Any weather predictions for summer sailings?

[star1765]

After reading the reports from last July sailings out of NYC, (horrible weather). I am keeping my fingers crossed! I know it's to far out but, I was wondering how accurate the Almanac is? Haven't read that yet either.

[L2J]

After reading the reports from last July sailings out of NYC, (horrible weather). I am keeping my fingers crossed! I know it's to far out but, I was wondering how accurate the Almanac is? Haven't read that yet either.

 

The weather is always a crap shoot. Might as well get the three wise men and have them start tossing chicken bones.

[WeatherGeek]

I wouldn't advise trusting the almanac, but that's just me.

[halos]

....pray your ever-lovin head off! :D

...although, Liv's idea did sound interesting.... ;)

[kjunea]

The professor from Colorado that usually makes his hurricane predictions said there would be 13 named storms, with 3-5 hitting the US as very large storms. Looks like fun for everyone!!

 

June

[halos]

Looks like fun for everyone!!

 

June

 

:eek:

I know you're not supposed to shoot the messenger, but..... ;)

[sgriff17]

Summer = HOT

 

 

duh

[halos]

We did a Bahama cruise the third week of June...the weather was absolute heaven...seas calm as can be..not too hot, but ship was mobbed.... :eek:

[sea_u_onboard]

Here's a couple of interesting sites.....

http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=2020&z=3&p=

 

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

Also from - http://www.tomtree.com/hpred.html

 

Estimates For 2005 : (as of December 3, 2004)

6 Hurricanes (average is 5.9)

11 Named Storms (average is 9.6)

55 Named Storm Days (average is 49.1)

25 Hurricane Days (average is 24.5)

3 Intense Hurricanes (Category 3-4-5) (average is 2.3)

6 Intense Hurricane Days (average is 5.0)

Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) of 100 (average is 71)

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 115

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABSTRACTInformation obtained through November 2004 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2005 will have about 6 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 11 named storms (average is 9.6), 55 named storm days (average is 49), 25 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3), and 6 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 30 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2004 to be about 115 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data. Both statistical and analog predictors have been utilized. These include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric QBO. The influence of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not foresee a major El Niño event for the 2005 season.

Official 2005 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season :

JUNE 1st TO NOVEMBER 30th

[phlydude]

OK - I don't mean to be beligerent so don't get mad...

 

BUT

 

If your local weather guy can't predict the weather yesterday for tomorrow accurately, how can anyone, including the Almanac people, predict what weather is going to occur a year in advance?

 

July in NYC = 90°+ F with high humidity = chance for afternoon thunderstorms

 

Caribbean = Hot and humid with chance of tropical rain storms at any time

Hurricanes in July aren't too strong of a possibility (as the Atlantic hasn't heated up to Hurricane perfect temps) but don't rule them out either.

 

Best thing to do is check out weather.com to try to determine the forecast for a week out a week before you leave and check it every day. Will it be accurate, absolutely not as it will change a thousand times in some way shape or form a week before and during your cruise.

[L2J]

You could also find the "official" website for each port of call. Most of them have a "weather" table of sorts that will give average highs/lows and rainfall.

[halos]

You could also find the "official" website for each port of call. Most of them have a "weather" table of sorts that will give average highs/lows and rainfall.

 

I still prefer the idea of tossing chicken bones at wise men. :D

[Chucksta63]

Here is the weather forcast you wanted.

Haze in the morning breaking into sunshine with partical clouds.

June 12 rain all day! then sun the following day.

June 24 Severe storm with 21 ft. waves and rain.

Then sunny.

Best I can do for you. ;)

[corina27]

I still prefer the idea of tossing chicken bones at wise men. :D

Where are we going to get three wise men?

(just couldn't resist):)

[L2J]

I still prefer the idea of tossing chicken bones at wise men. :D

 

No silly that's not tossing those at them, it's them sitting in a circle underneath a full moon tossing the chicken bones.

[halos]

No silly that's not tossing those at them, it's them sitting in a circle underneath a full moon tossing the chicken bones.

 

Dang!

With me bein a Voodoo priestess and all, ya think I'da known that! :rolleyes:

...well, I DO enjoy a full moon....but it will not be the same if I can't throw bones at wise men. :(

[corina27]

Dang!

With me bein a Voodoo priestess and all, ya think I'da known that! :rolleyes:

Now the truth comes out!!:D

[tef43]

With apologies to Al Sleet:

 

Tonight's forecast: DARK. Continued Dark throughout the night, turning to Partly Light in the morning.

[halos]

Now the truth comes out!!:D

 

shhhh...it's a secret..... :p

[halos]

With apologies to Al Sleet:

 

Tonight's forecast: DARK. Continued Dark throughout the night, turning to Partly Light in the morning.

 

 

:mad: I'm not happy with that forecast Tef!

make up another one!

[corina27]

whats with the partly light?

Is there something your not telling us?

[L2J]

Dang!

With me bein a Voodoo priestess and all, ya think I'da known that! :rolleyes:

...well, I DO enjoy a full moon....but it will not be the same if I can't throw bones at wise men. :(

 

You'd have thunk it :p

 

(_|_) don't worry if you ask nice enough maybe one of the old geezers will let you toss his bone.

[halos]

whats with the partly light?

Is there something your not telling us?

 

he's only got one eye open... :p

[corina27]

You'd have thunk it :p

 

(_|_) don't worry if you ask nice enough maybe one of the old geezers will let you toss his bone.

We may need to start a whole new thread for that.:cool:

[halos]

You'd have thunk it :p

 

(_|_) don't worry if you ask nice enough maybe one of the old geezers will let you toss his bone.

 

ROFLMAOPMP!!!!!

I'd prefer to toss a younger man's bone if it's all the same to you. :p