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Carnival stock sinks toward a 30-year low as losses and revenue misses keep piling up


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47 minutes ago, sandancer said:

We are taking the risk. We have one Princess and two P&O cruises booked and are considering another Cunard. We will get £150 obc for each so it’s a risk we are willing to take. 

You will get $250 for the Princess and Cunard cruises (assuming 14 day cruises) so even more of a no brainer !

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As an ongoing concern, Carnival is clearly in rough waters.

The bottoming out of the company's market value may have opened up opportunities for a takeover, or the shedding of some of their brands. Time will tell.

On an operational note, the company's ability to attract favorable terms for financing will most certainly be affected. This may cause some concern for their stake-holders, like suppliers for example. Then, there's all that debt service.

At $7/share, the company is looking quite top-heavy. Look out below!

The CEO commented that the line will have to pare down the discounting - with a recession looming, this may be quite difficult, especially competitively against stronger firms (to be fair, all cruise stocks are tanking right now). The trick will be not alienating their customer base with cutbacks, while maintaining the rising future cruise deposits, and not losing suppliers that may be integral to the brand.

A lot of sleepless nights ahead for the Front Office crowd.

 

 

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On 9/30/2022 at 7:25 PM, sandancer said:

We cruise on 5th November with Princess. If we buy now what are the chances of being able to claim obc for that cruise?

I bought Princess shares in April 22 for a September 22 cruise and sent off my request for the extra OBC a few days after the purchase. This was rejected as I had to wait 3 months 🤷‍♂️ 
I appealed the decision and was very sternly told again that 3 months was the rule. Strange because I read of others getting it straightaway 🤔

I reapplied in August and it was sorted very quickly. 

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On 9/30/2022 at 7:25 PM, sandancer said:

We cruise on 5th November with Princess. If we buy now what are the chances of being able to claim obc for that cruise?

I bought Princess shares in April 22 for a September 22 cruise and sent off my request for the extra OBC a few days after the purchase. This was rejected as I had to wait 3 months 🤷‍♂️ 
I appealed the decision and was very sternly told again that 3 months was the rule. Strange because I read of others getting it straightaway 🤔

I reapplied in August and it was sorted very quickly. 

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On 9/30/2022 at 7:25 PM, sandancer said:

We cruise on 5th November with Princess. If we buy now what are the chances of being able to claim obc for that cruise?

I bought Princess shares in April 22 for a September 22 cruise and sent off my request for the extra OBC a few days after the purchase. This was rejected as I had to wait 3 months 🤷‍♂️ 
I appealed the decision and was very sternly told again that 3 months was the rule. Strange because I read of others getting it straightaway 🤔

I reapplied in August and it was sorted very quickly. 

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On 9/30/2022 at 7:25 PM, sandancer said:

We cruise on 5th November with Princess. If we buy now what are the chances of being able to claim obc for that cruise?

I bought Princess shares in April 22 for a September 22 cruise and sent off my request for the extra OBC a few days after the purchase. This was rejected as I had to wait 3 months 🤷‍♂️ 
I appealed the decision and was very sternly told again that 3 months was the rule. Strange because I read of others getting it straightaway 🤔

I reapplied in August and it was sorted very quickly. 

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On 9/30/2022 at 1:31 PM, CruisingFromLA said:

 

You just need to submit a statement showing that you own the stock. So if you buy today, and get the September statement with it listed you will be able to request for the OBC through princess via email. The last shareholder request I sent to Princess took 2 days to post.

 

Don't need to wait for an end-of-month statement.

 

Just submit a copy of the purchase confirmation.

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On 9/30/2022 at 8:09 PM, PescadoAmarillo said:

You’re right. I consider large deposits and cruises paid in full more than 90 days prior to sailing to be a greater risk. At least CCL losses can be netted against other capital gains (if there are any this year). Unused FCCs for cancelled cruises are pretty much worthless. 

 

But if you do not have any capital gains, the losses up to $1500 ($3000 for a joint return) can be deducted from ordinary income.

 

And if your loss exceeds the $1500/$3000 amount, it can be used to offset income in future years.

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4 hours ago, caribill said:

 

But if you do not have any capital gains, the losses up to $1500 ($3000 for a joint return) can be deducted from ordinary income.

 

And if your loss exceeds the $1500/$3000 amount, it can be used to offset income in future years.

Well then, purchase the stock with abandon! 

 

Unfortunately, I am well aware of capital loss carry forwards.😆  And there’s the whole short-term vs. long term thing too. But, really, the lower the stock price goes, the less downside there is to owning it. However, placing large deposits on CCL cruises far into the future is another matter.

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23 minutes ago, PescadoAmarillo said:

Well then, purchase the stock with abandon! 

 

Unfortunately, I am well aware of capital loss carry forwards.😆  And there’s the whole short-term vs. long term thing too. But, really, the lower the stock price goes, the less downside there is to owning it. However, placing large deposits on CCL cruises far into the future is another matter.

Agreed.  For that reason, I am seriously considering cancelling my world cruise 2024 to get my deposit back.

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8 hours ago, NavyCruiser said:

So I bought 100 gallon of gas, for $100 OBC for every cruise hereafter...

 

Me too.  I snatched up 100 shares this Friday at $ 7 per gallon for my Oct 8 cruise.

 

Not sure if they'll grant me the $ 100 OBC since this is within a week of sailing, but we shall see.

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I have to agree that making large deposits to any CCL line involves some risk of becoming a very low priority creditor in the event of a BK.  But there is a possibility that any bankruptcy would be a (more or less) seamless event for the consumer.  Cruise lines have huge money making potential, but large and perhaps unsustainable debt.

 

Recall the General Motors bankruptcy which didn’t really affect the consumer. Warrantees continue to be honored. Of course one has to admit there was a great deal of government money involved in making that happen.

 

Still, given the underlying money making potential of cruise lines, and they need to maintain the customer base and goodwill, a bankruptcy court might structure of the bankruptcy in a way which honored existing deposits.

 

Which raises another question. Which country would conduct the bankruptcy proceeding?

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35 minutes ago, LawDog61 said:

Recall the General Motors bankruptcy which didn’t really affect the consumer. Warrantees continue to be honored. Of course one has to admit there was a great deal of government money involved in making that happen.

 

 

Closer to the cruise line situation are the major USA airlines that went through bankruptcies including United, AA, and Delta.

 

Stockholders lost their investments, but no passenger lost any money for tickets they had paid for.

 

The major cruise corporations (CCL, RCL, NCL) if having a bankruptcy would have the same outcome with customer $$$ safe.

 

(Of course minor USA airlines did abruptly go out of business leaving their customers stranded, just like some smaller cruise companies have done such as Crystal.)

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2 hours ago, caribill said:

The major cruise corporations (CCL, RCL, NCL) if having a bankruptcy would have the same outcome with customer $$$ safe.

Maybe - maybe not.  Crystal requires large and early deposits.  When they went belly up there were many who lost tens or thousands of dollars.  Take a look at the Crystal board for first hand reports.  I agree that it's often the case that customers are kept whole, but there are always exceptions.  I have my first cruise on Regent Seven Seas (NCLH) booked for the end of 2023 and I will have to reassess the risk when final payment comes due.  It certainly isn't zero.

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