Could the HAL Brand be sold off?

[BermudaBound2014]

Could the HAL brand be sold? At least one analyst is throwing HAL in the hat.

 

"In April, Scholes raised the possibility that Carnival Corporation could sell the Seabourn brand, which specializes in luxury cruises, or the Holland America brand in a research note to investors." 

 

In answering Scholes on Friday, Donald added that Carnival Corporation would “evaluate any and all options” for the company, including a sale of brands.

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-corporation-cruise-brand-sale-question/

 

IMO, it is unlikely that CCL can maintain all  9 of it's brand with the current debt at 35Billion and climbing. In last weeks earnings call, CCL stated that 2nd quarter ships are sailing at 69% (up from 54% first quarter) which added another 2Billion to their debt. Ships need to sail at 95% occupancy to turn profitable and CCL isn't predicting this will happen until 2023. Rumor mill has a Seabourn deal already in the works with the Saudi Sovereignty. IMO, just selling Seabourn won't be enough. The interest only payment on current debt is 120 Million per month. The move of 3 Costa ships into the Carnival brand is also interesting. 

 

I will not be making any long range deposits on any of the 3 major cruise lines. They are all very fragile at the moment. 

 

 

 

[WriterOnDeck]

For the right price, anything can be sold. Of course, remember at one time HAL wasn't part of Carnival...

[SJSULIBRARIAN]

I saw that article and also wondered.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Actually I have been suspecting this for a while and have had stronger feelings about in the last few weeks. I would not be the least surprised that HAL/Seabourn could be sold as a package deal. While one might think that, that large of sale would not happen I do believe there are possible contenders. While not the same the new buyers of Crystal Cruises may be bringing back the glory days of Crystal and I feel they will be successful.  

I honestly would not be concerned with booking future cruises with HAL, converting to new owners would be a gradual change, much like the sale of Azamara. I think it could be a good thing for HAL and get rid of those at the top that I feel have been ruining the cruise line for the past decade.

[Mary229]

It seemed for a few years that Princess and HAL were merging but during the pandemic the lines veered away with Princess committing to larger ships.  I was encouraged when Gus came out said that he felt the exotic and in depth itineraries were HAL’s niche.  I applauded that.   
 

since then the relaunch and geopolitical concerns have made the cruise world smaller.  Asia seems unhurried to open.   The worsening relations with China as they align with Russia leaves me wondering if western cruise lines will ever be returning to their sphere of influence any time soon.  As I see it Russia has removed the Baltics from the itinerary, the cruise lines haven’t quite figured that out yet but it is not at all clear that 2023 will be any better in the Baltics.  Meanwhile Europe is suffering from food and fuel  inflation that will impede the leisure flyer as much if not more than Covid testing.  We are left with the Americas, Africa and perhaps India (that is a murky outlook too, geopolitically).

 

as to the cruise lines as the world gets smaller there is going to be consolidation.  Some of that will be the disappearance and bankruptcy of some lines, some will be merged.  I certainly hope HAL remains as a stand alone.  The new deglobalized economy may lead to more privatization and who knows, some Dutch  mogul may come and buy HAL from CCL

[BermudaBound2014]

24 minutes ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

Actually I have been suspecting this for a while and have had stronger feelings about in the last few weeks. I would not be the least surprised that HAL/Seabourn could be sold as a package deal. While one might think that, that large of sale would not happen I do believe there are possible contenders. While not the same the new buyers of Crystal Cruises may be bringing back the glory days of Crystal and I feel they will be successful.  

I honestly would not be concerned with booking future cruises with HAL, converting to new owners would be a gradual change, much like the sale of Azamara. I think it could be a good thing for HAL and get rid of those at the top that I feel have been ruining the cruise line for the past decade.

 

We've been discussing this in the stock forum thread for months. It's an interested thread if this is your jam. We're a fun group :). 

 

I do respectfully disagree with future bookings being safe. You absolutely could be correct, but it's still up in the air. Take a look at the Crystal forum. Lots of guests out to the tune of $10,000+ dollars. We don't have any evidence that if this happens it will be a gradual change anymore than we have evidence there will be a hostile take over (which is on the table). Chapter 7/11/et all. It's simply still too early to know.

 

What we do know is that the buyer will likely purchase for pennies on the dollar given the current financial state of CCL. And any buyer needs to be SUPER cash flush. CCL is still hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate.

Edited June 26, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

10 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

 The new deglobalized economy may lead to more privatization and who knows, some Dutch  mogul may come and buy HAL from CCL

 

Exactly, we just don't know. Lots of possibilities (private equity, hedge funds, etc..). 

 

I do think that the expedition market and the luxury market are poised best to move forward in the new economy. HAL's exotic itineraries are going to always make them desirable. 

 

The only thing I am certain of is that change is on the horizon. 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, WriterOnDeck said:

For the right price, anything can be sold. Of course, remember at one time HAL wasn't part of Carnival...

 

I suspect the right price is going to be pennies on the dollar given the current financial sheet of CCL, but that's nothing more than pure speculation on my part. 

[Mary229]

I don’t see a bankruptcy in CCL’s future.  If HAL is sold off it is in the seller and buyers self interest to keep the passengers whole.  When you buy a business you are not only buying the physical assets, you are are buying brand, goodwill, customers.   Crystal was not a merger or acquisition, it wasn’t even a normal bankruptcy.  Crystal was a seizure because bad actions.   Bankruptcy is usually a managed affair, there is no bankruptcy court on earth that would have told them to just run, don’t look back. 😉

[LAFFNVEGAS]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

We've been discussing this in the stock forum thread for months. It's an interested thread if this is your jam. We're a fun group :). 

 

I do respectfully disagree with future bookings being safe. You absolutely could be correct, but it's still up in the air. Take a look at the Crystal forum. Lots of guests out to the tune of $10,000+ dollars. We don't have any evidence that if this happens it will be a gradual change anymore than we have evidence there will be a hostile take over (which is on the table). Chapter 7/11/et all. It's simply still too early to know.

 

What we do know is that the buyer will likely purchase for pennies on the dollar given the current financial state of CCL. And any buyer needs to be SUPER cash flush. CCL is still hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate.

I am fully aware many lost money with Crystal which is very unfortunate and I totally blame Genting Group that game out of this smelling like a Rose and truly did not suffer any. I have words for them that would be removed from this page lol. But What I meant by my reference is that I think a few years from now Crystal could once again be what they were 10 years ago. 

I think the same could be true with Holland America. But without as many losing thousands. At this point with HAL only those not booking and using their Future Cruise Deposits are those that will be losing money.

I personally think that change would be a good thing for Holland America since they drifted so far off course. I would be hopeful new management at the top would have a better feel for making money bringing back what the cruise consumer expects.

[MISTER 67]

It wouldn't bother me at all, competition is a good thing and I'd love someone to buy HAL and return it to policies of the past such as Dutch Night in the MDR, music combos and dancing in the Ocean Bar and traditional promenade decks with HAL's steamer chairs just to name a few.

We like to cruise with Princess also and if Carnival sold HAL it would probably make Princess a better brand as again competition is a good thing.

Edited June 26, 2022 by MISTER 67

[LAFFNVEGAS]

14 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly, we just don't know. Lots of possibilities (private equity, hedge funds, etc..). 

 

I do think that the expedition market and the luxury market are poised best to move forward in the new economy. HAL's exotic itineraries are going to always make them desirable. 

 

The only thing I am certain of is that change is on the horizon. 

As well as many of HAL ships being top heavy with large suites. But where HAL has failed is what they offer and how they treat the Suite Guests. They have a lot to learn from their competition. HAL ships could easily be converted to be more like Celebrity Retreat, NCL Haven or MSC Yacht Club. I think they will find that will be where the revenue will increase. Any investor looking to purchase HAL will be doing just that.

[BermudaBound2014]

32 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I don’t see a bankruptcy in CCL’s future.  If HAL is sold off it is in the seller and buyers self interest to keep the passengers whole.  When you buy a business you are not only buying the physical assets, you are are buying brand, goodwill, customers.   Crystal was not a merger or acquisition, it wasn’t even a normal bankruptcy.  Crystal was a seizure because bad actions.   Bankruptcy is usually a managed affair, there is no bankruptcy court on earth that would have told them to just run, don’t look back. 😉

 

I don't see bankruptcy for all of CCL either (I can't say that for some of the other lines). CCL is simply behemoth with lots of ability to part out to pay debt. I am just not confident that what happened to Crystal guests won't happen to others. There is a LOT of debt here to offload. I've been sailing long enough to remember what happened with Regency Cruise line and their guests (I was almost caught up in that mess). The staff was left to trade cabin televisions for food. I'm not saying things will get that ugly, but when it comes to making deposits, I'm erroring on the side of keeping my money in my own pocket for the time being. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Mary229]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

debt. I am just not confident that what happened to Crystal guests won't happen to others

It may happen somewhere but I don’t expect it within the CCL clan.  They are “too big to fail” and will seek orderly sales and mergers.  That doesn’t mean your cruise won’t get cancelled, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cost cutting.

[1ANGELCAT]

Isn’t Arnold Donald on the way out ? Too much has happened during his tenure.

[Mary229]

2 minutes ago, 1ANGELCAT said:

Isn’t Arnold Donald on the way out ? Too much has happened during his tenure.

The new handpicked CEO starts in August. 

[rodndonna]

6 minutes ago, 1ANGELCAT said:

Isn’t Arnold Donald on the way out ? Too much has happened during his tenure.

 

the whole "Covid-thing" comes to mind...

[1ANGELCAT]

1 minute ago, rodndonna said:

 

the whole "Covid-thing" comes to mind...

I was thinking more about the repeated pollution violations. 

[Mary229]

Just now, 1ANGELCAT said:

I was thinking more about the repeated pollution violations. 

I think their fleet upgrades to more fuel efficient ships indicates they are trying to have a cohesive environmental policy.   It was a stated consideration when they were choosing ships to sell off 

[BermudaBound2014]

44 minutes ago, 1ANGELCAT said:

I was thinking more about the repeated pollution violations. 

 

Yes, there is the repeated pollution violations and the data breaches that were just ruled in court as well.  (https://ncdoj.gov/attorney-general-josh-stein-reaches-1-25-million-multistate-settlement-with-carnival-cruise-line-over-its-2019-data-breach/)

 

I suppose the good news is that Weinstein will also take on the role of Chief Climate Officer ;-). 

 

"As previously announced, effective August 1st, Arnold Donald, President and CEO, is being appointed Vice Chair of the Boards of Directors. Josh Weinstein, currently Chief Operations Officer for the company, will assume the role of President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. At that time, Weinstein will also assume the role of Chief Climate Officer and become a Director on the Boards of Directors. A 20-year veteran of Carnival Corporation & plc, Weinstein has a long history of success in critical senior-level roles in the company."   https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-second-quarter-2022-business

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

45 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I think their fleet upgrades to more fuel efficient ships indicates they are trying to have a cohesive environmental policy.   It was a stated consideration when they were choosing ships to sell off 

 

I suspect both decisions were more about finances than anything else, but do acknowledge that in todays world of sustainable tourism movement these are important things for a company to consider (not to mention cost of energy). 

[Mary229]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I suspect both decisions were more about finances than anything else, but do acknowledge that in todays world of sustainable tourism movement these are important things for a company to consider (not to mention cost of energy). 

Finances are always foremost, they are a business😉.  As you mention the sustainable paradigm is a win-win for them, cheaper energy and good relations. 

[BermudaBound2014]

And we can't forget that Costa just launched it's second LNG powered ship:

 

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/costa-cruises-christens-2nd-lng-powered-cruise-ship/

 

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

I am fully aware many lost money with Crystal which is very unfortunate and I totally blame Genting Group that game out of this smelling like a Rose and truly did not suffer any. I have words for them that would be removed from this page lol. But What I meant by my reference is that I think a few years from now Crystal could once again be what they were 10 years ago. 

I think the same could be true with Holland America. But without as many losing thousands. At this point with HAL only those not booking and using their Future Cruise Deposits are those that will be losing money.

I personally think that change would be a good thing for Holland America since they drifted so far off course. I would be hopeful new management at the top would have a better feel for making money bringing back what the cruise consumer expects.

Or, considering the owner and the management, they may be a Silver Sea Clone.  

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't see bankruptcy for all of CCL either (I can't say that for some of the other lines). CCL is simply behemoth with lots of ability to part out to pay debt. I am just not confident that what happened to Crystal guests won't happen to others. There is a LOT of debt here to offload. I've been sailing long enough to remember what happened with Regency Cruise line and their guests (I was almost caught up in that mess). The staff was left to trade cabin televisions for food. I'm not saying things will get that ugly, but when it comes to making deposits, I'm erroring on the side of keeping my money in my own pocket for the time being. 

Crystal was a liquidation, if CCL were to do something it would be a reorg.