Enavigo

So does this mean that the Haven area is cancelled? I was hoping that it would be complete by Thanksgiving. Has anyone else heard any updates?

I was on the rerouted Sept 9th cruise that stopped at GSC. Based on how little progress they have made since we were last there a year ago, I'd measure the completion date in years not months!

Everything still looks like just basic concrete shells, almost nothing else started and nothing anywhere near finished.

Enivago - on disembarkation the Haven-sign person at the end of the hallway to the right that goes around the luggage area sent us straight into the Customs line. Of course we got off on the later side so there wasn’t much of a line and we only waited a max of 5 minutes.

 

On past cruises when the Customs lines were looooong we’ve been routed straight to the front of the Customs lines.

Yeah, it is weird, I just wonder if the people downstairs just aren't on the same page? One time they told us the same thing, we ignored them and just went down the middle like we have in the past. When we got the attendant at the customs counters we told her that the other agent wanted us to go in the general line and she just looked at us and rolled her eyes and said something like it's not her job to correct other workers. She did assure us we used the right line for Haven.

Thanks for such a great review! Really enjoyed all of the details. Quick question: Was it easy to find the Haven lines for disembarkation? Some people have said that they had trouble finding the Haven lines once off the ship and end up waiting with GenPop, as you say.:)

I was on the same cruise also in the Haven and have travelled on the Haven out of NY many times. I would say that the Haven line is obvious until you get into the terminal. As the Concierge will tell you, once you exit the ship, stay to the right and make your way to the terminal (you will see GenPop lined up against the all on your left up again the building). At some point you will see a Haven sign, just show your card and they will let you through and hold the line.

Looks like the OP then joined the GenPop line in customs, sadly. You do NOT have to do that it you are Haven (although they do not make that obvious). You will see the customs line to your right. Simply walk right down the center of the room (between the luggage and the general customs line). Show the attendant the Haven card and they will let you through and send you to the next customs attendant. Once you pass through customs your Haven experience is over.

As I mentioned, we have travelled out of NY in the Haven many times, and the longest it has taken us from the Haven lounge to curb side/car is 10 minutes. Really one of the best Haven benefits. Have a great cruise!

And I'll add I hope the mods close this thread like they did the previous one. It is time to let this go.

Weird, I received our online survey 24 hrs after the cruise. Filled it out a few days later.

Wow arguing about obvisiouly two different opinions of NCL. Did any of you read my post of not having 911 available for a very sick 73 year old on the ship? Does that not concern you. Probably not if it did not happen to you. Let me tell you quite scary, and NCL will never be an option for me again. Now that is the service we did not get.

I do not think people are forgetting about your experience, it is just that there is not much positive we can add other than I'm sorry you went through that. If that had happened to me or my loved ones, in any situation cruise or otherwise, I probably would take my business elsewhere just like you.

You left out the word "my". The initial comment was about MY untrained eye. Thank you for the advice. Rest assured my adviser and I have had and continue to have extensive discussions about my goals and strategies, including my goal for buying NCL for which we developed a strategy.

 

Look, my point was simply filling ships is not an indicator of a good business as people on these boards have stated. I acknowledge that neither stock price nor anyone's buy/sell recommendation alone is a good indicator either. Hell, there are entire schools dedicated to teaching Business, we sure aren't going to define whether NCL is a running good business here.

Having had the benefit of a few hours sleep and re-reading your post, I was too harsh in my response to your post. I know you are not looking for it, but, for what it's worth, I offer my apologies.

That's completely ridiculous and if you know anything about stocks, you know that. You're literally explaining what would be considered a growth stock. A company that is actively investing and might be shedding some cash because of that but is expected to grow rapidly from that investment. If investors believed NCL's premise and potential growth, the stock would go up and the market cap would go up. What are you arguing? That a company can't make an investment in their future and have their stock go up? Absolute insanity. That's almost every tech company you're describing. You're just making stuff up because investors clearly didn't like and see the potential in the debt NCL took on (or whatever investments they made), or are weary of how successful their endeavors will be.

Ummm, you know that "growth stocks" are securities whose SHARE PRICE is expected to grow at a significantly above-average rate. Net worth does not always move consistent with stock price (they do not correlate in the manner you suggest). For example, a company's net worth can go down while it's share price increases . . . like, oh I don't know . . . any time a company conducts are significant share buyback (net worth = assets - liabilities ... the calculation excludes shareholder equity).

I'm really done now. Had I realized you joined this month apparently only to complain about NCL I would have simply ignored you. I try to help out people here when I can (because I have received so much great information from so many great contributors on here), but lesson learned. Don't feed the trolls . . . they have insatiable appetites!

Yes, but when a company is worth less than they were 3 years ago, you generally accept that things haven't gone great for them and bad decisions/execution took place in the companies semi-recent past. And being "not far from" your market cap from 3 years ago isn't any kind of achievement.

100% wrong. It CAN be an indicator that something is gone, but not when a company makes a significant reinvestment in their business (in the form of secured debt) in order to capture larger market share in the future. You are cherry picking NCLH's growth cycle.

I never said stock price is a barometer for customer service. I merely said that it was an indicator of how strong the business has been in the past/is now, and a company who has a market cap that's lower now than it was 3 years ago hasn't made good business decisions along the way. You proved my point correct by pointing out their China misstep. It seems reasonable to believe they've made more than a single mistake in the history of their company that's put them in this position. Obviously I can't prove it's because of poor customer service, because I'd need additional numbers like marketing spend and retention rates relative to other cruise lines in order to calculate that.

 

The point is simple: you, and anyone else, has no grounds to argue that questioning NCL's business practices and customer service is a flawed premise just because they fill ships. Simple put, they are worth less money now than they were 3 years ago and there's various reasons for that, and almost all of them will boil down to bad business decisions, whether it be China like you described or a possible retention/high marketing cost problem. More than likely there are multiple factors. But there's literally nothing to suggest it's unfair to question their business practices, and it's clear numerous things have gone wrong for them and other cruise lines have grown their businesses better.

*pounds head against the wall*

What's your point? It's still not even at its all-time high and has been working its way back there (and still isn't there) for 3 years. Does a stock trading below it's all-time high which was about 3 years ago shout high-growth, well-executed business to you? In 2015 the company was worth almost $15 billion. It's now worth less than $13 billion. Again, is that the indicator of a company that's done everything correctly and who's piss poor customer service shouldn't be called out because they are "filling ships"?

Your lack of financial literacy is showing. You cannot simply cherry pick time periods without a complete understanding of what the company was doing throughout the time period you select. You seem to do this quite a bit in an attempt to justify your arguments -- it's overly simplistic. You seem drawn to the "all-time highs," which shows you have little understanding of the concept of reinvestment.

Go back to 2013, NCLH net worth is almost 300% higher today than it was then (still means nothing to me, but whatever). Your time period is misleading because a simple review of their annual reports would show you why the net worth dropped in 2016; they took out a large amount of debt to finance their growth (it's right there in black and white). That debt is a direct hit to their net worth, but it is not because they are FAILING it is because they are GROWING. As my Dad always said . . . you have to spend a buck to make a buck.

And before you say look at CCL and RCL, don't. As for the product they offer it is a fair comparison, but NCLH is the younger sister of those two, just look at the market cap differences! NCLH has to grow at a rate greater than either CCL or RCL simply to catch up (again, why most analysts think NCLH is a great value pick while CCL and RCL are more suited to growth investors).

Hmmm, interesting. You said you were done with the thread yet felt the need to refute the single statement which was “I was told NCL stock was a bad buy.” I wonder why that might be. Combined with your NCL-can-do-no-wrong attitude, I think I see what’s going on here. How many shares of NCL do you own?

 

You also seemed to not address the original point, which was “NCL must be running a good business because they fill lots of ships, so everything they are doing is perfect including their customer service.” My argument against that was simple - NCL’s stock price is lower now than it was 3 years ago. Is that the trend of a company that’s executed perfectly and has no room for improvement? I’m sure investors who bought the stock 3-4 years ago and purchased a dud to-date wouldn’t think they are executing perfectly.

I own 0 shares of NCLH, or any individual securities for that matter. Pre-clearance is basically impossible at my firm as one of our funds is most certainly trading that day (or has within the past 7 days or expects to within the next 7). My accounts are mutual fund-only accounts. And it's not a "NCL can do no wrong attitude" I have, it's a more realistic understanding of rational business behavior and I understand the terms and conditions of what I buy.

As for your continued reliance on stock price as some sort of barometer for customer service or any emotional variable, all I can say is that is severely misguided. Stock price is about fundamentals ... nothing else. I too can cherry pick arbitrary time periods to evaluate stock price in an attempt to bootstrap my argument. For example, CCL is down $4 per share over the past 1-year period, while both NCLH and RCL are up. NCLH and RCL currently have much higher momentum scores than CCL. CCL's issues have nothing to do with service levels or perceived customer harms, it relates to unique corporate charges they were required to take in 2017.

Finally, your 3-year period is also misleading. Yes, NCLH is down over that period, but that had absolutely nothing to do customer service concerns on NCL or some other systemic customer service failure. It fell because of a risky strategic decision. The price fell 40% in 2016 and is still recovering for one large reason . .. China. NCL took a bigger gamble than its competitors. It went more aggressively into China (including designing the Joy exclusively for China). When demand in China fell and the government considered taking over the cruising industry entirely, ALL cruise line stocks took a hit, but NCLH much more so than the others because of their aggressive play into China. NCLH has said on the record that was a mistake and it is one they are still paying for.

Doubtful they were using any metric other than their love of NCL.

I have looked, and to my untrained eye, NCL doesn't look good, especially when you compare to other cruise lines. More importantly, when I asked my financial adviser to buy 100 shares of NCL so I could get the on-board credit, he advised very strongly against investing in NCL - none of their research indicated it was a company to invest in.

I know I said I was done with this thread, but statements like this warrant a response. The key to your response is "untrained eye." And if your financial adviser simply said "don't buy" without asking further questions about your goals/strategy, you should consider firing him/her. Are you a growth investor? A GARP investor? A value investor? Are you looking for a tex efficient portfolio? These are HUGE facts that one needs to consider. I ask because I work at one of the nation's largest asset managers and, in my role, I am fortunate enough to sit in on certain Board committee meetings where PMs discuss their funds, holdings, and philosophy on a annual basis with the Trustees (and I have learned a ton). As you would imagine, a few of these funds have leisure exposure. NCLH is in almost all our value strategies. CCL and RCL are in certain of our growth portfolios (sometimes RCL makes it into a value portfolio, but never CCL).

It is not hard to see why. In terms of financial ratios and overall corporate health CCL is currently far better off than either RCL or NCLH (their debt to equity ratio is amazingly low). RCL and NCLH are considered value plays because their investments in their products far outpaces CCL (and is why their debt to equity ratios are far higher). CCL is a solid growth stock, but RCL and NCLH are considered by many analysts to be solid value picks.

The cruise line that is by far the worst positioned for the future is MSC. Although they are a private company, they do make available financial statements annually and their debt to equity ratio is astronomical. Like 300-400% higher than all major cruise lines. They are making a big gamble that their extensive investment in an effort to expand to North America will pay off. If the economy stays solid for the next 5-8 years I think they should do very well, but if the economy turns, their debt leverage is crushing.

All this is just to say, no stock is a buy, hold or a sell simply based on its price. Further, the price of a stock has absolutely zero to do with perceived customer service standards (prices are set in the market based on underlying fundamentals). Also, any investment adviser worth his or her salt will tell you the role that the security would play in your portfolio is as important as anything. Hell, in some of our managed accounts we purposely buy stocks we think will decrease in value so we can harvest the losses for tax purposes to offset unrealized gains in other positions in the portfolio.

Sorry that those of us in steerage didn't have access to the same info you did, so we were kind of in the dark. I'm not sure how that info excuses them making the announcement 5 minutes after we were supposed to be on our way to Nassau. If anything, it makes it worse because it seems as if they likely knew long before they made the announcement that there was no way we could go to Nassau.

 

Not everyone measures the enjoyment of a cruise in the same way, or takes as many cruises. We met a couple from upstate NY a day or two into the cruise who's only real vacations were a single cruise every few years. They were looking forward going to Bermuda. When they found out we weren't going to Bermuda, they were a little upset because they had already taken the Bahamas cruise a few years before and were excited to do something new. They were really looking forward to finally getting to Atlantis and had planned a bunch of stuff around that. Too bad they weren't privileged enough to have access to that information that we probably wouldn't make it there, because maybe they wouldn't have gotten their hopes up and spent all of that time planning. I feel bad for people who had that experience.

 

I also feel bad for a woman in one of our excursions who told us that someone in her party had planned for a wedding in Bermuda, and when that fell through, quickly made plans for Nassau. I can only imagine how they felt when they had that announcement come through the loud speaker. I wonder how much money/time they could have saved knowing there was a good change we weren't going to make it to Nassau. And I can only imagine how they felt after they found out they'd receive 0 compensation for their perils.

 

But hey, let's look on the bright side - at least the Haven courtyard had the pool roof open 6/7 days!

My God, there is always someone who goes there. I was simply relaying my experiences on this cruise just like everyone else. My experience is no less valid because my cabin was in a different part of the ship. As for the wedding, sure that is unfortunate and no one would wish that on anyone, but NCL did not sell it as a wedding cruise and they did decide to wed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean in the middle of hurricane season. That couple should have considered making lemonade out lemons like the other couple on the cruise who got married on the ship on Sunday afternoon in NYC (they also had to cancel their Bermuda wedding). I got married in the middle of a blizzard and some family and friends couldn't make it in . . . I did not demand compensation from any of our ancillary vendors.

As for the Atlantis visit, please. They were really looking forward to a excursion that was even a possibility until 5 days earlier? That they had reserved for what, all of 3-4 days?

I'm done with this thread and perhaps the NCL Board for a while. The attacks on here seem to be escalating at an alarming rate.

We were also on this cruise and I have to say, of my 6 NCL cruises, this one was by far the best. The weather was accommodating, the seas were as calm as I have ever seen them (save for Sunday night out of NY), the service was first rate and the meals were great. 6 of the 7 days the Haven courtyard roof was open (never happened at sea for us on the Breakaway) and we never waited for anything, anywhere on the ship. Also, seemed like the people on this cruise were far more outgoing and engaging than our past cruises. I enjoyed the Haven on the Escape far more than on the Breakaway.

Now, did we go to Bermuda? No. Did we get off the ship at all? No. Do we feel cheated in any way, shape or form? No. We had an amazing, relaxing time and we got to do more on the ship than we otherwise would have. I also find it interesting that people are attaching nefarious intentions to the timing of the Nassau cancellation announcement. We had dinner with the captain and the hotel director early in the week. They said the slowing in Florence's forward momentum was causing unexpected navigational warnings to pop up for later in the week. What they told us was they were still going to try to hold to the itinerary, but if warnings held they would not be able to go to both locations. They said that they would head to GSC and if the seas were too rough for tendering they would race on to Nassau and do a 1-10pm stop there. But if we stopped at GSC and the warnings held we would need to cancel Nassau to go around the storm. The situation was far more dynamic then some people here seem to think.

All said, we had a great time and would gladly do a cruise like this again. That said, we've decided to make the switch to a luxury line and are trying a 14-night caribbean on Seabourn in 2020. I suspect we will be back to NCL for our shorter cruises at some point in the future because of how great a time we had on this cruise.

I've been watching tropical storms and cruise line behavior for years. They often do not tell the whole story. It is regrettable they did not wait longer as Bermuda is looking safe as a port now. I agree that the return path for Escape is a provlem now. Also waves ahead may ruin GSC as a tender port. Escape needs to be cruising off SC Wednesday... That's not going to work. I expect more changes to the itinerary to come.

 

 

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By Wednesday the Escape will be 550 nm south of SC. Bermuda is not (and will not) be a safer port for at least the next 7 days as it will remain off the the northeast of Florence. Right now the storm is still 450nm southeast of Bermuda and they are experiencing significant swells with sea models expecting 30+ft seas wed-fri. Bermuda is simply not an option at all for the next week.

I agree it is possible we can't tender at GSC, but I still think they made the right choice.

Looks like some people have bailed, I see some Haven Cabins and mini suites are not available

1 Haven forward facing available on 13. Rest is showing sold out. Someone is going to have their bid accepted!

There is no basis to trust the cruise lines! They have a long history of making the wrong decisions.

Fair enough, but I'll still go with the National Hurricane Center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration over the uneducated opinions of people on this board. If we were on a Fri-Fri cruise I would think maybe Canada would be better, but for next week coming back to NY from the north would put us on the north side of the storm (if it curves back out to sea or goes up the coast).

I just checked the 11 am NOAA models and it still shows nothing more than 5-10ft for atlantic seaboard Mon and FL and Bahamas Tues-Thurs. Also, being on the backside of a hurricane heading back is NOT the same as trailing a winter storm. Hurricane damage fans outward and forward primarily. Winter storms are a whole different animal.

According to the news, Florence weaken to a tropical storm and might straighten again. this is the current path:

 

 

Looks like it is a really really bad idea to re-route the ships down south to the bahamas where they are sailing into the storm. Bermuda now appears to be safest option to avoid the storms.

 

The ride back to NY is going to be rough and rocky, expect the worse.

There are so many wrong things about your post it is just impossible to know where to start. NCL clearly made the best choice they could. Bermuda is already experiencing rough surf and swells that are expected to sustain through next Thursday because they are on the wrong side of the storm (you never want to be on the north east side). We will be well past the storm and on it's southwest side by the time it comes anywhere near the east coast.

Also, if you really look at the NHC chart you can see how hurricane winds do not proliferate spherically. You see in the chart how they bulge out to the east/northeast/north? Notice how the wind wall abruptly terminates on the west/southwest side of the storm? That's not an error in the chart, that is just plain old science. And even if you think NCL made a mistake, every other cruise scheduled to depart the east coast to Bermuda this week is rerouted and most are heading to the Bahamas (noticeably excluding the Dawn, but for that cruise Fri-Fri that also seems like the right decision). I'll trust the NHC, NOAA and the cruise lines over anyone posting their opinion on this board.

Now, will this cruise be perfect conditions? No, of course not, but "expect the worst"? Please. Stop the fear mongering, people are under enough stress already without needing to confront opinions that lack a factual basis.

Enavigo you're sailing on Escape the 9th? Whats your room # so I can speak to you if your theory goes to hell in a handbasket? Ill raid your mini bar. lol like I said if it were just me and my wife Id gamble but Im thinking of my children now. I feel for those that would lose 100% of their money but I live on LI and we have the insurance and can just reschedule the trip for another time at a small cost.

Prayers....

We're in the Haven in a DOS (so if the ship is rocking we'll feel it the worst! Ha

That said, I completely understand that the dynamics change with children and you have to do what you think is in their best interest. Living so close to the port and having the insurance certainly eliminates most of the variables for you. We did sail once with my nephews in choppy seas on the Disney Dream when they were 6 and 4. When the boat started rocking we told them both "weeee, isn't this fun? Just like a never-ending ride!" The 4 year old loved it, but the 6 year old just looked at me with those "who are you trying to fool" eyes.

Well, I'd say you were smarter than us re: the insurance for this time of year. After all of our cruises, we should have known better to not get the insurance. We've been in NY for 3 days and if we'd had the insurance we'd have already bailed and headed back to NH.

 

Re: your comments, it looks like it just isn't going to be a smooth ride. Also, smooth is subjective as some are great and no problem with it (my wife and I included), but many others are not. Also, your consideration of the negative experience for the kids is, in our opinion, really appropriate (the same as if you were taking elderly relatives; not ideal conditions on the ship just walking around).

 

Again, no interested in what others might say re: 'we should have known better or 'with the new ships it's not that rough seas planned. Just staying focused on what is ahead.

 

Although from NH, at this point it would appear safer to re-route to NE and Canada; although the weather will certainly not be cruising ideal.

 

We would PREFER THE CRUISE LINES CANCEL THE CRUISES LEAVING THE NORTH EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.

 

Hope to be wrong.

 

Good luck with whatever you decide.

What have you been looking at that shows it will not be a smooth ride? I get that you want the cruise cancelled (you've been saying that for days now), but I have not seen any ocean models that show this will be a rough ride. At patches, sure (but it is like that on any cruise) but not the whole trip. I'll trust the NOAA models that put the wave heights at 5-10ft Mon-Thurs.

Also, some people seem to be forgetting that, at present, Florence is a TS not a hurricane and, although it is expected to regain strength Sun/Monday it will not regain major hurricane strength until Wed at the earliest and by that point we will be long past her. Those are important facts that you don't see on the warning cone maps, but they have a HUGE impact on wave height and expansion.

Also, as of 8 am her forward momentum has slowed further (7mph), so even if she picks up speed now (still not predicted) there is no way she would close the gap and intensify rapidly enough to change the wave forecast. Again, it most certainly could get a little dicy on Sat night on the way back into NY (predicted to be about 20ft as a result of Florence remnants), but I'll take those 2 evenings.

Hell our first cruise to Bermuda in September 2015 there was no hurricanes at all but the seas were still 25-30ft from some low pressure systems jostling around. This is all just a long way of saying NOAA thinks your wrong and I'm going to go with them. If you do end up cruising with us this weekend I really hope you can relax and I hope the weather cooperates and you have a nice vacation.

My wife and I with our 10 and 7 year old are booked on this cruise. Ive been urging my wife to cancel due to the obvious reasons. I feel the seas no matter our port are going to be rough to say the least the whole time. We have the insurance and were told we can reschedule although there would be a 25% penalty. Im fine with that because I do not want my children to be scared in anyway and seeing some videos of cruise ships in storms has made my decision easy. My wife says "storms are unpredictable so it could be nice"

I love her but at times shes stubborn.

If we were alone Id say lets roll the dice but if my children had anything less than a dream vacation it would devestate me.

Any words of advice or encouragement? Thanks all.

C U @ sea????

Apprehension is understandable, but if it helps you or your wife, you should look at the NOAA ocean wave models before you make a decision. Because of the storm in NY tomorrow it looks like the first few hours tomorrow may have 15-20ft seas (not related to Florence), but after that it is literally forecast to be 5-10ft for the rest of the week until we return next sat night/sun morning.

Although hurricane paths/direction are very difficult to predict (as we are all seeing), their wind and wave fields are not and being well off the southwest quadrant puts us in the best position possible. As a mariner once put it to me, hurricanes and winter storms are mirror images, for hurricanes, you never know where they are going to go, but the wind and waves they generate are and they move in a consistent direction (fanning 180 degrees forward). Winter storms, on the other hand, have predictable paths but very unpredictable wind and wave fields are the tend to churn the seas in all directions as they move.

I am anticipating perhaps some above normal movement tomorrow night and sat night, but that's it . . . and I know we will feel it the worst as our cabin is as high and as forward as you can go!

And now it looks like sailing down the coast isn't going to be fun either. Looks like North would be our best (and safest) bet. Another reason why we are so frustrated with NCL -- they offered us no options or choice and we feel like they are forcing us to take what might be a very uncomfortable and possibly dangerous trip.

I'm not quite sure where you are getting your information, but have you looked at the NHC and NOAA sites? On Monday when we are sailing down the coast, Florence will be almost 2000nm away (hell, it will still be 1000nm away from Bermuda!). Seas for the journey south are anticipated on the NOAA site to be 10-15ft. I think NCL has decided the beat the storm down the coast, cruise while it makes landfall (curves out to sea) and then perhaps take a more open sea approach home.

Now, if the storm continues to track more west rather than west-northwest maybe they would consider switching back (but, if they don't change the Dawn back I would not get excited for us). One thing about that, however, is that no matter where she goes, seas in and around Bermuda are expected to be 30+ ft starting Sun morning. I'm guessing that factored into NCL's decision.

Port Canaveral is a joke. I've walked through empty parking lots that have more character. When we were in Nassau in October 2016, when the Breakaway diverted from heading to Bermuda, there were lots of stray dogs, trash was everywhere and almost nothing was open. It was better last year when we stopped by while on the MSC Divina but it was still pretty run down versus what it was like twenty years ago.

 

Again, I'm not blaming them for changing the itinerary. I understood why they did it in 2016 and why they're doing it now. I'm upset about paying for a porterhouse steak and getting ground round instead without any adjustment to the price or an opportunity to get a discounted porterhouse later.

But what if when you bought the porterhouse the restaurant told you they would make their best good faith effort to deliver you a porterhouse, but you may end up with some other form of steak, including ground round and you would not be entitled to any compensatory treatment? That's really a more apt comparison here.

Thats the "Normal" NCL FL Bahamas run. I thought the two sea days on the front end was strange

Agreed. That's why I paused a little bit when I got the first email this afternoon. I thought moving fast through the carolinas made the most sense so was confused why there were 2 seas days to get there. Was hypothesizing maybe there was no space in port on Tuesday or some other logistical issue.