Port intelligence

[Rumpelstump]

June 26, at the Vancouver port around 4pm.  Sunny skis and warm weather.

 

Departing today were the HA Noordam,  Celebrity Eclipse, and the RC Serenade of the Seas.

 

Visual observations.  I saw the most people of the season today on the upper deck of the Noordam.  Coming in second was the Serenade and in third place was the Eclipse. Looks like passenger traffic is increasing.  Perhaps we are entering the peak Alaska cruise season, the sales promotions are working, or the weather was so good that more passengers elected to go out on the top deck to observe their departures.  

 

 

[Rumpelstump]

Do cruise lines have enough passenger momentum to be financially viable?

 

Carnival CEO Arnold was interview a few days ago on CNBC  arguing that the demand for cruises will enable them to achieve 110 percent occupancy this summer.    This optimistic forecast by corporate spokespersons was  in other public statements. During the earnings conference call , CCL CFO Bernstein emphasizes a return to positive cash flow.

Conflicting with the positive spin  pushed by CCL executives, a Barron's article points to Morgan Stanley's analysis of CCL CCL carries  tremendous debt and interest burden.  Looking back to the conference call it appears that CCL corporate uses passenger deposits to finance their cash flow burdens.   It also confronts higher fuel costs and other operating expenses.  Even a small slippage in passenger traffic has the potential to drive the company into debt default.   Lets hope the worst case scenario does not occur. 

 

My qualitative observation from only one of the many hundreds of cruise ports on this planet is that passenger traffic  lags the pre-covid peak year 2019.  I do not have any hard data. I would like to see the decks on the ships overflowing with passengers so we can maintain a viable cruise industry.  I look forward to  my next cruise-- still not yet booked!

 

 

[3rdGenCunarder]

FWIW, I heard estimates of 50% - 60% full on QE for the June 14 cruise. I would go with 50% based on how busy the theater, bars, and buffet were. We were in Skagway with Zuiderdam and Grand Princess. If all three ships had been full, that would have been at least 7,000 passengers. I've been to Skagway in the Before Times with two other ships, and what I saw this time was nothing like the way it's been before. The town was not busy at all, and there weren't nearly as many buses waiting to do tours. 

[Rumpelstump]

Thanks for the note 3rdGenCunarder.  Your increasing my confidence in my estimates. 

[Rumpelstump]

In Vancouver today at roughly 2:00pm, warm partly sunny. 

 

Holland America Zuiderdam 1916- 2272 passengers.  Steady stream of passengers boarding.  This ship might be mostly full.

 

Princess, Grand - 2600 passenger  Cannot tell the extent the ship is occupied. 

 

[Rumpelstump]

Statistics for Grand Princess and HA Koningsdam, yesterday July 23.....

 

Disembarkations Grand Princess 1793, Koningsdam  2000.   Embarkations 2100 Grand Princess and 2300 for the Koningsdam.  Source:  Port staff.   

 

 

Cruise appear to be running at 69- 88% capacity.

[Rumpelstump]

The Regent Mariner, resting in the drydock at North Vancouver.

 

[Rumpelstump]

Regent Seven Sea's Mariner, out of dry dock, departed Port of Vancouver today with roughly 400 passengers.  The passenger load is substantially below the ship's 700 passenger capacity.  Source: Port of Vancouver staff.

[Rumpelstump]

HA Zuiderdam arrived today in Port of Vancouver with roughly 500 passengers.  The ship departed with roughly 1200 passengers. This is substantially below the ship's 1916 passenger capacity.

 

Source: Port staff

[Rumpelstump]

Jason Liberty, CEO of Royal Caribbean was quoted saying that "to be profitable the company needs to maintain occupancy levels above 90%."   My observations from Vancouver are that Royal Carribian as well as other cruise lines fall short of those numbers.  Lets hope they can boost their sales.

[Rumpelstump]

This week, Norwegian Cruise Lines reported another disappointing quarterly earnings report.  Their  loss was roughly $480 million.  OUCH! 

 

Quoting from an article in Barron's  CEO Frank Del Rio said “We are encouraged by the continued strong consumer demand we are experiencing which is reflected in our record pricing, accelerating booking volumes, especially for 2023 and beyond, and highest ever onboard revenue generation.”  Given the cruise industry's tuff economic climate, del Rio's comment  is the best spin management can provide  their shareholders. 

 

One encouraging sign was that Norwegian's Regent Seven Sea's subsidiary ship, the Mariner, had roughly 600 passengers disembarking  in Vancouver from the end of their Alaska voyage.  There were roughly 600 passengers boarding on their new voyage going outbound today.  That is a healthier load of passengers or 87 percent of capacity. 

 

Anecdotally, an encouraging sign  for Holland America might be hype.    When I personally booked a cruise this week with Holland America, I had to wait on hold for roughly 40 minutes to speak with a sales agent signaling strong demand. On the flip side, they only required a one dollar deposit for a cruise reservation. So I have until 90 days till cruise time to really commit which is the spring of 2023.  The cruise I booked is scheduled for summer 2023. So, given the time to cancel with no penalty, demand is suspect. Mixed signals.

 

Today, 1600 passengers were disembarking and 1600 passengers were embarking on the Zuiderdam.  That is a moderate improvement filling their ship whose capacity is 1964 passengers. 

 

[Ferry_Watcher]

Thanks for your Vancouver Homeport cruise updates.  I really like your photos.  Thank you!

[Rumpelstump]

On Wednesday, August 17,  port workers told me there were roughly 1300 passengers boarding the Zuiderdam.  The passenger capacity is roughly 1970. Sorry for the delay in posting that.

 

Today, port workers told me that the Celebrity Millennium, having a capacity of 2218 passengers  had 900 passengers disembarking and 1300 embarking.  There were about 200 passengers disembarking Windstar Star Breeze and 200 embarking today. The Star Breeze capacity is 312.   

 

Many cruise ships serving Vancouver are running below breakeven.  Perhaps passengers on these voyages can reign in on the crowd sizes. 

[Rumpelstump]

Today, in the North Vancouver drydock are 1) National Geographic Resolution and 2) Oceania Regatta

[Rumpelstump]

Few items to report today

 

1) The HA Koningsdam has about 2026 passengers departing today. Capacity 2650

2) The Majestic Princess has about 960 passengers departing today.  Capacity 3560.    Wow are they running near empty!   Also,  this large ship has to depart during low tide to fit under the Lions Gate Bridge. The ship is still in port as I write this post.

3) The Oceania Regatta is still in port as of 9:13 pm tonight.  The ship was scheduled to depart at 6PM 

 

My sources for this information  are Vancouver Port staff.  

 

Additionally,  The Regatta required some repairs at the C-Span ship yards in North Vancouver.  C-Span workers are on strike contributing to delays.

 

The low passenger loads on these ships, especially the Majestic, suggest the hot demand for cruises as described by the cruise companies,  are more hype than fact.  I realize that Vancouver is only one port.  The situation may be different elsewhere.  I still think Vancouver  port is a fair bell weather indicating that the cruise industry continues to suffer from weak demand.    We shall see if I am correct.

[Sea saw 56]

Thank you for your reports.  I have enjoyed following them!

[Rumpelstump]

Labor disputes creating cruise ship departure delays in the Port of Vancouver. 

[Rumpelstump]

Today Viking's Orion is departing with 740 passengers.  Not too bad for a ship having a capacity of 930 because 80% full appears to be a good fill as compared with other cruises.

 

The Zuiderdam has 1300 passengers today--  68% full.

 

Source: port staff.   

 

I could not get a count of the number of passengers on the Grand Princess.  Lets just say "not too many!"

[Rumpelstump]

On Thursday, September 1, the Silver Sea's Muse dopped off 220 passengers and picked up 220 passengers.  These voyages held under 35% of the ships 596-guest capacity.

 

Source:  Port of Vancouver/Canada Place staff.