Branman

14 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

Again, these are things that are being assumed due to our self-induced panic. You may be right, you may not be. What if these things never happen? 

 

If half of cruisers have vaccine immunity. "X" percentage have the taboo natural immunity. 100% of crew are vaccinated, we have what 70-80%+ of the ship with an immunity? How many of the rest would never even show symptoms IF they caught it? No need for math that says well "20-30%" of a ship is a lot of people. We know that. That is not how COVID is spreading though. All while panicking over the health of the 1% of society at risk who SHOULD be the focus of vaccination. It's ridiculous that we would shut down everything for a few cases.

 

 

I see you aren't in marketing.

 

Why are you talking about protecting people onboard the ship? The precautions aren't in place to protect them, the precautions are in place to enable calling on ports who don't have access to vaccines. I'm not against having un-vaccinated cruises to nowhere with no social distancing requirements for people who have access to vaccines-- that's a personal choice for those unvaccinated and more power to them. However, ports are well within their rights as sovereign nations to deny docking to ships that have coronavirus cases on board. Until vaccines have been available across the Caribbean, you will see precautions in place.

5 minutes ago, sm3ds said:

You're assuming those people want to cruise. can afford to cruise, and are heathy enough to cruise. Many people only take one or two cruises in a lifetime. They have to keep bringing in first time cruisers.  

I'd argue that the 8% multiplier accounts for that. What would you propose as alternate numbers?

We're vaccinating 400,000 (new) people per day in the U.S. That trend is going down, so let's say by the time July rolls around it's 300,000 first shots per day. That's two million people per week receiving their first dose in addition to the 172 million (or 51.8% of the population) that have received their first dose. By August you will have at least 180 million people fully vaccinated (including over 85% of 65+). How many of those need to be cruisers in order to support the reduced fleets in August, September, and October?

Additionally, international travel is opening soon. Canada and the U.K. have over 60% of their residents with their first dose. You will also see international demand pick up as well. It's not a huge market for Carnival, but you could usually count on a one or two hundred people on cruises out of Florida being international.

Like was said in an earlier post (I forget which thread), it's not like people are becoming unvaccinated. The pool of potential customers grows by hundreds of thousands of people each day. The cruise lines will probably make more money with higher capacity ships that don't enforce masks and social distancing vs lower capacity ships with masks and social distancing.

4 minutes ago, balcony bound said:

Um.  Not so sure about that.  I found this online

 

According to statistics published by CLIA, around 15% of the total US population has cruised ever, and 7% to 8% have done so within the last three years. This means that 85% of US citizens have never taken a cruise

So, if 8% of the population are cruisers, then (assuming a pure random sample) 32,000 cruisers are vaccinated every day. So now you move up to enough people are vaccinated each week to fill up every cruise ship that departs the United States.

10 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

 

While in theory, there should be some strong demand built up, when you automatically disqualify half of society, that's going to hurt. Period. It's also a big assumption that all of the vaccinated people feel completely comfortable to cruise right now either.

I mean how many unvaccinated people want to spend thousands of dollars on a cruise vacation with required masking while indoors (including while between courses at dinner!), possible closure of ports, threat of cruise termination, and threat of quarantine (not being able to fly home)? The choice isn't between a 2019 cruise with vaccinated people or a 2019 cruises with unvaccinated people; the choice is between a (close to a) 2019 cruise with vaccinated people or a strict covid protocol cruise with unvaccinated people. 

As far a the market, enough people get vaccinated every day (~400,000) to fill every cruise ship that sails out of the United States 2 times over.

2 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

These should be worked out ahead of time by the cruise lines and each countries respective CDC equivalent or body. Could some have a more restrictive policy that the US CDC? Sure. I don't think it will be a big problem though. The science will generally be the same and that should guide policy, not irrational fear. I trust it will work out just fine. They are pros at this, this is their business.   

It's not about the science, it's about the perceived risk to the populace because these islands don't have access to vaccines in the same way that the U.S. does. 

I honestly don't know what the protocol ship-wide would be once there is a case. We know that if someone is symptomatic, they have already been transmitting the virus during the pre-symptomatic phase of the disease. Other non-vaccinated people on board could be incubating or in the transmitting pre-symptomatic phase. 

If the protocol is "only vaccinated guests and crew may disembark and no masks/social distancing for vaccinated passengers while onboard" then I'm sure vaccinated guests would be cool with that, but the question isn't what other guests are cool with, it's what are the local authorities in each country cool with.

Similarly, would a protocol of "once there is a case onboard, all non-vaccinated guests (including children) must isolate in their rooms for the rest of the cruise" be better or worse than "only vaccinated guests are allowed on board"? I'm really curious to see what Royal Caribbean's "in case of a positive covid test on board" protocols will be. 

Just now, cruisingguy007 said:

 

If it's only kids that are unvaccinated (or a few crew members) there should be no need to terminate a cruise. If a kid/crew (heck even a vaccinated passanger) falls ill enough to need medical attention and tests positive for covid then they stay on the ship for the duration of the cruise and monitored by health staff. No port visits for them, cruise continues as usual for everyone else. These "outbreaks" you kept referring to will most likely end up being nothing but a few cases. No need to be so dramatic, overreact and fear monger. The "threshold" hasn't even been announced.   

This is making the big assumption that the ports will allow a ship that has a positive case to dock and disembark guests. The ports could just as easily say "you're not docking" and the cruise is over or is now a cruise to nowhere. 

1 minute ago, jfunk138 said:

OK, but this is not what you stated in your post:

"requiring proof of vaccination before being allowed into a foreign country"

None of these Carnival destinations have required vaccination, and some are still requiring testing even if vaccinated.

Fair point that I wasn't as clear as I could be. I mostly wanted to make the point that it is totally within a country's right to deny entry to anyone for any reason, and that includes proof of vaccination. We're not there yet, but I'm sure things are going to evolve rapidly to where vaccinations are required for international travel. We're seeing that right now with Europe, and I'm certain that most destination ports.

Like I just said, the key scenario is, what happens if someone on board tests positive for Covid? Do you continue with the cruise as planned? Probably not. If and when we get to the point where we just continue the cruise as planned, then let's bring on unvaccinated guests. 

9 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

Yet, none of Carnival's Caribbean destinations or Mexico has required any proof of vaccination.

They require a negative test within a certain timeframe. So for instance, Honduras requires a negative test less than 72 hours before your entry. If you are on a cruise out of Galveston on a reverse itinerary (Coz->Belize->Roatan), that will need to be a test conducted onboard. If someone tests positive on the ship at that point, then I'm pretty sure the whole cruise gets derailed and is unable to dock in Roatan. 

I'm sure Carnival would love to cruise with unvaccinated guests. I'm sure the vast majority of vaccinated guests wouldn't care if unvaccinated guests joined them IF the protocols for sailing didn't necessitate doing anything drastic if anyone tests positive for Covid.

It basically comes down to, I (as someone who is vaccinated) don't want to spend money on a cruise that:

• Requires masks and/or social distancing for vaccinated passengers.
• Is denied entry to ports in the event that someone tests positive for Covid.
• Requires a quarantine period for whatever reason.
• Any other randomness that causes a cruise to go south for entirely predictable reasons.

Fundamentally, this all comes down to sovereign counties using their rights to deny entry to anyone who is positive or exposed to Covid. If we ever get to a point where someone comes down with Covid, and we can still dock in a port, then let's bring on the unvaccinated people. We can talk all day about how unvaccinated kids aren't at risk, but that probably has zero influence on a port's decision to let a ship that has a confirmed case of Covid on board to dock and unload guests.

There is a HUGE difference between requiring proof of vaccination for exercising your rights in your home country vs requiring proof of vaccination before being allowed into a foreign country. 

That would require having a U.S. flagged ship and would require, among other things, to have a ship that was built at a U.S. shipyard and crewed by U.S. nationals. Unfortunately, there are no shipyards in America that are cost-competitive at building ships (the Pride of America was partially built in America under a special program to subsidize its construction, and it still had to be completed overseas and get a special waiver to be U.S. flagged), and American crew members would be extraordinarily expensive as they would be required to pay U.S. income tax. Obviously NCL makes this work, but they have a monopoly. It's an open question as to how large the intra-Hawaii market is and if it can support two ships and would represent a high risk investment which may not yield a proportional reward for the level of risk incurred.

You don't think until March/April of 2016? April 2017 is already up. I hope it isn't that long.

They release a full year at a time once a year.

They will likely be posted in March or April of 2016.

He is the one that puts all that great entertainment together. It is up to them to keep all running smooth. They do the Fun Times plus handle all those kids that are out entertaining you at Trivia & Bingo.

Most of them HATE THOSE ANNOUNCEMENTS as much as you hate hearing them.

When you have a bad one it trickles down through the whole ship.

Char

Most of that is done by the entertainment director these days. They created that position so that the cruise director's only job is to interact with guests. Wee Jimmy is one of the first cruise directors that have worked under this new system.

I had him on my Breeze cruise back in October. It was amazing how big a difference the new system makes. Previously, I had never seen the cruise director at every single "big" event around the ship and on lido. Wee Jimmy made it to so many events and made them all much more entertaining and memorable.

Which ships are test ships? Thank you.

Glory, Liberty, Imagination, and Inspiration

If you look on that site, he has photo blogs from Imagination and Inspiration which have some of the newer menus on it.

Those are some really old menus from the Glory; the current ones are very different from the ones posted on that site. They are still in the process of tweaking them on the four test ships.

Even priority boarding for kettles?

That's before you get on board. The only priority amenity that exists on the ship is the guest services line, and that would only be a class-upgrade for FTTF guests. I guess you could count the gold, plat, and diamond party and the diamond-only event, but that's stretching it since that has nothing to do with the purchased fare.

Either way, it's still a big stretch to compare loyalty program rewards with a separate area of the ship with its own private amenities.

It's simply a way for them to compete with NCL's "The Haven," which offers a private pool to suite guests.

The whole point is that this goes against what Carnival has been traditionally all about. I thought the point was that once you're on the ship, Carnival treats pretty much everyone exactly the same: the same amenities are included in a 1-A cabin that are included in a suite.

Where does it say it is a private pool?

 

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A post on John Heald's facebook. It was posted on the previous page where he mentions that it will be open to everyone in the evening.

Separation of the classes has begun.

 

 

 

Thank you

That's exactly right. This is the first example of taking something that is otherwise included (pool and hot tubs) and making it private for a certain group of people. This is very different from the spa cabins where it takes something that is not included and includes it.

Creating an upper class is a first from Carnival.

There will be Havana Cabanas which will connect to a private pool and have patios with deck furniture and yes..............hammocks.

In the evening the Havana pool area will be open to all guests:D

This is really the feature that really bugs me about this ship-- the restricted deck 5 aft pool. A pool and two hot tubs are a huge space of the ship to be restricted to ~100 guests during most of the day. When I first saw the renderings this morning, I was really pumped by this feature, but now it's a big letdown.

For those of you who have not heard yet, there has been some information unofficially released on Carnival's new 2016 ship. Here we go...

 

1. There will be no large Atrium - only 3 decks stopping at deck 5:

2. Deck 4 will have the Casino from the existing conference room to the Blush Dining Room as exists on Breeze;

3. Ship will be approximately 21 feet longer at bow and 30 feet at aft;

4. It will be the same width as the Dream Class;

5. There will be 3 pools (with a 1/2 in 1/2 out pool where the current Limelight Lounge is on the Breeze);

6. More cabins with a capacity of 5,100 persons (an increase of 400 persons from existing Breeze);

7. Cabins will be in existing empty space above deck 5 of Breeze Atrium;

8. Deck 5 will have a number of "specialty" restaurants (paid) with a variety of themes;

9. There will be a "Crew Serenity" area at bow of ship with same style chairs, hammocks etc. (no spa) like the existing Serenity areas on board Carnival ships;

10. It will be around 5,000 tons heavier than existing Dream Class (130,000) and will most likely be called Carnival Sunrise, Carnival Vista, or Carnival Splash, most likely Sunrise!

 

All of these are rumors that I have heard. Much of this will probably be true (reliable source) but some of it may not be true.

 

Your thoughts?

As much as this post has been maligned over the past few months, it ends up being pretty spot on.

Given the deck plans posted here: http://www.carnival.com/~/media/Images/Ships/VS/DeckPlans/Vista-Deck-Plan-PDFpdf

The atrium is only 3 stories high.

The casino was moved to deck 4.

There are 3 pools with one being moved to the aft of deck 5.

The promenade is filled with specialty restaurants.

Based on these deck plans, I can't really comment on the crew areas or the added dimensions. There is an incorrect prediction that the space vacated by the atrium will be filled by cabins; it will be filled by the imax theatre.

You can always just buy a ticket and show up at the airport. When you check in on Carnival's website, they will ask you what your incoming flight is, just put in some flight that arrives early in the morning when you expect to arrive.

The Lanai on the Dream class is one of the best and most innovative features on Carnival ships to the point where other lines' new builds have similar outdoor promenades. It's rarely crowded has plenty of hot tubs for relaxing, and one side is always guaranteed to be in the shade.

Would it be fair to assume there is going to be a NY/NJ connection for Vista if they are announcing the details there? (I know... might be a big IF)

 

Seems a rather arbitrary place for a Miami based company to make the announcement unless they can say "oh yeah, and it's gonna be here too"

They also had their Carnival Live series announcement in NYC, and none of the bands played on the Splendor. It's probably done there so that they are close to more media companies who can send a representative.

I was on the Breeze last week. NFL games were shown in the Red Frog Pub. This included three Sunday games, Monday Night, and Thursday Night.