Could the HAL Brand be sold off?

[Oceansaway17]

HAL ships are nicely made but the cruise line needs to try to become more family oriented to compete with RCI and CCL.

I for one like the idea of a slower pace and less sports, but hey the market is what it is. Younger folks under 40 want action packed trips.

Time will tell for some of the older HAL ships though.

[SargassoPirate]

Personally, I suspect that if the pre-cruise covid testing were dropped, the pent-up demand for cruises would be unleashed.  Just my opinion, having done four cruises since the restart.  The testing is the biggest hassle of the cruise.

 

 

[Mary229]

26 minutes ago, Oceansaway17 said:

HAL ships are nicely made but the cruise line needs to try to become more family oriented to compete with RCI and CCL.

I for one like the idea of a slower pace and less sports, but hey the market is what it is. Younger folks under 40 want action packed trips.

Time will tell for some of the older HAL ships though.

I don’t think HAL wants to compete with CCL and probably not RCL either.  HAL has been in a curious niche because of its notable long itineraries which are not usually what families seek.   There is plenty of room in the market for a quieter demographic, regardless of age. There is quite a bit of room in the market for the older itinerary, because bluntly, that is where the money is.  The under 40s do not command the portion of wealth that those older than 40 command 

[Oceansaway17]

1 minute ago, Mary229 said:

I don’t think HAL wants to compete with CCL and probably not RCL either.  HAL has been in a curious niche because of its notable long itineraries which are not usually what families seek.   There is plenty of room in the market for a quieter demographic, regardless of age. There is quite a bit of room in the market for the older itinerary, because bluntly, that is where the money is.  The under 40s do not command the portion of wealth that those older than 40 command 

oh I do agree, but if the line is not making enough money, they might have to change with the times.

I do think they have way too many cruises over 21 days and wish they would have a bit less or break it up.  I think couples with babies would like HAL as it would be nice to walk around the promenade with strollers and would be relaxing for young parents.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

8 minutes ago, SargassoPirate said:

Personally, I suspect that if the pre-cruise covid testing were dropped, the pent-up demand for cruises would be unleashed.  Just my opinion, having done four cruises since the restart.  The testing is the biggest hassle of the cruise.

 

 

I agree with you 200%. People do not want hassle to vacation and cruise. Sometimes it is not worth it, especially if it is an add cost to go get everyone tested. I think the demand will increase drastically once they lift the testing. 

But I am still a believe that HAL needs to refresh their product offerings, it is old and stale. Too many others are offering a more upscale experience that somehow HAL got stuck back in 1999.

[Tampa Girl]

3 minutes ago, Oceansaway17 said:

oh I do agree, but if the line is not making enough money, they might have to change with the times.

I do think they have way too many cruises over 21 days and wish they would have a bit less or break it up.  I think couples with babies would like HAL as it would be nice to walk around the promenade with strollers and would be relaxing for young parents.

 Heaven forbid!  There are enough other cruise lines that can offer that, IMHO, terrifying picture.  Babies in strollers clogging up the promenade deck???

[rodndonna]

3 minutes ago, Oceansaway17 said:

oh I do agree, but if the line is not making enough money, they might have to change with the times.

I do think they have way too many cruises over 21 days and wish they would have a bit less or break it up.  I think couples with babies would like HAL as it would be nice to walk around the promenade with strollers and would be relaxing for young parents.

 

 

I agree with you both, HAL has to be a niche (do we need another mass market option?) BUT, as much as the older demo have the money and travel, they (we?) don;'t spend on the boat the way the younger people do (excursions, drinks, photos, shops, spas) etc. When you are young and it is a once a year family holiday, you spend. When you are old, retired, and taking many holidays a year, you pull in the reins...

 

[Mary229]

8 minutes ago, Oceansaway17 said:

oh I do agree, but if the line is not making enough money, they might have to change with the times.

I do think they have way too many cruises over 21 days and wish they would have a bit less or break it up.  I think couples with babies would like HAL as it would be nice to walk around the promenade with strollers and would be relaxing for young parents.

Those long voyages sell out and command top dollar per day (in the HAL universe of prices).  There is a demographic for those long cruises.  HAL would not be my favorite except for those great itineraries.

 

Remember HAL is owned by CCL.  CCL is obviously is undergoing a change.  I think that change is to position each of their different lines in markets defined by the style and itineraries.   I hope they continue HAL  semi-expeditionary style going in-depth to exotic locales. 
 

 For the cruises you describe Alaska is your best bet, from what I hear they excel in Alaska and those tend to be under 14 days.  They also do the New England/eastern Canada very well, again short voyages.  
 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Mary229

[Tampa Girl]

1 minute ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

I agree with you 200%. People do not want hassle to vacation and cruise. Sometimes it is not worth it, especially if it is an add cost to go get everyone tested. I think the demand will increase drastically once they lift the testing. 

But I am still a believe that HAL needs to refresh their product offerings, it is old and stale. Too many others are offering a more upscale experience that somehow HAL got stuck back in 1999.

 

I agree that, at least for us, the testing is discouraging us from being too optimistic about our HAL  2024 WC.  With all the ports, if testing s still required, it will be almost certain that there will be periods of quarantine.  And what would happen if there is not room in Quarantine?  And if ports refuse to let us dock because of an extraordinary Covid quarantines?  This virus does not appear to be going away, so the fact that the cruise is still 18 months away is not a big consolation.  I will be curious to see how the HAL 2023 WC works out before we make any decision to cancel.

[WriterOnDeck]

25 minutes ago, Oceansaway17 said:

oh I do agree, but if the line is not making enough money, they might have to change with the times.

I do think they have way too many cruises over 21 days and wish they would have a bit less or break it up.  I think couples with babies would like HAL as it would be nice to walk around the promenade with strollers and would be relaxing for young parents.

Most of the HAL cruises over 21 days are collectors -- b2b cruises. As one who seeks longer cruises, or itineraries that stack up nicely without constant repeats, I'm in the market for more long ones...

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, Oceansaway17 said:

HAL ships are nicely made but the cruise line needs to try to become more family oriented to compete with RCI and CCL.

I for one like the idea of a slower pace and less sports, but hey the market is what it is. Younger folks under 40 want action packed trips.

Time will tell for some of the older HAL ships though.

Carnival Corp already has a cruise line to compete in that space it is Carnival Cruise Line and it competes for the family market against NCL and RCL.

 

HAL is positioned to compete against Celebrity.  Basically the couples market with some kids.  Princess also competes in that portion of the market, but HAL is a bit different with smaller ships and often longer itineraries.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by ldtr

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I do respectfully disagree with future bookings being safe. You absolutely could be correct, but it's still up in the air. Take a look at the Crystal forum. Lots of guests out to the tune of $10,000+ dollars. We don't have any evidence that if this happens it will be a gradual change anymore than we have evidence there will be a hostile take over (which is on the table). Chapter 7/11/et all. It's simply still too early to know.

 

I would not compare Crystal to CCL. Crystal was a small hobby horse that the owners allowed to run into the ground. The suppliers cut off deliveries because the owners couldn't make a deal for new money.

 

CCL is a more professional operation. They're keenly aware of their cash flow situation. They'll try to liquidate their assets in an orderly manner. The question is who do they keep, and who do they sell?

 

With an orderly deal, the pax will be protected because customer goodwill is important. That said, my advise is to keep your FCC to a minimal. No one knows how this thing will progress.

[Mary229]

I was searching to review the HAL/CCL merger details.  I came across this article. It is a trip down memory lane but do notice how high prices were back in the day.  I expect those prices may not only be a distant memory but came back around soon

 

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-02-12-tr-2780-story.html

[Mary229]

Former owners have a pile of cash

 

https://moneyweek.com/517741/van-der-vorm-the-dutch-billionaires-who-keep-schtum

[rkacruiser]

Many interesting posts on this thread.  I'll add my thoughts.

 

Mr. Donald's departure as CEO provides new blood in that corner office with, I hope, fresh thinking.  Mr. Donald has not been the "problem".  For HAL, the problems were the brilliant decisions to appoint the previous President of HAL and the failure to replace the retirements/resignations of the Senior Executive Vice-Presidents in charge of many guest oriented divisions by those who were not properly qualified for that job.  As I understand it, some of these gentlemen had never set foot on a cruise ship.  

 

One poster commented on the inequality of the Neptune Suite cruise experience as compared to other cruise lines' suite guests experiences.  There is a difference.  There is also a difference in price.  Could HAL change that?  Yes.  HAL cannot replicate the same physical suite experience that one has in comparison with the Yacht Club.  But, some of the YC amenities?  Yes.  They could be replicated.  

 

1 hour ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

People do not want hassle to vacation and cruise. Sometimes it is not worth it, especially if it is an add cost to go get everyone tested. I think the demand will increase drastically once they lift the testing. 

But I am still a believe that HAL needs to refresh their product offerings, it is old and stale. Too many others are offering a more upscale experience that somehow HAL got stuck back in 1999.

 

There needs to be a more imaginative cruise experience offered by HAL to meet their advertising slogan of "Signature of Excellence".  Many of the elements of that remain, i.e. their crew.  The improvement and adding additional specialty restaurants has been a positive step.  If MDR dining matched what I have experienced in Sel de Mer--stand alone or pop-up--those who rave about dining on ships whose company names starts with "O" might migrate to HAL.  

 

When am I booking a cruise?  Not any time soon regardless of the deals that exist.  Too many hoops to go through to travel.  Flying?  Forget it!  As part of a business trip, I'd accept it.  As part of a leisure travel trip, not in 2022!

 

HAL will remain part of the CCL family of cruise companies, in my opinion.  

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

With an orderly deal, the pax will be protected because customer goodwill is important. That said, my advise is to keep your FCC to a minimal. No one knows how this thing will progress.

 

Bingo.... Exactly what I said ;-). 

Edited June 27, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, ldtr said:

Crystal was a liquidation, if CCL were to do something it would be a reorg.

 

Exactly what I've been saying. I suspect CCL will just peel off brands to pay interest/debt. However; no one knows how things will pan out here. If Covid has taught us anything, it's that things can change on a dime. The only thing we know for certain is that there is 35 Billion dollars of debt that continues to grow each day.

Edited June 27, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Darfun]

8 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

We've been discussing this in the stock forum thread for months. It's an interested thread if this is your jam. We're a fun group :). 

 

I do respectfully disagree with future bookings being safe. You absolutely could be correct, but it's still up in the air. Take a look at the Crystal forum. Lots of guests out to the tune of $10,000+ dollars. We don't have any evidence that if this happens it will be a gradual change anymore than we have evidence there will be a hostile take over (which is on the table). Chapter 7/11/et all. It's simply still too early to know.

 

What we do know is that the buyer will likely purchase for pennies on the dollar given the current financial state of CCL. And any buyer needs to be SUPER cash flush. CCL is still hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate.

I was t able to find the group. Can you send the link. I’d love to be a part of that group. 
 

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, SargassoPirate said:

Personally, I suspect that if the pre-cruise covid testing were dropped, the pent-up demand for cruises would be unleashed.  Just my opinion, having done four cruises since the restart.  The testing is the biggest hassle of the cruise.

 

 

No doubt testing is an obstacle.

mandatory vaccine is also an obstacle

possible quarantine is a big obstacle for many

mandatory mask is an obstacle for some

public perception of cruises as a Petri dish is an obstacle

The current state of the airline travel  is an obstacle 

 

Im not making a judgement on any of the above- simply saying all these things keep some people off ships and right now ships need every single body they can get. 

With all that said, I suspect inflation is soon to be the biggest obstacle for American families. No amount of pent up demand for travel will trump our basic needs. 

 

Cruise lines can’t catch a break.

 

 

Edited June 27, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly what I've been saying. I suspect CCL will just peel off brands to pay interest/debt. However; no one knows how things will pan out here. If Covid has taught us anything, it's that things can change on a dime. The only thing we know for certain is that there is 35 Billion dollars of debt that continues to grow each day.

No, while they might sell some brands to avoid a BK, they would not need to do so if they did a BK.  Because the debt holders would get stock in the restructured company, and the debt would pretty much go away.  The stockholders would loose all are most of their investment, the debt holders would get stock, and the cruise line would get a clean balance sheet.

 

The key element is convincing the debt holders that the company has a plan to return to profitability after the restructuring  and thus make the stock at least as valuable as the debts that would be replaced.  

 

So the potential for one are more lines getting sold would be 1. They sell one to raise money to avoid BK, or 2. They are right sizing as part of a restructuring to make the restructured company as profitable/valuable as possible.  Option one also might have a rightsizing component if they feel the market has shrunk.

[BermudaBound2014]

19 minutes ago, ldtr said:

No, while they might sell some brands to avoid a BK, they would not need to do so if they did a BK.  

 Who suggested otherwise? Lol

 

 

[AFNavigator]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

No doubt testing is an obstacle.

mandatory vaccine is also an obstacle

possible quarantine is a big obstacle for many

mandatory mask is an obstacle for some

public perception of cruises as a Petri dish is an obstacle

The current state of the airline travel  is an obstacle 

Of these factors, I suspect the "petri dish" perception is the greatest obstacle and is one that may take years to fully overcome.  The press and the CDC really pounded that fear into the public's head.  Even now, with sailing having resumed for nearly a year, I get surprised responses when I talk about going on a cruise.  Some didn't even know cruises are running again.  Others are amazed that I'm OK with going on a "petri dish" cruise.  I am just dumbfounded when I hear people talk like that yet those same people are fine with traveling to packed theme parks in Orlando.  Changing the "petri dish" perception is critical to getting the broader public to think about cruising again.

 

All that said, HAL needs to do a better job advertising itself.  When I talk about cruising, people ask if I'm going on Carnival, Royal Caribbean, or Princess, maybe Celebrity or NCL.  I never get asked, Holland America?

[Mary229]

12 hours ago, rodndonna said:

 

 

I agree with you both, HAL has to be a niche (do we need another mass market option?) BUT, as much as the older demo have the money and travel, they (we?) don;'t spend on the boat the way the younger people do (excursions, drinks, photos, shops, spas) etc. When you are young and it is a once a year family holiday, you spend. When you are old, retired, and taking many holidays a year, you pull in the reins...

 

I think spending varies as much as anything else.  It is a personal habit not necessarily dictated by age.  As a business owner I have seen people very cautious the first year or two of retirement but resume or pick up their leisure spending once comfortable with their new status.  Then there are people like DH and myself who were affectionately known among our friends as “the big cheaps”. We weren’t cheap but we were frugal and we had designs for our nest egg - travel.  Now that we are in our late 60s we are spending money like a teenager with his first paycheck.  Our budgeting habits only kick in when we question whether we really want something, often we just don’t spend because we aren’t interested.    Before a cruise I pay the credit cards down to zero and money is no object - if it interests us.

[MISTER 67]

12 hours ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

I agree with you 200%. People do not want hassle to vacation and cruise. Sometimes it is not worth it, especially if it is an add cost to go get everyone tested. I think the demand will increase drastically once they lift the testing. 

But I am still a believe that HAL needs to refresh their product offerings, it is old and stale. Too many others are offering a more upscale experience that somehow HAL got stuck back in 1999.

I disagree, no line has Music Walk which now on the newer ship has 4 different venues to listen to music, Lincoln Center, BB Kings, Billboard Onboard and Rolling Stone Rock Room. All they need to do is utilize the Main showroom a bit more and you can't ask for more.

HAL cruisers aren't looking for rock climbing walls and water slides. 

Dining is fine with the MDR, Tamirind, the Pinnacle Grill and Caneletto plus you have the NY Deli and Pizza and Dive In.

Besides all that, HAL probably still has the best service and cleanest ships among the Mainstream cruise lines.

[SargassoPirate]

13 hours ago, Tampa Girl said:

 Heaven forbid!  There are enough other cruise lines that can offer that, IMHO, terrifying picture.  Babies in strollers clogging up the promenade deck???

 

What about scooters, wheelchairs, and walkers clogging up the corridors on HAL?