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the chances of a cruise ship sinking


ontheweb
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6 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Cruise ship officer shares risk of a cruise ship sinking

 

Bottom line, it's not going to happen, but pay attention to the muster drill.

They always say regulations have changed since the last time. Someday another ship will sink. The odds are low but is going to happen That billionaires unsinkable super yacht that recently sunk they are still trying to figure out the reason. I agree pay attention to the muster drill but those super mega ships with almost 10,000 passengers and crew onboard— luckily to date the evacuation of those has only been simulated. 

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I used to work for a very large British shipping company that had, at the time, 100+ ships, all oil tankers.

At that time the only ship that had sunk, since WW2, was as a result of a massive explosion. 

Then there was one that had mechanical failure which did sink.

As the man said, chances are slim but excreta occurs.

Millions of miles trading over 30 years.

 

It was a wee bit bouncy in the lifeboat 😁

 

 

Br Ambassador 04 Aerial Photograph no text.jpg

Screenshot_20220930_154127_Samsung Internet.jpg

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2 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

They always say regulations have changed since the last time.

Regardless of whether the regulations have changed, the Concordia is an outlier in several ways.  She was a "two compartment ship" (as are all cruise ships, meaning that you can completely flood two adjacent watertight compartments and the ship will stay afloat), but breached 4-5 adjacent compartments, which is really something naval architects could not fathom would happen.  Also, the sole reason the Concordia rolled over was because she grounded a second time, and the free surface of the water inside the ship used the point of grounding as a fulcrum to roll over.  Had she remained offshore, she would have sunk upright, and more slowly than the roll over.

 

The "officer" mentioned in the article is, in my opinion, a hotel supervisor, not a trained mariner.  Though giving good advice regarding the muster drill, the advice of going to a high deck if the ship is going to capsize, is pretty novice.

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4 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

They always say regulations have changed since the last time. Someday another ship will sink. The odds are low but is going to happen That billionaires unsinkable super yacht that recently sunk they are still trying to figure out the reason. I agree pay attention to the muster drill but those super mega ships with almost 10,000 passengers and crew onboard— luckily to date the evacuation of those has only been simulated. 

I guess it that happens, we will see if the new muster drill is effective or not. The idea of getting that many passengers off the ship safely into lifeboats is quite scary.

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3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I guess it that happens, we will see if the new muster drill is effective or not. The idea of getting that many passengers off the ship safely into lifeboats is quite scary.

Especially when people panic and don't follow logical orders or plans. Muster drill could be done daily, and some people would still tend to go off on their own. Well documented in many other disasters.

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The only accurate advice provided is the importance of attending and paying attention at the Muster Drill.

 

Long prior to the Costa Concordia incident, a number of Carnival Brands (P&O, Princess & Cunard) started developing enhanced Bridge Procedures, which were originally known as Bridge Team Command & Control (BTCC). I received a copy of them about 2005/06, as I used them for developing procedures for my own ship. Once finalised, they were implemented on all vessels of those 3 brands.

 

They also employed a British company to provide Human Factors and Risk Assessment training, and commenced simulator training at Almere about 2009. Yes, the training centre was opened well before the Costa Concordia incident.

 

Regulations changed after the Costa Concordia, but as with most accidents, the root cause was human error. Costa, as a brand, had not bought into the enhanced procedures used by the aforementioned Carnival Brands. After the Costa Concordia, all Carnival Brands had to implement the enhanced procedures and the Almere Centre was expanded. Accounting for human factors and risk assessing procedures has a greater benefit to preventing a similar incident than changes to regulations.

 

I concur with the Chief in that the quoted "Officer" is either from the Hotel, or is very junior. With respect to the Bridge Team, every voyage is planned and courses laid down for the entire voyage, prior to departure. They are also approved by the Master.

 

Got a good laugh regarding the comment about heading to higher decks.

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Unfortunately, the muster drills, on most cruise ships, have recently become somewhat of a joke.  At one time, passengers had to muster at their muster stations, learn how to wear a life jacket, meet their boat crew, etc.  Gradually that eroded to just having folks go to an inside public lounge, have a demo on how to don the life jackets, and listen to instructions.

 

However, in the last few years what we are seeing (on many lines) is a requirement to watch a video in one's cabin (or on a phone).  The televisions are programmed so when you first turn them on (in your cabin) you are going to get that safety film.  But many folks do not watch the video and might be unpacking, sitting out on their balcony, etc.  Ships usually also require that you report to your muster lounge where your cruise card is quickly scanned (to prove you showed-up) and then you are free to go.  

 

What does all this mean.  These days most folks simply see the muster procedure as a minor annoyance to be ignored!    Like many things involving safety, the procedures keep getting eroded.  What this means in that a real emergency there will be an incredible burden on the ship's crew/staff to properly direct passengers (some of whom may be i panic mode).  Are the crews up to the task?  We hope so.  But consider on my recent cruise on the new Explora Journey 1, about 80% of the ship's staff was on their first contract and this was their first time at sea.  Sobering.

 

Hank

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It must be remembered that the muster drill is more than for the ship sinking- any large emergency will trigger mustering passengers and crew both to keep folks out of harms way and to account for everyone. This can happen at any time, although it too should be a rare thing.

 

When I was stationed on the USS Eisenhower (crew complement of around 6,500) we had a man go missing from his station and presumed to have gone overboard. One of the first responses was to muster the crew to make sure who the missing sailor was (since no one actually saw him go over). We mustered twice with the same result. They also initiated a full search of the ship- every nook and cranny had to be searched. The missing sailor was found asleep in a Motor Whale Boat on the hangar deck. He went from there, to the bridge for an immediate Captain's Mast/Article 15 and then to the brig to serve out his 3 day confinement on bread and water sentence. 

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10 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Unfortunately, the muster drills, on most cruise ships, have recently become somewhat of a joke.  At one time, passengers had to muster at their muster stations, learn how to wear a life jacket, meet their boat crew, etc.  Gradually that eroded to just having folks go to an inside public lounge, have a demo on how to don the life jackets, and listen to instructions.

 

However, in the last few years what we are seeing (on many lines) is a requirement to watch a video in one's cabin (or on a phone).  The televisions are programmed so when you first turn them on (in your cabin) you are going to get that safety film.  But many folks do not watch the video and might be unpacking, sitting out on their balcony, etc.  Ships usually also require that you report to your muster lounge where your cruise card is quickly scanned (to prove you showed-up) and then you are free to go.  

 

What does all this mean.  These days most folks simply see the muster procedure as a minor annoyance to be ignored!    Like many things involving safety, the procedures keep getting eroded.  What this means in that a real emergency there will be an incredible burden on the ship's crew/staff to properly direct passengers (some of whom may be i panic mode).  Are the crews up to the task?  We hope so.  But consider on my recent cruise on the new Explora Journey 1, about 80% of the ship's staff was on their first contract and this was their first time at sea.  Sobering.

 

Hank

It will take a real emergency with dire results to bring back any muster drill resembling what it once was. Too many passengers see the new muster drill as the only good thing that came out of Covid. 

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I worry more about a fire onboard than a ship sinking.  The muster drill used to be a miserable experience back when you had to assemble outside at the station wearing a lifejacket.  Not so bad in the winter in cooler climates, but it was a very sweaty drill in the summer as you waited for everyone to show up.

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46 minutes ago, Oakman58 said:

I worry more about a fire onboard than a ship sinking.  The muster drill used to be a miserable experience back when you had to assemble outside at the station wearing a lifejacket.  Not so bad in the winter in cooler climates, but it was a very sweaty drill in the summer as you waited for everyone to show up.

A fire is one of the reasons passengers might have to be evacuated. If there is an actual emergency it could happen in miserable conditions. I am definitely in the camp of those who are in favor of going back to drills like those held in the past. 

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2 hours ago, MBP&O2/O said:

Too many passengers feel that they are experts and know more than the crew ... they are the problem people ... especially if it interrupts their drinking time!🙄

There used to be a few threads every year from clueless people bragging about hiding out and skipping the drill. 

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13 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Unfortunately, the muster drills, on most cruise ships, have recently become somewhat of a joke.  At one time, passengers had to muster at their muster stations, learn how to wear a life jacket, meet their boat crew, etc.  Gradually that eroded to just having folks go to an inside public lounge, have a demo on how to don the life jackets, and listen to instructions.

 

However, in the last few years what we are seeing (on many lines) is a requirement to watch a video in one's cabin (or on a phone).  The televisions are programmed so when you first turn them on (in your cabin) you are going to get that safety film.  But many folks do not watch the video and might be unpacking, sitting out on their balcony, etc.  Ships usually also require that you report to your muster lounge where your cruise card is quickly scanned (to prove you showed-up) and then you are free to go.  

 

What does all this mean.  These days most folks simply see the muster procedure as a minor annoyance to be ignored!    Like many things involving safety, the procedures keep getting eroded.  What this means in that a real emergency there will be an incredible burden on the ship's crew/staff to properly direct passengers (some of whom may be i panic mode).  Are the crews up to the task?  We hope so.  But consider on my recent cruise on the new Explora Journey 1, about 80% of the ship's staff was on their first contract and this was their first time at sea.  Sobering.

 

Hank

 

All great points.

 

In addition, another significant issue of the degraded Muster Drills is the loss of training opportunities for the crew in managing the herd. These training experiences cannot be replicated with films, lectures, crew drills, etc.

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2 hours ago, Oakman58 said:

I worry more about a fire onboard than a ship sinking.  The muster drill used to be a miserable experience back when you had to assemble outside at the station wearing a lifejacket.  Not so bad in the winter in cooler climates, but it was a very sweaty drill in the summer as you waited for everyone to show up.

 

Only some cruise lines utilised the Prom Deck Muster Drills.

 

In my almost 40 years at sea, I have always worked on ships with internal "Assembly Stations". These are designated during the initial design and must be protected by Structural Fire Protection, in accordance with a matrix, have acceptable routes to the Survival Craft, and based on area & furnishings, have a maximum capacity.

 

Even my earliest ships that were built in the 1950's had internal "Assembly Stations". I only experienced Prom Deck Musters once and that was our 1 and only RCCL cruise.

 

Personally, as a Master, I would not have worked for a shipping company utilising Prom Deck muster stations, as having to potentially consider the prevailing conditions when determining a need to sound the GES, is an unnecessary complication.

 

Thinking back to the Star Princess fire, when pax spent many hours at the Assembly Stations. Would the Master have sounded the GES as early. If pax were mustered on the Prom Deck, a good percentage would have been below the fire. The 2019 Viking Sky incident would have been extremely dangerous to muster pax on the Prom Deck.

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52 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

 

Even my earliest ships that were built in the 1950's had internal "Assembly Stations". I only experienced Prom Deck Musters once and that was our 1 and only RCCL cruise

Royal Caribbean had those on Vision Class and earlier ships. Have not been on one of those in years but since they were designed that way I would guess they still do on those still in service. All the later RCCL ships have internal assembly stations. 
 

The most miserable muster station I experienced was an internal muster station on NCL Breakaway. It was in the casino which stunk and there were some passengers smoking right up to the start of the muster drill. 

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2 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

Royal Caribbean had those on Vision Class and earlier ships. Have not been on one of those in years but since they were designed that way I would guess they still do on those still in service. All the later RCCL ships have internal assembly stations. 
 

The most miserable muster station I experienced was an internal muster station on NCL Breakaway. It was in the casino which stunk and there were some passengers smoking right up to the start of the muster drill. 

 

Affirmative, it was older tonnage, the Radiance of the Seas, probably about 2003. Reason we booked it was I knew the Captain, as I had previously hired him, before he joined RCCL.

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3 hours ago, cruiseryyc said:

I decided years ago that in the event we had to abandon ship, I would wait and get into the last lifeboat with the crew; no way I wanted to be crowded into a boat with all the screaming dummies who didn't attend the drills.

 

Unfortunately, most of the crew would be in liferafts. If they are Davit Launched, it can be a wild ride down in windy conditions. When I did an exercise for TC, we loaded up a raft to replicate 25 persons and on the way down the wind grabbed it. Not a comfortable ride down to the water.

 

The larger rafts, especially those with MES systems, are a little more spacious than lifeboats, but are way more uncomfortable in a seaway. It was much easier loading liferafts to capacity than lifeboats.

 

When the liferafts are included in an MES, each company has a different system, most of which I have descended at least once. On some of the older ones, you land on the platform, or directly into the raft at a fairly good speed. Most pax would be horrified to jump into a vertical tube and descend 60+ feet (in total darkness).

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22 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

 

Unfortunately, most of the crew would be in liferafts. If they are Davit Launched, it can be a wild ride down in windy conditions. When I did an exercise for TC, we loaded up a raft to replicate 25 persons and on the way down the wind grabbed it. Not a comfortable ride down to the water.

On Oasis class ships as I understand it the crew goes down a chute to enter the life rafts. 

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1 hour ago, Charles4515 said:

On Oasis class ships as I understand it the crew goes down a chute to enter the life rafts. 

 

Affirmative, those ships are fitted with the Viking 2nd generation Marine Evacuation System. This is the only one I haven't descended, as I never bought any Viking LSA products. 

 

The base system will include 2 vertical tubes which enter the middle of the inner raft. An additional raft will inflate and is attached to the inboard raft. As crew/pax descend they are moved to the outer raft, which when full is towed away from the ship. Another raft cannister is dropped, inflated and secured to the inboard raft. Once secured crew/pax are moved to the new raft. Once full, the process is repeated.

 

I have only seen the Viking 1st gen MES when I visited their factory, as the 2nd was still in development. It can be an interesting descent, especially the first time down. Viking indicates a capacity of about 900 persons during a 30 min evacuation, which is more than double the capacity I achieved on 2 separate timed trials with the twin RFD system.

 

Note - this is Viking Lifesaving Equipment based in Denmark, a different company from Viking Cruises or Viking Ferry Line.

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@Heidi13 I just want to say I have always enjoyed your exceptionally informative and educational posts.  You add a certain degree of credibility and accuracy to these boards that is all too often overlooked by many posters in their responses - myself at times included - and I always enjoy learning from your vast experience.  You are one of a select few (and you know the others) who ground all of us with facts, not fiction. Thanks!

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