Carnival's answer to Oasis?

[Schplinky]

I think part of RCCL's problem is that for those massive ships to pay for themselves the prices have to continue being high and close to full occupancy for years and I'm not sure they will be.

 

If CCL could charge more for the Dream or other ships, do you not think they would? We went on the Dream at New Year's and paid less than we did on Oasis in September. Both are the same age. By your logic, the Dream is going to be hard to pay for, too.

 

A massive ship like the Dream or the Oasis means that if the rates are high, then the line makes way more per passenger than on a smaller ship. That's why all lines, CCL included, are making their ships larger and larger.

[Sargent_Schultz]

If CCL could charge more for the Dream or other ships, do you not think they would? We went on the Dream at New Year's and paid less than we did on Oasis in September. Both are the same age. By your logic, the Dream is going to be hard to pay for, too.

 

Not at all. It's called economies of scale. Carnival's ships cost less per berth than RCCL's. At the same cruise price, Carnival would be stealing. Carnival's cookie cutter design makes it less expensive to build and a lot cheaper to maintain.

 

As for hard to pay for, Carnival basically pays cash for ships and RCCL is in hock up to it's eyeballs. There is also interest on all those loans. RCCL's fixed costs are flat out higher.

[dan40]

Maybe they can find a ship-builder as naiive as the stock market, where RCL stock has rebounded from $6 a share to the high forties because of the Oasis.

 

Seriously...

 

CCL Qtr. ended 8/31/2010 NET income $1,303,000,000.00 [$1 Billion, 300 million.]

 

RCL Qtr. ended 10/30/2010 NET income $356,767,000.00 [$357 million.]

 

Just about a 1 BILLION dollar difference in 1 Quarter.

 

That is NOT an unusual result. Most YEARS, CCL's net income is about the same as RCL's total gross receipts.

 

Stock charts for 1 year look like duplicates.

[Schplinky]

Not at all. It's called economies of scale. Carnival's ships cost less per berth than RCCL's. At the same cruise price, Carnival would be stealing. Carnival's cookie cutter design makes it less expensive to build and a lot cheaper to maintain.

 

As for hard to pay for, Carnival basically pays cash for ships and RCCL is in hock up to it's eyeballs. There is also interest on all those loans. RCCL's fixed costs are flat out higher.

 

 

So you think that Carnival could get more per cabin but doesn't? Don't you think their shareholders would not mind?

[Schplinky]

CCL Qtr. ended 8/31/2010 NET income $1,303,000,000.00 [$1 Billion, 300 million.]

 

RCL Qtr. ended 10/30/2010 NET income $356,767,000.00 [$357 million.]

 

Just about a 1 BILLION dollar difference in 1 Quarter.

 

That is NOT an unusual result. Most YEARS, CCL's net income is about the same as RCL's total gross receipts.

 

Stock charts for 1 year look like duplicates.

 

 

Oh, I don't doubt that. CCL is a massively larger company with many, many more ships. It's stocks, on the other hand, trade for about the same as RCL. Let's compare apples to apples.

[Jtd724]

CCL Qtr. ended 8/31/2010 NET income $1,303,000,000.00 [$1 Billion, 300 million.]

 

RCL Qtr. ended 10/30/2010 NET income $356,767,000.00 [$357 million.]

 

Just about a 1 BILLION dollar difference in 1 Quarter.

 

That is NOT an unusual result. Most YEARS, CCL's net income is about the same as RCL's total gross receipts.

 

Stock charts for 1 year look like duplicates.

 

Carnival owns how many lines? and RCCL owns 3. I think I know why they make more money, they have probably what 20 or 30 more ships? Costa, Princess, Carnival, Cunard? What else am I missing?

[salty dingo]

I've noticed there are two main types of cruisers:

• Those who like travel, like the concept of being at sea, and like to sea foreign ports. Food and entertainment are secondary.
  

• Those who like entertainment and food a lot more than the sea, travel, and foreign ports.
  

I'm the first type, but am not saying one type is better than the other. It's just personal preference.

 

What I AM saying is that the cruise lines had better choose which type of passenger they want to serve and then tailor the ship to that type. Different ships can serve different types of cruiser.

 

The "one-ship-size-fits-all" concept just will not work in cruising!

[Schplinky]

Carnival owns how many lines? and RCCL owns 3. I think I know why they make more money, they have probably what 20 or 30 more ships? Costa, Princess, Carnival, Cunard? What else am I missing?

 

 

Holland America, P&O, AIDA (which I didn't know about until I looked it up) and Seaborn.

 

It's very hard to know how Carnival Cruise Line is doing, apart from Carnival Corp, except to look at the sort of fares they are able to command for similar ships, unless you think they purposefully keep the prices down to be "fair."

[Sargent_Schultz]

So you think that Carnival could get more per cabin but doesn't? Don't you think their shareholders would not mind?

 

CCL doesn't have to. Shareholders like full ships. They also like the dividend that CCL reinstated a while ago and recently increased by more than double.

 

RCCL is struggling under massive debt and has yet to reinstate the dividend.

[Jtd724]

Holland America, P&O, AIDA (which I didn't know about until I looked it up) and Seaborn.

 

It's very hard to know how Carnival Cruise Line is doing, apart from Carnival Corp.

 

Thanks. Interesting tidbit that the stocks trade for almost the same amount of money but yet RCCL is a much smaller company.

[Jtd724]

CCL doesn't have to. Shareholders like full ships. They also like the dividend that CCL reinstated a while ago and recently increased by more than double.

 

RCCL is struggling under massive debt and has yet to reinstate the dividend.

 

Right, Carnival they like full ships, in order to do that they cant sell those rooms at a higher price. RCCL can. But even so some fellow CCL cruisers posted they found some RCCL cruises cheaper.

[Schplinky]

CCL doesn't have to. Shareholders like full ships. They also like the dividend that CCL reinstated a while ago and recently increased by more than double.

 

You're out of your mind if you think shareholders would be fine with CCL keeping prices lower than they could be.

[Sargent_Schultz]

 

What I AM saying is that the cruise lines had better choose which type of passenger they want to serve and then tailor the ship to that type. Different ships can serve different types of cruiser.

 

The "one-ship-size-fits-all" concept just will not work in cruising!

 

Of course it does. Carnival has a mass market model that appeals to everyone. It may not be perfect for everyone, but it is good enough. RCCL on the other hand, depends on gimmicks to get people on the ship, and then tries to keep them on the ship to spend even more money.

 

Carnival's basic common approach allows personnel and passengers to go from one ship to another without massive retraining. They know what to expect and Carnival delivers it.

[salty dingo]

You're out of your mind if you think shareholders would be fine with CCL keeping prices lower than they could be.

Shareholders don't care about fares... they care about the stock price.

 

Fares depend on supply and demand for cruises, and what the competition does. Stock prices depend on a whole lot of other factors.

[Schplinky]

Of course it does. Carnival has a mass market model that appeals to everyone. It may not be perfect for everyone, but it is good enough. RCCL on the other hand, depends on gimmicks to get people on the ship, and then tries to keep them on the ship to spend even more money.

 

Carnival's basic common approach allows personnel and passengers to go from one ship to another without massive retraining. They know what to expect and Carnival delivers it.

 

Have you ever read the other boards like the Cunard board, the Holland America Board or even the NCL board? They'd be very surprised by your pronouncement.

[Sargent_Schultz]

You're out of your mind if you think shareholders would be fine with CCL keeping prices lower than they could be.

 

Shareholders like money and Carnival makes lots of it without a lot of risk. They don't like risk and RCCL takes lots of risks and has lots of debt.

[salty dingo]

RCCL on the other hand, depends on gimmicks to get people on the ship, and then tries to keep them on the ship to spend even more money.

If you have not noticed, Carnival uses the same gimmics.

[Jtd724]

Of course it does. Carnival has a mass market model that appeals to everyone. It may not be perfect for everyone, but it is good enough. RCCL on the other hand, depends on gimmicks to get people on the ship, and then tries to keep them on the ship to spend even more money.

 

Carnival's basic common approach allows personnel and passengers to go from one ship to another without massive retraining. They know what to expect and Carnival delivers it.

 

gimmicks? as in options? I always laugh when people say more options are stupid. We should all just vacation at Motel 8 then. They have a pool, some with waterslide. That would work for you then right? Usually a bar is across the street so that pretty much has all ya need Sarge. Options? Sarge dont need no options!

[Schplinky]

Shareholders don't care about fares... they care about the stock price.

 

Fares depend on supply and demand for cruises, and what the competition does. Stock prices depend on a whole lot of other factors.

 

Stock prices depend on what the markets think the future holds for a company and how the company is managing its assets. A part of that is how profitable a company has and whether it has a sound plan for the future. That would include whether the line is getting all the revenue it could in light of the expenses it has so yes, the stockholders do care VERY much about shares as much as they care about expenses.

[Schplinky]

Shareholders like money and Carnival makes lots of it without a lot of risk. They don't like risk and RCCL takes lots of risks and has lots of debt.

 

 

Great analysis, except that RCL closed at $45.55 on Friday while CCL closed at 44.61. Seems pretty close to me.

 

I guess you know more than the stock market.

[Sargent_Schultz]

If you have not noticed, Carnival uses the same gimmics.

 

I've yet to see a rock wall on Carnival.

 

gimmicks? as in options? I always laugh when people say more options are stupid. We should all just vacation at Motel 8 then. They have a pool, some with waterslide. That would work for you then right? Usually a bar is across the street so that pretty much has all ya need Sarge. Options? Sarge dont need no options!

 

Now you're just being silly and rude.

[Jtd724]

Great analysis, except that RCL closed at $45.55 on Friday while CCL closed at 44.61. Seems pretty close to me.

 

I guess you know more than the stock market.

 

One would think with all the cruise lines Carnival owns as compared to RCCL they would be way ahead on that. Thats very impressive on RCCL's part.

[Sargent_Schultz]

Great analysis, except that RCL closed at $45.55 on Friday while CCL closed at 44.61. Seems pretty close to me.

 

I guess you know more than the stock market.

 

There is no rhyme or reason behind stock prices these days. It certainly doesn't follow fundamentals. No corporation with competent management runs the company to inflate the stock price.

 

Looking at market cap:

 

CCL - Market Cap:35.24B

RCL - Market Cap: 9.80B

 

big difference - HUGE.

[Schplinky]

There is no rhyme or reason behind stock prices these days. It certainly doesn't follow fundamentals. No corporation with competent management runs the company to inflate the stock price.

 

Looking at market cap:

 

CCL - Market Cap:35.24B

RCL - Market Cap: 9.80B

 

big difference - HUGE.

 

 

Yes, it reflects the relative size of the companies.

 

You're on your own Sarge, I have dinner to eat. Enjoy agreeing with yourself and I hope you have a nice weekend, you old coot.

[Jtd724]

There is no rhyme or reason behind stock prices these days. It certainly doesn't follow fundamentals. No corporation with competent management runs the company to inflate the stock price.

 

Looking at market cap:

 

CCL - Market Cap:35.24B

RCL - Market Cap: 9.80B

 

big difference - HUGE.

 

Look at the size of the 2 companies. CCL is huuuuuuuuuge compared to RCCL. So yeah that market cap looks right.