rudoja00

Which embarkation date?  We are on the 2/4 cruise on Oasis.

11 minutes ago, rudoja00 said:

 

It's cratered in the last 3 hours.  I think it's finally pricing in the common stock sale at $8 plus debt offering with 11.5% rates.

 

This thing is going to be sub 7 at some point today.

Not to mention the entire market will have a huge dip when the jobless report comes out.  

3 hours ago, NYrunner said:

CCL is up around $10 in pre-market trading. Could see a pop today due to a short squeeze. I also think the secondary offering is ultimately a good thing as it will keep CCL afloat (sorry for the pun) during these rough seas (sorry, not sorry). 

It's cratered in the last 3 hours.  I think it's finally pricing in the common stock sale at $8 plus debt offering with 11.5% rates.

This thing is going to be sub 7 at some point today.

17 hours ago, jesskuhmarie said:

This is a huge reach. From what I've read Carnival has $12 Billion of liquidity currently, they have no lack of funds to issues these refunds. The delay is clearly due to the unprecedented number of refunds they are having to process at once. It takes time. I have no doubt Carnival will have some struggles coming out of this whole shutdown, but to make inflammatory claims like this is just irresponsible. 

LOL, that's why they went full panic and did a huge equity and debt offering at an obscene 11.5% to raise desperately needed cash?  The good news is they got some cash...the bad news is they now have an insane debt load for 3 years.

I still stand by my hunch that many of us don't ever see these refunds.  

Reading all of this makes some of you feel good?  It's pretty obvious CCL was counting on future revenues to pay the refunds for the first round of cancellations.  The 2nd month of cancelled bookings plus being justifiably left out of the stimulus plan is why we are being told 90 days.  They simply do not have the cash on hand and are hoping for some miracle financing in the very near future.

We ain't getting our refunds folks.  Best bet will be a message down the road that converted refunds to FCC.

2 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

Over react much?

Drama?

 

 

Maybe just frustration spilling over like many of us have or will do due to the current situation.

You think it's an overreaction to be told that your refund that was originally promised in 4-6 weeks (absurd by itself) will now be 90 days?  

All of us should be very concerned at this point about ever getting our refunds or redeeming that FCC.

The cancellation and subsequent FCC/Refund split back on 3/13 was per arrangement with Carnival, and at that time was advised 4-6 weeks for refund portion.   Carnival just reneged on that contract today.

I was originally scheduled to sail on the Vista on 4/11.  I cancelled on 3/13 and got part FCC and about 1k worth of refund and was told by my TA that it would be 4-6 weeks before the refund posted.  

After the cancellation today I got the following notice from my TA:

"Good morning XXXXXX,

I hope everyone is well and staying safe.  Below is the update I just received from Carnival in regards to your cruise.  Since they went ahead and cancelled this cruise they are offering the same options to you as if you did not cancel in advance.  This means you can receive a 100% credit instead of the future cruise credit portion that you originally chose.  Please let me know what questions you have and which option you prefer.  Carnival's current refund estimates are 90 days so the quicker you can let me know your preferred option I can get it submitted for you."

I was informed that NONE of the prior refunds from the last round of cancellations had been processed and that I needed to choose either 100% refund or 100% FCC+bonus at this time, and that a refund will take 90 days.  So instead of getting about 1K in a few weeks I now have to wait 3 months for a refund from a company that is getting zero stimulus bailout.

Absolutely fraudulent.  The company is going to run out of cash in the next few days and we won't get a cent back, and when they declare bankruptcy we won't have any FCC left either.  

59 minutes ago, NightOne said:

OK doom and gloomers (and the shorts) ... the stock is heading back north and will continue to do so long term. I predict it will not go into single digits again.

 

 

It'll go down to single digits literally the day they announce the next month of cancellations.

I agree long term it's a good stock to hold, but you are kidding yourself if you think the roller coaster has stopped.  

I've got some held for long term, and I've also got some short options set for April 9th.

2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Be ready for a long hold, dividend will be cut, and the leisure / travel industry won't recover for another year or more and when it does it will look very different, like the airports post 9/11.

 

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

I'm totally fine.  I really am picking it up for a 5+ year hold.  I agree the T&L industry is going to change for years after this.  

Same play with Hilton, DIS and Delta.

I've been buying in over the last week for long term holding.

At the same time I've got some put options in play for April 9th because the next month long stoppage (if not longer) is going to crush the stock price into mid to low single digits.

5 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

Not sketchy.  It takes time to process refunds.

No, it doesn't.   This is strictly about cash flow management on their part. 

I'm almost certainly going to scoop up 100 or 200 shares on Friday.

I was told 4-6 weeks for the cash refund part, which is freaking absurd.  RCL processed a refund within 48 hours.

I fear Carnival is going to have a major liquidity crisis.

1 hour ago, OMGOMGOMG said:

I don't see the reason for closing the port - unless it's preventing groups of more than 250 per the governors order. The virus is already here. These leaders still think its a "foreign disease". Sorry, not anymore. 

 

Closing schools for two weeks does what exactly? It's already been shown that kids are pretty immune to this virus. It's the elderly and unhealthy. So close the casinos. Close the senior social clubs.

The entire point is slowing the rate of spread to keep it from overwhelming the health care system.  

The ban doesn't go into effect until Friday at midnight.  They have 48 hours to change their plans.

If we are still in a panic with people cancelling in mid summer, the entire cruise industry will have collapsed.

On 3/10/2020 at 3:56 PM, Stick93 said:

Everyone  will book again and there will never be a no risk policy. Would you like the companies to go out of business - they have to weather the storm and we as customers have to do what we feel comfortable doing. If you don’t think this is going away then don’t book. If you believe summer will be better than book. But if you book you are paying and your money will be tied up! 
 

 

If the cruise industry gets a bailout from federal funds, they damn sure better implement a no risk policy to protect those of us who funded that bailout.

Is this going to mean a 14 day quarantine for anybody returning from a cruise out of Galveston?

Yes.  And I believe they will reimburse your change in travel costs to return home as well.

For those of you holding out on a full refund from Carnival, do you realize that there is no way any of the cruise lines are liquid enough to issue full cash refunds for every passenger over the next few months?

I'm of the opinion that over the next few weeks the industry and government will settle in on a plan to mitigate this going forward that doesn't involve quarantine of entire ships.  For those of us sailing next month, that March 31st deadline to change plans is plenty of time to let the situation develop more.  No need to be hasty at this time.

22 minutes ago, Mark_UK said:

 

Here’s the link: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/travelers-with-special-considerations/cruise-ship-passengers.html?fbclid=IwAR23mRlu4-382HLuSM8i0KWQBSaZ4heDniggmxR3kBR6e2EgWiKr6B0EseM

 

Can’t be good news for cruise lines!

That's an understatement.  Whatever new bookings they were getting just vanished.

State department threw cruises under the bus this afternoon.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/travelers-with-special-considerations/cruise-ship-passengers.html?fbclid=IwAR23mRlu4-382HLuSM8i0KWQBSaZ4heDniggmxR3kBR6e2EgWiKr6B0EseM

"

Passengers on Cruise Ships

U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship.  CDC notes increased risk of infection of COVID-19 in a cruise ship environment. In order to curb the spread of COVID-19, many countries have implemented strict screening procedures that have denied port entry rights to ships and prevented passengers from disembarking.  In some cases, local authorities have permitted disembarkation but subjected passengers to local quarantine procedures.  While the U.S. government has evacuated some cruise ship passengers in recent weeks, repatriation flights should not be relied upon as an option for U.S. citizens under the potential risk of quarantine by local authorities.  

This is a fluid situation.  CDC notes that older adults and travelers with underlying health issues should avoid situations that put them at increased risk for more severe disease.  This entails avoiding crowded places, avoiding non-essential travel such as long plane trips, and especially avoiding embarking on cruise ships.  Passengers with plans to travel by cruise ship should contact their cruise line companies directly for further information and continue to monitor the Travel.state.gov website and see the latest information from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html. "

I'm crusing on 4/11 on the Vista and going to wait a couple weeks to see if the cruise industry and port authorities find reasonable ways to test quickly and not run the risk of being stuck on the ship for multiple extra days due to inefficiencies in testing protocol.