ezd222

4 hours ago, coevan said:

simple calculation % of positive to deaths. 4,000,000 positive and 145,000 deaths is .036% 

I asked for age breakouts...not an aggregate. An average is just an average of extremes (and it's 3.6%).

Here's another one for you specific to Canada.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx

On 7/21/2020 at 10:08 AM, coevan said:

 

not even close to accurate stats. 10X where did you get that number?

 

Or this.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Where do you get your age stats because I'd love to see them.

Alot can be disputed regarding the covid, but the age breakdown is probably the most sound and universally accepted.

On 7/17/2020 at 5:36 PM, ontheweb said:

Let's see what happens when more and more young people catch the virus. Also there are long term effects to consider.

There is already a statistically significant level of infections that dictate the level of near-term deaths. You don't need more data to tell you that older individuals have a 10x fatality vs younger folks. Long-term impacts are  TBD though obviously.

3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Well, it seems more and more young people are coming down with the virus. So they are joining us "old" people who are not on the ships.

Except their death rate is substantially lower. COVID has a hockey stick fatality rate. Takes a severe detour north at around 70 years old.

57 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

I don't understand how that works. Say, theoretically, a company had only 4 shares of stock. I own one so I own 25% of the company. Then they can just issue a 5th share, and suddenly I own only 20% of the company? It doesn't seem like that could be right. It seems like that 5th share would have to be giving up some privately held portion of the company or something. (Which would imply I never owned 25% of it in the first place)

No your 1st statement is more in-line with reality.  The market cap of a company doesn't magically increase. So when you add more stock you dilute the per share value.

With the injection of common stock and new debt terms an 80% discount is not a realistic measure.

I can't see it ever getting back up to ~$50 in the next 5+ years. I believe analysts have targets ~$20 as an optimal price.

3 hours ago, ekkc10753 said:

Would it help our lovely HAL survive if we all bought some more shares of CCL?

Would that help their bottom line? Are stocks an important way that companies make money and survive bad times? I'd buy some more if it would save our ships!

 

Full disclosure: I've owned shares for years because I really like HAL, but I know nothing about structuring, restructuring, bonds etc - I looked at previous thread about "financials" and couldn't make heads or tails out of it!

 

 

As someone who understands the financials, they are not good.  The restructuring deal while necessary was done on poor terms.

If you want to support HAL buy cruises, not stock. They need to show demand to the street. Once they do that, institutional will by the stock in bulk and that will ultimately drive the stock price up. It's critical for upcoming earning reports/call that new demand still exists. If not large buyers will continue the selloff.

On 3/31/2020 at 9:08 AM, easykruz said:

THIS is really good news, because Carnival will be in a better position when all this is over.  And we will continue to enjoy cruising again.

Um no its not. The coupon rate on the debt is hideous (12.5%).  Their is a reason why demand was no high for the bonds. Because stable large corporations don't give out those kind of rates unless they're desperate.

Look at whats happening to the two Holland America ships at the moment. Our own country and government won't take them in. The US Coast Guard has said thanks but no thanks. The FL governor only is willing to take Floridians. It's an humanitarian crisis.  And that stigma is not going to change.

Until there is a vaccine or a prescribed medical treatment don't expect there to be cruising. It's too big a risk factor from a embarking standpoint. Whether that's valid point of view we should take is for another debate. The fact is borders are closed and will remain closed as long as they deem a risk to their own population. And now our own country and state borders are debating closures. The President of HAL had to write an op-ed to plea for help and it basically fell on deaf ears.

2 hours ago, Colo Cruiser said:

 sure would!!

If you snooze you lose.

 

 

This is an incorrect answer.

The correct answer is...it depends.

It will depend on your the intention for your purchase, your hold pattern, and your risk assessment.

Look institutional investors are selling like it a 5 alarm fire (cruise stocks are outpacing the DJI and S&P by 5x today). BofA just severely reduced their price targets for ($117 to $25) and NCL ($61 to $18) so look beyond forums.

But if your a brand ambassador it is great to support. Just know the risks.

1 hour ago, Colo Cruiser said:

Thanks.  

Well as long as they keep giving me the OBC for my cruises I am happy.

I purchased at $12 many years ago and it has gone as high as $70 per at one point.

I am happy with it regardless.

I'm actually not a cruiser. Took a few with my parents. They love it. It's just not for me.

So I didn't evaluate the benefit from a cruise credit POV which I think is a fantastic offer btw if your a cruiser.. Not knocking your intention.  

I just did from a purely upside, dividend, viability perspective. The majority of shares are institutional anyway so long-term upside is whats going to make or break this.  

Interesting times....

19 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said:

Hmmm............welcome to Cruise Critic.  🤔

I had a family member stuck on a ship so I was trying to find information which led to a rabbit hole of research (what I do for a living) as I initially thought there was a price point that could be attractive (ie had a buy order in at $10 which I've pulled).

Unfortunately under the hood doesn't look so good when you look at near and mid term projections. Long term they could right the ship, but its going to take time.

Do I think they'll survive...yes. Do I think they need a bailout. Necessary. But I do think one of the big three (NCL, CCL, RCI) could collapse.

The cruise industry is in serious trouble.

[1] They're highly leveraged

[2] Limited cash

[3] The order book for future ships is large

So you have more supply, depressed demand, and short reserves...

The issue is not the consumer base within cruise critic. That's going to remain stable or slightly decline. The issue (and major one) is incremental demand and new to cruise. That sentiment is getting pummeled. Add to that the hit China and Asia is taking (this is where cruise supply was supposed to go).  It's going to take years upon years to come out of this and either [1] the entire business model changing or [2] the industry condensing to a new normal in terms of total available consumer market.

The counter is this is too big to fail. But we also heard that about Anderson Consulting, Lehman's, and Washington Mutual.