Builder31

Am I wrong to think no cruise ship will sail until there is a vaccine? Even if covid numbers peak and start to come down. Even if only a handful of people in the US have the disease it can spread again, right? So isn’t that 12-18 months of shut down?

I just don’t see how any of the cruise lines can survive that. I hope I’m wrong.


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During financial crisis there could have been a crisis of liquidity. Banks pulled credit and bonds went to junk and without liquidity companies go bust far quicker. In this situation a company would only survive on its cash in the bank. If that cash was in Lehman or some other bust bank then you are in trouble.

 

If banks are functioning then credit can flow and deals can be done to cover them over this period. Creditors who have funded billions in new ships would not want to see royal go under as those assets would see a huge loss in value.

 

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The problem is the banks are going to be in an even worse position this time. As the unemployment rate spikes millions will not be able to pay their mortgage. In the financial crisis it wasn’t this bad for the airlines, hotels, restaurateurs, etc. Even with the current monetary policy there is not enough $ to go around to provide liquidity for every industry.

Yes the ships are going to be sailing once they are able. But if they declare chapter 11 then the common stock holders are likely wiped out. Bankruptcy doesn’t mean RCL shuts down.

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IMO cruise industry will not get a bailout. Every business in the US is going to need assistance or a bailout. Cruise industry is near the bottom of the list due to the reasons mentioned. I’m a frequent cruiser and would oppose a bailout unless all ships were to be registered in the US and the companies started paying US taxes.


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All of the above is well in to the price. 85% decline in stock value is about as pessimistic as it gets. Short selling is driving it down.

 

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Short interest ratio is only 2.5. It’s not really being shorted.

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I doubt there will be enough $ for a cruise bailout. Every industry will need a bailout not to mention all the $ going to the millions that will be out of work. Cruise industry is pretty far down the list.


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Lol,this crap with everyone thinking they know whats going to happen has to stop. The 8 week distancing isnt something every business has to do. Its a guideline. Imagine what this economy wouldbe like if this goes past march 31st? Stop with the crystal ball crap. You are guessing plain and simple. Dont add to the panic.

We are on the Oasis April 12.  I cancelled all extras and am waiting until the very end to cancel the cruise.  I think Royal is playing chicken and so will I.  They know they should not sail but are being irresponsibly  greedy.  If I cancel now, they will sell my cabin to to some other misguided passenger, and I think this is wrong on so many levels.

Anyone buying the stock right now is nuts. There is SO much more bad news to come. Namely the extension of the suspensions. CDC says social distancing should last at least 8 weeks and many say it will last longer. The fact that you can still book a cruise for April 12 out of FL is a joke. June is the best case scenario IMO.

And there is no way they will be able to bail out the cruise lines. There is not enough $ to go around. Every industry in the US is going to need help and they are now saying 20% unemployment. That is low IMO.


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I think it’s the quarantine that freaks everyone out and gets the media attention. If 1 person on a cruise tests positive the whole ship is quarantined in their tiny room. If 1 person at Disney tests positive, it’s later in a hospital. They don’t pull all 60k people into “It’s a small world” to quarantine them [emoji23]

I agree that Disney is not safer. Neither is Costco, Home Depot, etc. The media is just playing on peoples fear of being cooped up in a 140sf space for a couple weeks.


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We booked an inside cabin on Oasis 3 weeks ago after a price drop. The price just dropped again and my TA got us a balcony for $10 more. RC tried to tell my TA it was only for new bookings but she got it done.

Bankruptcy or not the cruise industry will not shut down. They aren’t just going to let billions of dollars of assets sit idle. Someone will be operating the ships.


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In the current situation it would help Royal and other guests if people keep the guest service hotline busy only with important change requests I believe. 

As a frequent carnival cruiser I’ve used gift cards to pay for cruises (even via a TA), to pay for onboard expenses, tips, even at the casino. It amazes me that a company as large as RC could make it so difficult to use its own gift card.


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Under All Activity's not All Entertainment 

Wondering if anyone has done the ship tour on oasis and if it was worth it. Seems pricey at $116pp currently. Have never done a ship tour and thought maybe oasis would be a good one to do. Thx.

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Where do you book those? I don’t see them in my cruise planner.


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April 5. Just spoke to RC and sounds like you can’t make reservations for the family shows. It’s first come first served. Does that sound right?


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Finally was able to make entertainment reservations for our sailing on Oasis. But comedy shows won’t allow under 18 to make a reservation. I know kids aren’t allowed in the adult shows. But I assume there has to be family comedy shows onboard. Do you have to wait until you are onboard to book those?

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The next cruise planner sale starts March 6th

We just booked Oasis for 4/5 and the only thing available was early dining. Have no idea who wants to eat dinner at 5:30 on vacation, but not us. We are on waiting list for MTD. Hopefully we can talk to maitre d when on board and get switched to MTD or late seating.

If we can’t switch, can we still go to the MDR and wait for a table? We usually don’t eat before 7/730.

We’ve done several Carnival cruises but sailing on RC for the first time on 4/5. Was looking at pre purchasing internet, photo packages, etc. But pricing went up from yesterday to today. Apparently there was a sale yesterday that ended.

I’m wondering how often those sales occur? Is there likely to be another in the next 4 weeks before we sail? And if so do I need to just keep checking the website?

Thx.

If I buy the digital package, will they give me pics for everyone in my party? We will have people in 3 cabins.


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You can login/logout as needed, as long as there are no more than the number of devices you purchased codes for connected. Obviously once you logout there's no internet anymore on that device.

Sorry if this has been asked multiple times. We’ve done many cruises on carnival but we’re sailing for the 1st time on Oasis in April and wondering about texting each other while on board.

On carnival we usually get 2 internet connections for 4 of us to share. They also have a chat feature on their app which allows us all to text each other whether or not that device is connected to the internet at that time.

But sounds like the chat feature is only available on a couple RC ships, and not on oasis. So do all 4 of us need a voom connection in order to text back and forth? We were again going to get just 2 Internet connections, but I’d like to be able to stay in touch with my teens. Thanks.

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We had a tour with Alex a couple weeks ago and it was ok but honestly we were not impressed. We’ve done many guided tours in many cities and expected him to be talking and telling us about what we’re seeing most of the time. He was very nice and answered all of our questions, but didn’t really volunteer much info as we were driving. And when we stopped at the various places (National Hotel, Fusterlandia, Revolution Square, etc) he just said for us to walk around on our own. I expected him to stay with us and give us more info, you know, like a tour guide. 

And we had told Blexie beforehand and Alex at the beginning of the tour that seeing a cigar factory and seeing fusterlandia was important to us. But when we got to the cigar factory, the tours for the day had ended. So we ended up basically bribing one of the guides to give us a tour. And while we saw fusterlandia, they closed the doors about 5 mins after we arrived. It seemed like he didn’t know the times things were available and we could have easily missed it. Seems like a tour guide should know that info. And our walking tour ended up being 1 hour vs 2. But at that point we were happy to be on our own since he wasn’t giving us that much info anyway. 

Overall it was fine, but if we go back I would book someone else. That evening we went out to dinner and found cars waiting down the malecon to the right. We got a driver and nice guide that didn’t stop talking as we drove to dinner. Wish we had him earlier in the day.