred Jun. and Anette as directors, for the cruise line as a whole. Fred Olsen Cruise Lines and a number of other businesses are owned by the private company, Fred Olsen Ltd... of which Anette is the Chairman. She's also the Chairman of the boards of, Timex Corporation, Fred Olsen Renewables AS and NHST Media Group AS. Anette also owns Fred Olsen & Co which is responsible for the management of the Oslo Stock Exchange-listed company Bonheur ASA. The whole thing is a very complex international business

 

About 10 years ago, it was the case that Bonheur's cruise sector just wasn't making "money" but a lot of water's gone under the bridges since then. Fred Jun. used his business acumen, did something about the situation and turned things around. From the middle of the last decade the cruise sector was certainly in profit. 

 

The details of the purchasing agreement between Fred and Holland America are pretty public if you know where to look. Personally, I think that Fred showed immense business expertise to cut a "wicked deal" with Holland America who would have had very little alternative option except to sell the ships for scrap value at a time that every ship-breaker in the world had more vessels than they knew what to do with. Fred recognised a buyer's market, took advantage of the opportunity and was supported by his board.

 

Having been using with Fred since the 1990s... long before the Loyalty Club was thought of... and, like you, being long time Platinum Members... we've also heard many, many stories... often contradictory... over breakfasts, lunches and the odd cup of tea.  As far as "upgrades" are concerned... it's not something that we actively look for except as part of the original offer and we've always been able to benefit from these in the past 10 years or so.

 

Fred's profits have been up and down over the last 10 years. He turned a corner in 2013, did very well in 2016 but between then and 2019 his occupancy rates fell and so did his net profit. We think that in 2019 the cruise business contributed about 10% of the net result of Bonheur as a whole.

 

Occasionally we've had a surprise... we arrived at Southampton one day to be told we'd been upgraded because our original cabin had been flooded out by some accident in the cabin above... so a suite on Highland deck was very nice... we often spoke on the balcony rail to the very pleasant chap in the suite next door... only at the end of the cruise did we cotton that he was Fred Jun... not at all like his photo in the brochure.

 

Booking and then negotiating "deals" later is just not our scene... life's too short. Like the vast majority of people we meet on board ships, we don't identify as inveterate  "cruisers"... we're people who happen to cruise... for a reason... to enjoy life... we find that makes travelling far more interesting, exciting and exhilarating. Cruising is the "soft" option but's no worse for that... we did a couple of real expedition cruises just before covid... in the high Arctic well north of Svalbard... no balconies but we were on the Bridge or the foredeck most of the time... and then in zodiacs through the heavy pack-ice where our ship couldn't go. Evacuated twice due to Polar Bears... one really big chap on his hind legs at one point.... scary! It certainly made the adrenaline flow in a way that white-glove afternoon tea just can't compete with. And clambering on to an ice flow at well above 80˚ N is, for us, far more fun than dozing in a deck chair... even for folks who've reached the three-score year and ten milestone! 

 

We're actively pursuing the possibility of being able to cruise with Fred in a style that suits us. Like many others, we're quite willing to pay a reasonable price for a balcony on Fred (and have done so several times a year up to when covid halted operations) but it's got to be at a competitive price. We never buy Fred's drinks package... we just don't drink enough to cover the cost and, if we do have a glass of wine, we want something at least as good as we can buy at a reasonable price in our local gastro pub. The fact that SAGA will provide a choice of better reds, whites and rose wines suits us fine. We both have culinary training and experience... so we eat very well at home... and choose restaurant outings with care. Given the price that we pay on Fred we expect no less.

 

Our experience on SAGA is that all food is of a much superior standard than we find on Fred. Perhaps if Fred was just catering for balconies and upwards, he might also be able to provide the same quality. The same is true about entertainment and many other aspects as well. For us, these things aren't "extras" they are essential to the enjoyment of a cruise. 

 

Fred's asking price for balconies at the moment is just uncompetitive. And... Why live a little when at the same price or lower we can "live a lot" on another cruise line?

 

We hope that as things settle a bit, that Fred will look very carefully at his pricing strategies and we can feel comfortable about booking another cruise or two or three.

 

Yes, I had mentioned my uncertainty of Wikki in my post, but often a good pointer and easy links to find.  I was pointing out that whilst Fred may seem a small cruise line, it is still part of an extremely substantial organisation, as you mentioned.  I was aware they figured on the  Norwegian stock-exchange, but we are not business people who have easy access/knowledge of accounts and the business world.  DH had used various means to access company info. back in his professional days, from the legal side of his enforcement roles - but we had not bothered to go into the chargeable areas purely for inquisitiveness, so thanks for the information.

 

We have never booked anything we would not be happy to go with and most of the time we have done just that, though are tempted at times.  Expedition cruises were something we were seriously considering before covid and we had attended presentations from two or three cruise lines offering them at a cruise event.  We did not have much interest in the companies offering such cruises as a "luxury" cruise for the sake of it, but found Hurtigruten of great interest as they seemed to be more into the academic side of things, which can be very interesting.  Can I ask which company your expedition cruises were with and if you would recommend them?  

 

It is some years since we last boarded a zodiac (to transfer from Minerva to St Kilda), when Swan Hellenic was operating under the All Leisure umbrella.  All we got the attention of was an irate skua which  presumably had a nest in the direction we were walking (uphill from the main paths).  It circled us very noisily, so we took a calm, but speedy as possible, retreat.  I had also had a near miss with an arctic tern in Longyearbyen when I was walking quite quickly along the road which leads out towards the husky dog centre - I was on my own as DH had stopped to take photos and he just casually remarked afterwards that he had made a very big mistake by not getting a shot of my plight!!  Luckily I was wearing a coat with a hood so putting that up and standing still calmed the poor bird down somewhat.  Birds are enough to scare me, but it would not put me off an expedition cruise whilst we are still fairly active.  We have enjoyed our evenings on cruises in northerly locations just sitting at the front of the observatory whilst other passengers have disappeared into a show lounge or similar.  We at times missed dinner, having a quick snack in the self service, or on room service, so we did not miss those long daylight sailing hours, especially if in interesting locations.  We had stayed outside on many occasions as well, but not all day.  Fred has always been strong on going north of course. 

 

Barbara

    

Edited February 4, 2022 by tring

[richard_london]

Just looking back through my emails, Fred. are pushing out at least two emails a week plus their "latest from the Bridge" mailings.  There are an awful lot of deals at the moment.  Does anyone know if they are doing okay?  I get marketing emails from other cruise companies but none seem to be as heavily into the email offers as Fred. at the moment.  Are they struggling with filling the newer ships given their newer ships carry close to 1400 passengers and the Black Watch and Boudicca carried 900.  That's 55% more people on board, and given they seem in no rush to put the Braemar back into service a bit worried the signs aren't the best.  Hopefully just reading too much into things, but with the loss of so many ships during the pandemic the choices are already depleted enough.

[tring]

1 hour ago, richard_london said:

Just looking back through my emails, Fred. are pushing out at least two emails a week plus their "latest from the Bridge" mailings.  There are an awful lot of deals at the moment.  Does anyone know if they are doing okay?  I get marketing emails from other cruise companies but none seem to be as heavily into the email offers as Fred. at the moment.  Are they struggling with filling the newer ships given their newer ships carry close to 1400 passengers and the Black Watch and Boudicca carried 900.  That's 55% more people on board, and given they seem in no rush to put the Braemar back into service a bit worried the signs aren't the best.  Hopefully just reading too much into things, but with the loss of so many ships during the pandemic the choices are already depleted enough.

 

They are allowed up to 70% capacity with covid restrictions in place and the number booked seems to vary by cruise.  You can see that with prices before a cruise - some still being sold with low prices others off sale a while before.  Boudicca and Black Watch took about 700 pax.  You may have picked up numbers if there are more than 2 per cabin, which was not usual and there are always a good number of singles as well, some in double cabins. 

 

I know what you mean about loss of ships, but I have seen a poster on the P&O boards (who clearly knows internal details) who has said fairly recently that it is still about keeping as much cash in the bank as they can, rather than turning a profit overall as yet.  We just have to hope companies come through this, but it is only going to get worse with events over this last couple of weeks.  I think all companies are struggling and I have seen some very good offers from all of them.  Fingers crossed they will get through this.

 

[twotravellersLondon]

15 hours ago, richard_london said:

Just looking back through my emails, Fred. are pushing out at least two emails a week plus their "latest from the Bridge" mailings.  There are an awful lot of deals at the moment.  Does anyone know if they are doing okay?  I get marketing emails from other cruise companies but none seem to be as heavily into the email offers as Fred. at the moment.  Are they struggling with filling the newer ships given their newer ships carry close to 1400 passengers and the Black Watch and Boudicca carried 900.  That's 55% more people on board, and given they seem in no rush to put the Braemar back into service a bit worried the signs aren't the best.  Hopefully just reading too much into things, but with the loss of so many ships during the pandemic the choices are already depleted enough.

 

We've asked ourselves the same question.

 

"Fred's" annual accounts for 2021 won't be available for a little time yet. However, "Fred's" ultimate Norwegian parent company, Bonheur ASA, has filed results for the fourth quarter of 2021 (October, November, December) showing  "Bolette and Borealis operated with an occupancy of 66% capacity". The details are all available free of charge in English on the Bonheur ASA website. However, it's not clear if this is 66% of the total capacity of 2,800 or 66% of the reduced capacity due to covid protocols.

 

In 2019, "Fred" was running four ships at about 72% capacity and the company was making a very small profit. The Bolette and Borealis are more costly to run than the Boudicca and the Black Watch but if "Fred" attracts larger numbers of passengers than he was carrying on the Boudicca and the Black Watch pre-covid that would be more economical, the cost per passenger to the Company would go down and it would make a difference to the profit/loss account.

 

If "Fred"  is currently carrying more passengers on the Bolette and Borealis than he was on the Boudicca and the Black Watch... that sounds good.If "Fred" was currently carrying only 66% of a reduced capacity on the Bolette and Borealis it still would suggest that "Fred"  is currently carrying more passengers on the Bolette and Borealis than "Fred"  was on the Boudicca and the Black Watch.

 

The really big question is whether or not "Fred" can scale up those numbers when the Balmoral and the Braemar come back into service. Before covid, "Fred" was achieving a little over 1,000,000 passenger nights per year over his four ships and he was achieving over £200 million in revenues. However competition was fierce, the number of heads on beds per night had fallen significantly over the previous ten years and after having turned an annual loss into a profit in 2015/2016, falling passenger numbers coincided with falling profits in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

 

What the directors of "Fred" say in their annual reports is that they aim to retain existing customers and attract others. That was already difficult in 2019... "Fred" has one of the greatest range of prices on the same cruise and was already vulnerable to competition from less expensive cruise lines which were attracting his lower fare customers and he was also vulnerable form lines that could offer his higher fare customers a better offering at more economical prices.

 

I'm sure that "Fred" fully understands that and the effort that he put into the cultivation his Loyalty Club and offering suite upgrades in addition to 10% off the fare is very probably part of a wider strategic plan which also involved a major digital marketing initiative aimed at a younger audience. But there are real challenges... these are well set out in the core reports used by all of the cruise lines...

 

The "Cruise Line International Association,  2022 State of the Cruise Industry" is predicting that the global cruise industry will recover by 2023/2024... but one third of cruise passengers are classified as "traditionalists" who tend to be over 60 years old... the demographic that tend to dominate "Fred's" ships and the bad news is that only 73% of those plan to cruise again. The real growth area will be in Generations X, Y and Z... born 1965 onwards.

 

A 2021 CBI study concluded that significant negative implicants on potential cruisers disposable income had affected their ability to cruise. People were tending to favour all-inclusive packages and wanted security when it comes to cancellation fees and refund policies. From the cruise operators’ perspective, ticket prices are anticipated to drop, while on-board revenue is expected to continue growing by cruise-lines providing additional services.

 

So? "Fred" has challenges but so does every cruise line. "Fred" is backed by a multi-billion international parent company. But... it all really depends if "Fred" can come out of covid with some indication that he can turn a profit again or at least break-even and persuade his ultimate parent company that he's worth the investment. Accounts in the next few weeks will give a much better idea.

 

We very much like the Braemar. We would be really interested in cruising on the Braemar again if the price was competitive with other lines on a like for like basis with a comparable cabin and package offering. 

[richard_london]

Thanks for the Bonheur link.  Looking at the Q3 2021 report it says:

 

The remaining cruise ships are planned to be gradually phased into operations through to 2Q 2022.

Due to the new and negative development of Covid-19 in the UK, early autumn 2021, the UK cruise industry is now experiencing discounting ticket prices for the coming winter season. From Spring/Summer 2022, and going forward, FOCL is experiencing substantial demand at normal prices for it’s cruises.

 

But then in the Q4 report it says:

 

Balmoral is planned to commence cruising during 2Q 2022 and Braemar is planned to commence cruising in 2Q 2023.

 

So Braemar returning to service a year later than announced just three months earlier doesn't tally with a "substantial demand" for cruises. 

 

I am keen to try the Braemar, just 2023 seems a long way off and there still seems so much uncertainty in cruising.

 

I did see one thing, it says:

 

FOCL has a seller credit of GBP 22.3 million of 5 years tenor with 3 years of zero amortization and subsequent annual instalments of GBP 7.43 million at a 2.5% fixed interest cost.

 

I don't really understand what that means, but you said FOCL made a small profit in 2019.  £7.43 million is a lot to pay back each year when profits are small.  Have they already had to start making repayments?

[Britboys]

Interesting to see all your posts. I have only cruised once with Fred but had another one booked that was twice changed, itinerary wise, and ultimately cancelled. Fred seems to operate differently to most other lines in a key way - their launch prices are generally ridiculously high, with better offers coming later. Two of their UK competitors (P&O and Ambassador) operate their prices the other way round. Apart from late deals, Fred's recent prices have seemed very high to me - especially so for solo travellers.

The other thing I have found irritating of late with Fred, is the drip, drip release of itineraries. I - and I'm sure many others - like to see what is available across a whole season before deciding what to book. I guess this could be in part due to current circumstances but as far as I am concerned, it's not helpful.

[twotravellersLondon]

16 hours ago, richard_london said:

Thanks for the Bonheur link.  Looking at the Q3 2021 report it says:

 

The remaining cruise ships are planned to be gradually phased into operations through to 2Q 2022.

Due to the new and negative development of Covid-19 in the UK, early autumn 2021, the UK cruise industry is now experiencing discounting ticket prices for the coming winter season. From Spring/Summer 2022, and going forward, FOCL is experiencing substantial demand at normal prices for it’s cruises.

 

But then in the Q4 report it says:

 

Balmoral is planned to commence cruising during 2Q 2022 and Braemar is planned to commence cruising in 2Q 2023.

 

So Braemar returning to service a year later than announced just three months earlier doesn't tally with a "substantial demand" for cruises. 

 

I am keen to try the Braemar, just 2023 seems a long way off and there still seems so much uncertainty in cruising.

 

I did see one thing, it says:

 

FOCL has a seller credit of GBP 22.3 million of 5 years tenor with 3 years of zero amortization and subsequent annual instalments of GBP 7.43 million at a 2.5% fixed interest cost.

 

I don't really understand what that means, but you said FOCL made a small profit in 2019.  £7.43 million is a lot to pay back each year when profits are small.  Have they already had to start making repayments?

 

13 hours ago, Britboys said:

The other thing I have found irritating of late with Fred, is the drip, drip release of itineraries. I - and I'm sure many others - like to see what is available across a whole season before deciding what to book. I guess this could be in part due to current circumstances but as far as I am concerned, it's not helpful.

 

Traditionally over the years "Fred" has made a loss on the cruise business. 

 

"Fred" acquired what's now the "Borealis" and the "Bolette" in mid 2020 and there's no payment due to Holland America until mid 2023. "Fred" will then have two more years to pay off the ships in annual instalments of £7.43 million at a 2.5% fixed interest.

 

That seems to be a lot of money but pre-covid "Fred" had operating revenues of over £200,000,00 and, by comparison with the amount of money that "Fred" has borrowed over the last couple of years from Bonheur ASA, £7.43 million is a relatively small amount.

 

The real question is: now that "Fred" has so much more capacity can he retain his loyalty customers and can he attract more customers than he did pre-covid to make his four ships pay? 

 

The problem is that in the ten years up to 2019 "Fred's" occupancy rates were falling and the industry analysis is that the demographic (Boomers) that make up most of "Fred's" customer base are now less likely to cruise. Others, like ourselves, have been put off by "Fred's" pricing strategy. 

 

These price hikes are nothing to do with covid. Way back in 2018 Fred Jun. was quoted in the trade press as saying he had raised his prices, was achieving the "highest operating profit ever" and that as far as his loyalty members were concerned: “A lot of them are sailing three or four times with us a year, so it might just mean they cut down on the number of cruises or they go from a balcony cabin to an outside.”

 

We're Ocean Loyalty Members. We've cruised with Fred since the 1990s... about 30 cruises. We've carefully compared "Fred" cost per day with other lines doing almost identical itineraries at the same time of the year and for the type of cabin that we want. "Fred" has been the most expensive and on top of that "Fred" has all manner of additional extra charges that other cruise lines include in the basic price. So, for us "Fred's" pricing has resulted in us going from "Fred" to other cruise lines.

 

We also find that "Fred's" prices are up and down and up and down... and are confused with "offers." "Fred" calls that "Dynamic pricing"... we call it off-putting.

[twotravellersLondon]

1 hour ago, twotravellersLondon said:

operating revenues of over £200,000,00

 Should, of course be £200 million!

[Britboys]

1 hour ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

 

Traditionally over the years "Fred" has made a loss on the cruise business. 

 

"Fred" acquired what's now the "Borealis" and the "Bolette" in mid 2020 and there's no payment due to Holland America until mid 2023. "Fred" will then have two more years to pay off the ships in annual instalments of £7.43 million at a 2.5% fixed interest.

 

That seems to be a lot of money but pre-covid "Fred" had operating revenues of over £200,000,00 and, by comparison with the amount of money that "Fred" has borrowed over the last couple of years from Bonheur ASA, £7.43 million is a relatively small amount.

 

The real question is: now that "Fred" has so much more capacity can he retain his loyalty customers and can he attract more customers than he did pre-covid to make his four ships pay? 

 

The problem is that in the ten years up to 2019 "Fred's" occupancy rates were falling and the industry analysis is that the demographic (Boomers) that make up most of "Fred's" customer base are now less likely to cruise. Others, like ourselves, have been put off by "Fred's" pricing strategy. 

 

These price hikes are nothing to do with covid. Way back in 2018 Fred Jun. was quoted in the trade press as saying he had raised his prices, was achieving the "highest operating profit ever" and that as far as his loyalty members were concerned: “A lot of them are sailing three or four times with us a year, so it might just mean they cut down on the number of cruises or they go from a balcony cabin to an outside.”

 

We're Ocean Loyalty Members. We've cruised with Fred since the 1990s... about 30 cruises. We've carefully compared "Fred" cost per day with other lines doing almost identical itineraries at the same time of the year and for the type of cabin that we want. "Fred" has been the most expensive and on top of that "Fred" has all manner of additional extra charges that other cruise lines include in the basic price. So, for us "Fred's" pricing has resulted in us going from "Fred" to other cruise lines.

 

We also find that "Fred's" prices are up and down and up and down... and are confused with "offers." "Fred" calls that "Dynamic pricing"... we call it off-putting.

Fred has a real opportunity of poaching pax from P&O with his two new ships. P&O are putting their emphasis on their two new big mega-ships whilst they try to build a younger, new-to-cruise passenger demographic. I believe they are also cutting costs by restricting the number of ports they use to get good deals at them. Their two smaller ships used to have interesting itineraries but now just seem to do the same things every year. Their 2024 Summer programme is due out now but word has it that even with Aurora & Arcadia, it is "same old, same old". Borealis and Bolette could easily tempt pax away from Aurora and Arcadia but Fred would need to offer more realistic pricing comparison with P&O.

[richard_london]

On 3/9/2022 at 9:04 PM, Britboys said:

Interesting to see all your posts. I have only cruised once with Fred but had another one booked that was twice changed, itinerary wise, and ultimately cancelled. Fred seems to operate differently to most other lines in a key way - their launch prices are generally ridiculously high, with better offers coming later. Two of their UK competitors (P&O and Ambassador) operate their prices the other way round. Apart from late deals, Fred's recent prices have seemed very high to me - especially so for solo travellers.

The other thing I have found irritating of late with Fred, is the drip, drip release of itineraries. I - and I'm sure many others - like to see what is available across a whole season before deciding what to book. I guess this could be in part due to current circumstances but as far as I am concerned, it's not helpful.

I agree entirely on both points.  Solo prices are exorbitant and are a complete no-no for me, which is disappointing as the itineraries are more interesting than P&O.

 

Also, yes, the drip drip release needs to be improved.  They used to send out the big cruise calendar books with all of the itineraries and it was nice to be able to compare different options.  With limited funds for holidays, I usually create a short list of cruises I want to try and then go for the one I like the best, but it's not really possible when they don't publish them all in one go.

[richard_london]

On 3/10/2022 at 10:42 AM, twotravellersLondon said:

Traditionally over the years "Fred" has made a loss on the cruise business. 

 

"Fred" acquired what's now the "Borealis" and the "Bolette" in mid 2020 and there's no payment due to Holland America until mid 2023. "Fred" will then have two more years to pay off the ships in annual instalments of £7.43 million at a 2.5% fixed interest.

 

That seems to be a lot of money but pre-covid "Fred" had operating revenues of over £200,000,00 and, by comparison with the amount of money that "Fred" has borrowed over the last couple of years from Bonheur ASA, £7.43 million is a relatively small amount.

 

The real question is: now that "Fred" has so much more capacity can he retain his loyalty customers and can he attract more customers than he did pre-covid to make his four ships pay? 

Thank you for explaining the payment terms.

 

I fear Fred. are facing an uphill battle on this.  More capacity but at higher prices means even more cabins unfilled, if his past passengers such as ourselves decide they can no longer cruise with them.

 

I know the new ships had a loyal following with HAL but they just aren't for me.  The latest cruise ships are criticised as floating blocks of flats, but the Bolette and Borealis are unfortunately not very pretty.  Their form is quite blocky, the stern is very square (unlike the cascading rear decks on the Braemar and Balmoral) and the bridge front isn't very attractive, and the two funnels don't look good when you compare the funnels on the Braemar, Balmoral and the two retired ships.  The interiors look very dated and seem not to have been updated since built, unlike Fred's previous fleet which had had many refits to keep them looking contemporary inside.

 

Unless you are extremely loyal to Fred. I can't think why you wouldn't spend the money and go with Viking or Saga (I'm not quite old enough for Saga yet), or on a budget go with Ambassador when they are up and running.  Cruising for me is more about the ship than the destinations and Fred's decision to go with these HAL ships just isn't an attractive offering.  I know the Black Watch and Boudicca were old, but they had a loyal following with Fred's cruisers and I'm not sure the new ships will ever gain that affection.

 

I will stick to the Balmoral and Braemar, if I can afford to, but that doesn't seem likely.  Failing that I can give Ambassador a go as they seem to offer more varied itineraries as Fred does.

[Britboys]

1 hour ago, richard_london said:

I agree entirely on both points.  Solo prices are exorbitant and are a complete no-no for me, which is disappointing as the itineraries are more interesting than P&O.

 

Also, yes, the drip drip release needs to be improved.  They used to send out the big cruise calendar books with all of the itineraries and it was nice to be able to compare different options.  With limited funds for holidays, I usually create a short list of cruises I want to try and then go for the one I like the best, but it's not really possible when they don't publish them all in one go.

Fred's late deals for solo pax can be quite good - but not everyone can do late deals and the more unusual itineraries tend to sell out quickly.

[Britboys]

48 minutes ago, richard_london said:

Thank you for explaining the payment terms.

 

I fear Fred. are facing an uphill battle on this.  More capacity but at higher prices means even more cabins unfilled, if his past passengers such as ourselves decide they can no longer cruise with them.

 

I know the new ships had a loyal following with HAL but they just aren't for me.  The latest cruise ships are criticised as floating blocks of flats, but the Bolette and Borealis are unfortunately not very pretty.  Their form is quite blocky, the stern is very square (unlike the cascading rear decks on the Braemar and Balmoral) and the bridge front isn't very attractive, and the two funnels don't look good when you compare the funnels on the Braemar, Balmoral and the two retired ships.  The interiors look very dated and seem not to have been updated since built, unlike Fred's previous fleet which had had many refits to keep them looking contemporary inside.

 

Unless you are extremely loyal to Fred. I can't think why you wouldn't spend the money and go with Viking or Saga (I'm not quite old enough for Saga yet), or on a budget go with Ambassador when they are up and running.  Cruising for me is more about the ship than the destinations and Fred's decision to go with these HAL ships just isn't an attractive offering.  I know the Black Watch and Boudicca were old, but they had a loyal following with Fred's cruisers and I'm not sure the new ships will ever gain that affection.

 

I will stick to the Balmoral and Braemar, if I can afford to, but that doesn't seem likely.  Failing that I can give Ambassador a go as they seem to offer more varied itineraries as Fred does.

Personally, I think Bolette has quite pleasing lines externally. To me though, the aft upper decks extension that HAL made to the now Borealis looks a real bodge job and ruins her lines.

[richard_london]

6 hours ago, Britboys said:

Personally, I think Bolette has quite pleasing lines externally. To me though, the aft upper decks extension that HAL made to the now Borealis looks a real bodge job and ruins her lines.

I looked at some pictures from the stern of both ships and see what you mean. This shows the difference well.

 

 

I hadn't realised that was added, and you are right Bolette looks much better without it.  The original front without those large rectangular windows above the bridge looked much better as in this photo (source https://crew-center.com/borealis-itinerary)

[Britboys]

4 minutes ago, richard_london said:

I looked at some pictures from the stern of both ships and see what you mean. This shows the difference well.

 

 

I hadn't realised that was added, and you are right Bolette looks much better without it.  The original front without those large rectangular windows above the bridge looked much better as in this photo (source https://crew-center.com/borealis-itinerary)

Yes, like many other lines/ships, additional cabins were added to Borealis at the aft. It also meant she lost a proper aft pool...

[twotravellersLondon]

7 hours ago, richard_london said:

I fear Fred. are facing an uphill battle on this.  More capacity but at higher prices means even more cabins unfilled, if his past passengers such as ourselves decide they can no longer cruise with them.

 

I've seen all manner of predictions about the future shape of the cruise industry and prices... but I think that the cruise lines' own strategic business plans, Cruise Line International Association core documents and CBI reports probably give the best idea of what we might expect.

 

Firstly, the cruise lines are looking at offering a broad range of experiences to suit cruisers of different generations, backgrounds, incomes and interests... casual-style contemporary cruises of a week or less... premium cruises that are more traditional and are for one to two weeks... and luxury cruise experiences in smaller ships offering very high standards of accommodation, food, service and exotic itineraries inaccessible to larger ships. So, the industry increasingly sees cruise tourism divided into specialist niches and target groups. For instance; expedition cruises for curious, nature-focused, adventurous individuals... world cruises suitable for more mature travellers without commitments... solo traveller cruises offering single-friendly prices for the confident independent travellers with a sense of adventure.

 

Secondly, the cruise lines are looking towards making a profit going forward and paying off the billions of debt that has accumulated during the covid-pause. Traditionally many lines have carried some cruisers at less than cost price... to pick up business on the price comparison sites.  Cruise lines hoped that the sale of extras including drinks, excursions, speciality dining, WIFI, photos and gratuities would tip the balance and make an overall profit. The problem for any cruise company is that if it sells a cruise at less than cost price and the cruiser is resistant to upselling.... the cruise company will make a loss. In 2019 the Carnival Corporation that runs 45% of all cruises worldwide spent $17,549 million on its operations but it only sold $14,104 million worth of cruise tickets. It was only $6,721 million onboard spend etc that allowed the corporation to make a $3,276 million profit. So the cruise industry increasingly sees the way forward as a move towards all-inclusive fares... as an example; Celebrity Cruises, Holland America and SAGA. 

 

Finally, there's not a problem with small ships... there is problem refitting older ships to make them economic and satisfy the new environmental regulations. The cruise industry is still building small expedition ships and specialist ships. In 2017-2019 Fred Olsen Jun. spoke to the press several times about the idea of two... and "why not four" 600 passenger exploration ships to take cruisers to smaller ports, less visited areas and more interesting places. According to the trade press discussions were already underway with the ship-building yards. If, like on real expedition ships, the entertainment, food offering and such like was more aimed at the target market... e.g. good, honest heathy and satisfying three course meals rather than an attempt at five course "fine dining"... specialist presentations on the area in the evenings by wildlife  and local specialists rather than the same old tired show or comedian... along with lower mooring charges and lower fuel costs... lower food waste... it would all become a very affordable offer for curious, nature-focused, adventurous. independently-minded individuals who want to enjoy interesting itineraries inaccessible to larger ships. also... so many single travellers would be interested if they were given a fair deal... at least one of the big comparison sites has deals for single travellers.

 

In an industry where the old idea "one ship fits all ages, tastes and pockets" is very rapidly being set to one side, I rather think that Fred Olsen Jun. recognised a very significant "niche" opportunity... just a shame that the events of 2020- got in the way.

 

 

[richard_london]

The summer 2023 cruise list is available on Fred's website.  Unfortunately single fares are too pricey for me.  Some nice itineraries if you wanted to take a look.

[Coravel]

They sometimes offer deals on single supplements and they are definitely worth looking out for. Sometimes we go away with my wife's twin sister as her husband is not keen on cruises so we keep an eye open for offers.

[richard_london]

7 hours ago, Coravel said:

They sometimes offer deals on single supplements and they are definitely worth looking out for. Sometimes we go away with my wife's twin sister as her husband is not keen on cruises so we keep an eye open for offers.

Thanks for the advice.  Do you know if when you book a solo deal that you can choose your cabin or is it that you get a guaranteed grade?  I thought it was latter but I tried a test booking and wasn't sure.

[Coravel]

I don't know for certain but I should imagine the latter.  Some of the deals my sister-in-law has had when travelling solo with us have had no surcharge at all.  The Black Friday deals of recent years usually contain several such offers.  If a cruise is not selling well they will often advertise it with no supplements for solo travellers.  Worth checking the website frequently! 

.  

[Britboys]

All prices in the new release are high if you ask me, even for two travelling together.

The solo prices are crazy. I looked at a 15 night itinerary to France and Spain. Cheapest inside cabin for a solo is £246 per night, taking off the £200 obc...

[tring]

28 minutes ago, Britboys said:

All prices in the new release are high if you ask me, even for two travelling together.

The solo prices are crazy. I looked at a 15 night itinerary to France and Spain. Cheapest inside cabin for a solo is £246 per night, taking off the £200 obc...

 

We actually have an Oceans party onboard Bolette tomorrow.  Now  I wonder why they have re started those.  Will try to find out about any single offers forthcoming, but will not be home until 25th. March.

[Britboys]

4 minutes ago, tring said:

 

We actually have an Oceans party onboard Bolette tomorrow.  Now  I wonder why they have re started those.  Will try to find out about any single offers forthcoming, but will not be home until 25th. March.

Enjoy the party Barbara. Maybe you can let them know that there are some of us out here that think their launch prices are ludicrous.... I for one will be waiting for Ambassador to publish their 2023 launch.