Carnival Stock Below $10

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

where does one get the information on what the break even point is? Your reply says around 80% while wheres walter said around 35% which I think is way to low but since I have no idea where to gain the information I'd thought I'd ask.

Carnival Corp needs 25 ships sailing at 100%

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/carnival-corp-needs-25-ships-sailing-full-occupancy-break-even

 

Generally, the break-even occupancy for any Carnival ship is in the 30% to 50% range, depending its size, according to CFO David Bernstein.

[Badfinger]

20 hours ago, mz-s said:

 

If Carnival Corp dies then I don't see how any cruise line survives.

 

I would think just the opposite.  As an analogy...if Lowes went out of business, would not that be a great thing for Home Depot? 

[mz-s]

Just now, Badfinger said:

 

I would think just the opposite.  As an analogy...if Lowes went out of business, would not that be a great thing for Home Depot? 

 

If Lowe's went out of business because Home Depot out pizza'ed the hut so to speak, sure. But I don't see that as what's happening here. I'd see Carnival's failure as a bellwether for the pleasure cruise industry at large.

[Badfinger]

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

 

If Lowe's went out of business because Home Depot out pizza'ed the hut so to speak, sure. But I don't see that as what's happening here. I'd see Carnival's failure as a bellwether for the pleasure cruise industry at large.

 

Well, maybe the other lines are outdoing Carnival during these times.  Actually that would not be hard to do...they could just make us wait only 40 minutes for our breakfast in the MDR and that would be out-performing carnival by 1 hour, or having 2 guys working the pizza counter.  Based upon our last cruise, our 8th on CCL, they have set the bar very low.

[Muffin Slayer]

Maybe people not going to take cruises any more because there is too many problems.  If we take the train or fly we can just go on a land based tour.  And see a lot of more things and if not on a tour , then a lot more relaxing and  if we dont like the hotel or restaurant, we can go somewhere else.  Cruises were good when the service and food was good, now its not even acceptable sometimes.

[Illbcruzn4life]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Carnival Corp needs 25 ships sailing at 100%

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/carnival-corp-needs-25-ships-sailing-full-occupancy-break-even

 

Generally, the break-even occupancy for any Carnival ship is in the 30% to 50% range, depending its size, according to CFO David Bernstein.

Thanks for the link but I didn’t see the part about the break even occupancy.

[cruisingguy007]

1 hour ago, Badfinger said:

 

I would think just the opposite.  As an analogy...if Lowes went out of business, would not that be a great thing for Home Depot? 

 

For market share, possibly, for the end user/consumer, terrible! Competition breeds innovation, improves customer service and helps keep prices lower/competitive. A good example of that is when Google encroached on Comcast (now called Xfinity) and wanted to lay fiber lines all over to get Gigabit speeds out to large swaths of the country for a low price. Comcast nearly shyt their pants and spent a crap-ton of cash to improve speeds to peoples homes, while at the same time, doing all they could to crush Google's efforts. They eventually prevailed but customers ultimately won with faster speeds from all the upgrades. Sure enough, as soon as they re-secured their monopoly, they cut all the improvements/upgrades substantially. No need when you have a monopoly and only one/two competitors who only offer sub-par service options. Competition is a good thing, ney a great thing for consumers.     

[mz-s]

46 minutes ago, Badfinger said:

 

Well, maybe the other lines are outdoing Carnival during these times.  Actually that would not be hard to do...they could just make us wait only 40 minutes for our breakfast in the MDR and that would be out-performing carnival by 1 hour, or having 2 guys working the pizza counter.  Based upon our last cruise, our 8th on CCL, they have set the bar very low.

 

That is a good point, Carnival's product is horribly diluted right now compared to even just before COVID.

[tidecat]

10 hours ago, ColeThornton said:

This may be a dumb question but I'm going to ask anyway because Lord knows it wont be the first time.  🙂

 

Can a U.S. stock actually go down to $0 without the company going in to bankruptcy?   Or, would the SEC step in when it gets to a certain level like $1 or $2 and stop public trading on it?

 

Thanks!

 

 

Different exchanges have different rules. Typically most major stocks (NYSE, NASDAQ) are delisted when they trade below $1 for a period of time.

 

Theoretically the stock price has nothing to do with the company's solvency - it is just money changing hands between third parties, unless if it's an Initial Public Offering (IPO) or a secondary offering in which the company sells new shares, diluting existing shreholders. But if the stock is trading near zero, there usually is a reason, and that reason isn't good.

 

Most likely Carnival would sell off large numbers of underperforming assets - ships, private destinations, real estate for company offices, etc. rather than go bankrupt with 80+ ships, multiple private islands, etc.

[ew101]

6 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

where does one get the information on what the break even point is? Your reply says around 80% while wheres walter said around 35% which I think is way to low but since I have no idea where to gain the information I'd thought I'd ask.

This came from this report ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2022 RESULTS AND PROVIDES A BUSINESS UPDATE (yahoo.com)  ..."The Group expects to operate approximately 10.3 million Available Passenger Cruise Days (APCD) for the second quarter with load factors of 75% to 80%. The Group also expects cash flow from ships in operation to be positive in the second quarter. Operating cash flow significantly improved throughout the first quarter and is turning positive in April."

 

The 30-50% was possibly for a brand new 3500+ passenger mega ship which has similar fixed operating costs to a smaller one.  But we are talking fleet average here.  

[BlerkOne]

34 minutes ago, ew101 said:

 

The 30-50% was possibly for a brand new 3500+ passenger mega ship which has similar fixed operating costs to a smaller one.  But we are talking fleet average here.  

30-50% was from the Chief Financial Officer for Carnival Corporation for the Carnival Fleet.

[ew101]

We can do our own math here.  If Carnival was at Carnival Earnings: What Happened with CCL (investopedia.com) 69% occupancy in or by the end of Q2 2022 and still losing money, the real breakeven occupancy number has to be higher, closer to 80%.  

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by ew101

[mz-s]

3 minutes ago, ew101 said:

We can do our own math here.  If Carnival was at Carnival Earnings: What Happened with CCL (investopedia.com) 69% occupancy in or by the end of Q2 2022 and still losing money, the real breakeven occupancy number has to be higher, closer to 80%.  

 

 

You are forgetting about Costa, Cunard, Princess, all the other lines Carnival owns. CCL might be sailing full - but those other lines are not.

[Badfinger]

3 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

For market share, possibly, for the end user/consumer, terrible! Competition breeds innovation, improves customer service and helps keep prices lower/competitive. A good example of that is when Google encroached on Comcast (now called Xfinity) and wanted to lay fiber lines all over to get Gigabit speeds out to large swaths of the country for a low price. Comcast nearly shyt their pants and spent a crap-ton of cash to improve speeds to peoples homes, while at the same time, doing all they could to crush Google's efforts. They eventually prevailed but customers ultimately won with faster speeds from all the upgrades. Sure enough, as soon as they re-secured their monopoly, they cut all the improvements/upgrades substantially. No need when you have a monopoly and only one/two competitors who only offer sub-par service options. Competition is a good thing, ney a great thing for consumers.     

 

I was not responding to what it does to the consumer.

 

[ew101]

2 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

You are forgetting about Costa, Cunard, Princess, all the other lines Carnival owns. CCL might be sailing full - but those other lines are not.

Yes.  I would not want to be the President or CFO of a line with low occupancy calling HQ for more cash...

 

[mz-s]

3 minutes ago, ew101 said:

Yes.  I would not want to be the President or CFO of a line with low occupancy calling HQ for more cash...

 

I think Costa may be one of those low occupancy lines, and look how many ships CCL is taking from them.

[BlerkOne]

47 minutes ago, ew101 said:

We can do our own math here.  If Carnival was at Carnival Earnings: What Happened with CCL (investopedia.com) 69% occupancy in or by the end of Q2 2022 and still losing money, the real breakeven occupancy number has to be higher, closer to 80%.  

 

I will believe the numbers from a corporate officer who actually has access to all of the data. HAL finally got all of their ships back in service this month. I don't care enough to look up the other lines.

[BlerkOne]

42 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

I think Costa may be one of those low occupancy lines, and look how many ships CCL is taking from them.

Costa capacity is higher now with the delivery of their second LNG ship.

[BlerkOne]

50 minutes ago, ew101 said:

Yes.  I would not want to be the President or CFO of a line with low occupancy calling HQ for more cash...

 

I don't know that any have.

[tidecat]

Costa got screwed by China remaining closed. Hence Luminosa to Carnival on a permanent basis, and then Venezia and Firenze-ehichbwere originally meant for China-for Costa by Carnival

[ano]

6 hours ago, Muffin Slayer said:

Maybe people not going to take cruises any more because there is too many problems.  If we take the train or fly we can just go on a land based tour.  And see a lot of more things and if not on a tour , then a lot more relaxing and  if we dont like the hotel or restaurant, we can go somewhere else.  Cruises were good when the service and food was good, now its not even acceptable sometimes.

Wow, you summed us up in a few sentences perfectly.  15 - 20 years ago, cruises were very special, and the fact that we were in an exotic cruise city for only 4 hours was acceptable.  But once the special cruise food and service disappeared, over those 15 - 20 years, we realized you see SO much more with a land tour. You meet more people and REALLY see the places you want to explore. Sure buses or trains are not cruise ships, but the touring experience is SO MUCH better. Our most memorable trips are not the cruises.  We loved cruises but all we loved is now an extra cost option, if it even exists at all.

[Illbcruzn4life]

3 hours ago, mz-s said:

 

You are forgetting about Costa, Cunard, Princess, all the other lines Carnival owns. CCL might be sailing full - but those other lines are not.

even if CCL is sailing full how many of those pax are booked with these super cheap rates?

[Illbcruzn4life]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

I will believe the numbers from a corporate officer who actually has access to all of the data. HAL finally got all of their ships back in service this month. I don't care enough to look up the other lines.

I would believe the numbers of a corporate officer if I heard them from his mouth or I read a quote from said CFO.

 

Not believing it just because somebody post  on Cruise Critic that the CFO said so.

[CruiseScrooge]

6 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

even if CCL is sailing full how many of those pax are booked with these super cheap rates?

I don't think you cruise solo. The fares and deals for solo passengers are worse than before covid.

[Saint Greg]

4 minutes ago, CruiseScrooge said:

I don't think you cruise solo. The fares and deals for solo passengers are worse than before covid.

That’s not true at all from my experience.