Operating cash flow isn't affected by the ship buildouts. And it's this dwindling operating cash flow that's freaking the street out right now. Revenues going down and costs up.
On the revenue side, squeezed folks are balking at the upfront price tag of a cruise. The cruise lines are trying cruise-only fares - and hoping for a higher-margin spend out of those on board. But that doesn't work well for the likes of CCL - 80% of whose brands are now mid-market or lower. NCL is better placed with Oceania and Regent. RCL somewhere in the middle.
The costs. This inflation was supposed to be temporary, but, boy, the stubbornness. Food prices are up, fuel prices are up, interest rates are up, and a lot of crew (from India, Indonesia, Philippines) is finding easier opportunities back home. Some source markets - Eastern Europe, for instance - are now off limits.
To me, for the cruise stock prices to recover, the inflation has to come down. A lot. Summer is typically the most profitable quarter, yet the stubborn inflation broke it for CCL.
That said, cruising is a secular growth product, and the industry an oligopoly. If the cruise lines can ride it out till the next next spring/summer, we might just see a huge recovery in these share prices.