JMAE

Just returned from the Pride on 5/5, I met the Maitre'd once and don't recall his name, but it wasn't Ken.  I remember reading another post that indicated Ken started his vacation in Feb. or March and was returning to the Pride with his next contact, but don't remember the timeframe.  Ken is the greatest! 

Just off the Pride on 5/5/24 and had no problems with cooling.  Both the stateroom and public areas were kept cool.  We had great weather, and the only hot spots were on the decks in the sun!   

Ship - Carnival Pride

Deck - 6 

Stateroom # - 6247

Stateroom Category – 8D

Starboard or Port Side - Starboard

Quiet Stateroom? (With comments on problems) – Yes

Was stateroom a connecting stateroom? - No

Balcony View - Great view

Balcony Size? Normal or oversized for class? - Normal

Was wind a problem? - No

If an aft cabin, was soot a problem? - N/A

Any specific problems with this cabin? - No issues

Any other comments? - The balcony door is new and so is the metal balcony railing and floor.  Speaking to others they indicated the same.  

Just returned from the Pride on 5/5 and I thought CCL communicated as can be expected considering what transpired.  From what I heard officials are attempting to float the Dali this week.  Still the Unified Command is using the cruise port terminal as their command post so until this major part of the cleanup is complete, I don't think they will be moving or downsizing their command center until then.       

Here is the email CCL issued.  Keep in mind this info may change.  

Below is a copy of the email received.  Hope this helps, keep in mind the details may change. 

Four minutes ago, on JH FB page he stated an email will be issued today.   

1 hour ago, PC 462 said:

The third channel is 20 feet deep and the Pride has a draft of 25 feet,  Baltimore won't be an option until the 35 foot channel is opened, possibly at the end of the month of April.  Carnival might wait until the main 50 foot deep channel is opened towards the end of May.

Hope everyone enjoys the cruise on the 28th!  Wish I was going!!

According to the Unified Commend Response Progress Graphic on the response webpage they are showing the channel with the 35' draft as cleared above and below the surface.  The 20' channel is the channel show on the right in the graphic. The area that shows clear in the main channel is the limited access with a depth of 35'.  My guess the cruise line does not want to get ahead of the politicians on this announcement.  The graphic changed yesterday afternoon, as of me typing this note no news release issued.  I anticipate news conference be conducted before CCL makes an announcement.    

We are on the same sailing. The Key Bridge Response web page was updated today to show the temporary channel is cleared above and below the surface. So I hope we hear something tomorrow. 

On the Unified Command web page, they updated the Response Progress Graphic which showed all in progress this morning and now shows the limited channels is clear on the surface and subsurface.  Also, on JH FB page he said be patient.  

On the Unified Command web page, they updated the Response Progress Graphic which showed all in progress this morning and now shows the limited channels is clear on the surface and subsurface.  Also, on JH FB page he said be patient.  

We are the Pride on 4/28 and haven't been advised yet. 

4 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

I don't think JH would ever release inside information.

Didn't release any info, he asked a question.  I don't think he would ask a question like that without receiving guidance from whom he calls the beards.   

During the news conference today, it was reported that three bridge pieces need to be moved to open channel 3.  One is being moved today and the others in the next day or two.  

Not that it means anything at this point, today on JH FB page he asked the following question:

"Do you one day hope that Carnival Cruise Line will build a smaller ship, a brand new ship say a new Spirit class sized ship?". 

I think this is very interesting, because he often presents items prior to news releases.  No guarantees, but interesting and adds to this thread.  

News conference today at 1pm est. time will tell.  Looking at some photos of channel 3, it looks like they may have one more section to remove, at least above the water line.  Viewing the live feed, looks like they are working the channel 3 area.  

34 minutes ago, Jamman54 said:

The solution is to play with chips, and then payoff the winner discreetly after the game. For those that have never played,  it's a winner takes all game. 😎

 

And, don't play during prime eating times!!! 😎

Don't know what the game is but would agree, keep a tally on paper and do the payout discreetly.  

4 hours ago, tidecat said:

There is another thread about this, but the cruise terminal itself is being used as a command center. Until the JIC, Coast Guard, and Navy clear out there will be no cruising from Baltimore.

 

I would suspect it will come down to when the Dali can be safely towed away from the scene.

Agree, since Unified Command is located at the terminal.  But I have one thought, since the cruise lines know that the full channel's projected opening is late May and Unified Command will need to be in place until then, why not just make the move to Norfolk until mid to late May.  I would think it would provide a temporary stabilization of delivery logistics.  Unless the port has a plan to handle both Unified Command and cruise functions at the same time.    

9 hours ago, tidecat said:

Agreed, if the market softens it will be the older and smaller ships that get offloaded first. In Carnival's case it may not necessarily be the oldest (Sunshine) or smallest (Elation/Paradise)

 

Carnival uses a 30-year deprecation schedule for their ships and keeps a 15% residual value  While the ships were paid for decades ago, Carnival still has to take a charge on its P&L when it sells the ship (either for scrap or to another operator).

 

Obviously any secured debt can make a ship sale more complicated, but generally speaking it would be possible to substitute a comparable or more valuable vessel without a lien on it with the consent of the lender. Carnival has paid off some secured debt which has removed the lien from some vessels.

 

Larger ships will always be more fuel efficient. Royal's Oasis-class actually uses less fuel in total, not just per passenger, than some of their older ships.

 

The break even point on larger ships is also much lower than it is on older ships. Since Carnival Corporation doesn't publish financial results by brand, any figures you see include everything from Carnival Cruise Line to Seabourn. Royal has stated the break even point on the Oasis-class is actually around 35%, while older ships run closer to 50% (https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2021/08/new-royal-caribbean-ships-break-even-at-35-percent-occupancy/#:~:text=What occupancy does Royal Caribbean,executive vice president and CFO.) - I would expect Carnival sees a similar spread, even if the starting point is higher.

 

About 10-12% of the cost of your cruise is the cost of the ship itself. The Excel class is around $183,000 per lower berth (2020 dollars). The Fantasy class, adjusted for inflation, is around $296,000. Even if all other costs are the same on a per-passenger basis, the Fantasy class ship might eke out a 5% profit instead of a 15% profit given the same fare. Except we know the costs likely aren't going to be the same; even if the captain on Mardi Gras makes considerably more than the Elation, a vacant lower berth on Mardi Gras means you're only missing 1/5300 of the Captain's salary instead of 1/2100 like you would on Elation or Paradise. Now consider that for every static position like an engineer, cruise director, HR director, etc.

 

Then the passenger on the larger ship spends more because there are more places onboard for them to part with their money. The bigger ship wins every time.

Since this thread was discussing future fleet.  I think newer smaller ships should be part of the plan.  As I stated, if any cruise line added smaller ships with the technology of the mega ships the smaller ships would be less expensive to operate in a soft market.  Because they would be easier fill closer to capacity compared to a mega ship and have a higher occupancy rate and margin.  Yes, the mega ships make a larger "profit" in the current booming market, but when a market softening occurs, unless they can fill the mega ship, they will be expensive for a cruise line to maintain compared to a smaller ship with the same technology.        

3 hours ago, kwokpot said:

I understand that. What I was alluding to is the assumption that when business is not as good a cruiseline should have smaller ships so they can fill those ships up to 100%. My point was filling the Spirit and Miracle to 100% isn't going to be more profitable to Carnival than if the Jubilee sailed with the same amount of passengers at a 60% load factor. That's all I'm saying. No mainstream cruiseline is going to build a new class of sub 100,000 ton ships which many mainstream passengers, at least here on CC, seem to want not just on Carnival but many other lines too. TBH I personally love the 90,000 ton class of ships from any cruiseline . It's the perfect size to offer a bit of everything but not too much of anything. 

Using your example if a mega ship sails at 60% cap the cruise line would not produce an income to cover the expense for that sailing.  For a cruise line to make their projected 15% profit it must be filled to their 100% cap.  In your example the 40% passenger loss on a sailing would reduce their projected income from reduced fares and onboard spending by that percentage.  If a cruise line invested in new smaller ships with similar technology of the mega ships, the smaller ships would be cheaper to sail due to the size (less fuel), less maintenance and operation costs due to reduced activities, dining options, etc. and far fewer staff (Carnival Excel class crew size 1,735, Carnival Spirit class crew size 930).  I know one thing; the market will be the driving force and if the numbers show large number of seasoned cruises moving to other non-mainstream cruise lines, changes will occur. No cruise line can survive with new guest only, that is why loyalty programs exist. 

This is just my guess, but based on your example of 60% cap, I would bet the current Fantasy and Spirit classes would have a lower percentage of loss vs a mega ship.  Since they are over 20 years old, they probably bought and paid for many years ago.  I understand they may be considered an asset for securing loans.          

2 hours ago, kwokpot said:

I guess my issue is with this statement you make. Do you have any facts to support this assertion? 

Yes, how the cruise industry makes money.  If a ship sails with empty staterooms/berths they cannot make up that lost revenue.  With the current demand CCL recently hit 100 capacity, fleet wide. Their (and all cruise lines) next goal should be to sail at >100 capacity fleet wide.      

45 minutes ago, kwokpot said:

As a RCL stockholder for 16 years paying $9.99/share and having it recently reached it's all time high of $141.66 (currently down to $127.70) and it's considered a BUY with all analysts with a target of $154 it's obviously doing something right.

Since you appear to be a long-time stockholder you should understand the buy recommendation is a prediction and their targeted value may or may not come true.  Remember Enron, all was good until it wasn't.  Not saying any cruise company is equivalent to Enron, but things are all good until something happens like economic downturn, world unrest, and we cannot forget what happened during the pandemic two weeks turned into a year. and all the positive outlooks turn negative.               

4 hours ago, kwokpot said:

I don't think that is the case AT ALL. Everything written has made the case that larger ships are more profitable since there's more cabin types that can charge higher fees even though there's more cabins to fill than a smaller ship (AND they are VASTLY more fuel efficient vs the older ships). I haven't read anything written by any cruiseline that supports your statement above and actually what's written is exactly the opposite, hence cruiselines building larger ships. NCL's newest Prima Class set out to build smaller ships and everyone is complaining they aren't big enough (Even NCL's CEO felt the same), so the next several Prima Class ships are bigger and then NCL just announced they will build a whole fleet of a new class of ships that will be their largest ever. 

I agree, large ships are more profitable when sailing full. As I said in a market downturn it may become difficult to fill the mega ships to 100% capacity. Yes, the cruise industry has a good forecast.  There were about 20 million worldwide passengers in 2022, about 31 million in 2023 and the forecast for 2024 is about 36 million or about a 5 million increase from 2023.  The 2025, 2026 and 2027 industry forecast slows to an increase to about a 1 million passengers year over year, which falls back in line to the yearly increases prior to the shutdown.  Based on their forecast, demand is going to soften (downturn) in the coming years compared to this year.  I believe coupled with USA household (HH) credit card debt of $1.13 trillion as reported in Q4/2023 (not including vehicles or mortgages), which is an increase of $50 billion from the previous report.  So, based on the industry forecast and the current economic conditions I believe the market will soften in the coming year(s) and it will take more for cruise lines to fill their ships, mega ships will be more difficult to fill compared to their smaller fleet of ships.  

Assuming a full ship, 100% capacity, the industry states about 70% of cruise line income comes from fares and 30% from onboard spending.  At 100% cap. they make about 15% "profit", so if the ship does not sail at 100% cap. it reduces the 15% projection.  In the current market, ships are being filled months prior to the sailing and all is good.  However, we will know when the market softens when we start seeing mainstream cruise lines discounting sailings close to their sailing dates.  I enjoy cruising and hope the industry remains strong, but think more changes are coming as berths increase and the cruise lines fight for the consumer's dollars.  Changes may include ship size, charging for eating in the MDR (this transition started with a charge for additional meals), and charging for shows, etc., remember room service was once free 24/7.                               

2 hours ago, mz-s said:

Don't bet on an upgrade offer coming your way. Book the room you want, or do the free inside.

 

I rarely get upgrade offers these days but when I do the upgrade is not much of a discount vs. just booking that room in the first place.

Totally agree. Since cruise demand is high, upgrades are not like they once were.  

On 3/23/2024 at 10:58 PM, lasvegascruising said:

NOW HEAR THIS...we are due to turn platinum December 2024 which happens to be our 40th anniversary cruise.  If this gets screwed up, we are going to SCREAM.  We were due to turn platinum December 2023 for our 39th anniversary cruise but the Panorama was cancelled.  Please wait until 2025 to make any changes so we can at least have one cruise with priority boarding.

Just found this in CCL's FAQ for the transition to the current VIFP program back in 2013.  So depending the timeline and if they transition in the same manner, you may be okay.   

9 minutes ago, VARINA65 said:

for platinum passengers is pressing free

Where is that stated, CCL's states: