Norovirus: Spread Math, not Hype!

[TPKeller]

Newsies will be newsies. Always looking for the big headline.

 

According to the CDC, last year only about 1,300 passengers and crew reported illness from Norovirus, out of over TWENTY MILLION passengers (not counting crew)!

 

Math is your friend. That's less than 1 out of 15,000 people who cruise will get sick. No normal person has 15,000 acquaintances in their everyday life, yet we all know a handful of people who get the "stomach flu" each year.

 

That means you are LESS LIKELY to get sick ON A CRUISE than you would be if you stayed home and ran through your normal daily routines!

 

Don't buy the hype... it's a contagious disease every bit as much as the virus.

 

Theron

[1198r]

newsies will be newsies. Always looking for the big headline.

 

according to the cdc, last year only about 1,300 passengers and crew reported illness from norovirus, out of over twenty million passengers (not counting crew)!

 

Math is your friend. That's less than 1 out of 15,000 people who cruise will get sick. No normal person has 15,000 acquaintances in their everyday life, yet we all know a handful of people who get the "stomach flu" each year.

 

That means you are less likely to get sick on a cruise than you would be if you stayed home and ran through your normal daily routines!

 

Don't buy the hype... It's a contagious disease every bit as much as the virus.

 

Theron

 

 

like! :)

[NJcruisenewbie]

Newsies will be newsies. Always looking for the big headline.

 

According to the CDC, last year only about 1,300 passengers and crew reported illness from Norovirus, out of over TWENTY MILLION passengers (not counting crew)!

 

Math is your friend. That's less than 1 out of 15,000 people who cruise will get sick. No normal person has 15,000 acquaintances in their everyday life, yet we all know a handful of people who get the "stomach flu" each year.

 

That means you are LESS LIKELY to get sick ON A CRUISE than you would be if you stayed home and ran through your normal daily routines!

 

Don't buy the hype... it's a contagious disease every bit as much as the virus.

 

Theron

 

First, there isn't any such thing as the stomach flu. Second, there are plenty of GI illnesses that aren't noro. My dd had a little bug on our last cruise. We kept her in the cabin for a day or so and told our attendant. It was similar to bugs she's gotten at home. Third, I'm not sure the point you're trying to make - noro is a virus as is influenza (the flu).

[PuterMonkey]

Fault in the logic: The CDC statistic is most likely confirmed norovirus cases. The 'stomach flu' as a phrase is usually used for any general GI-related bug.

 

However I agree completely with your general point. It's like people being terrified to fly even though the odds of actually dying in a plane crash are next to nil.

[S.A.M.J.R.]

Of course, an outbreak of hundreds of people getting sick on a cruise ship is unusual (as would be a plane crash). Unusual = "news"

Many people have been talking about this outbreak (look at all the threads related to it on CC). Interest = "news"

[SpartacusMD]

I agree with the general point about the hype, but a few corrections:

 

As others have stated there is no such thing as the stomach flu. The bugs most commonly seen on cruises are the norovirus which causes excessive watery diarrhea and vomiting and legionella which is a bacteria that causes similar symptoms that might sometimes become a respiratory infection as well. Norovirus doesn't survive long outside the body therefore someone always brings it on the ship, and believe me those people know they aren't ell because norovirus starts working on you within 6 hours of infection and starts to get very bad 24 hours after the infection. so most people pretty much lie when checking in about any "symptoms."

 

Legionella on the other hand usually lives in damp places like old AC units and other water sources-unlikely to have been brought on board.

 

There are other bugs but when people say "the flu" they usually are referring to the common cold which is a self limiting disease. The real "flu" (influenza) is actually a much more serious disease, and those people are obviously sick and would not be let on board.

 

In short: more than alcohol sanitizers, and gloves, and anything else the number one component to stop the spread of infection is washing your hands with soap and water. People who use the bathroom or wipe their nose with their hands and then just leave without washing are disgusting and are the usual culprits.

Edited January 31, 2014 by SpartacusMD

[mbjboyle]

the number one component to stop the spread of infection is washing your hands with soap and water. People who use the bathroom or wipe their nose with their hands and then just leave without washing are disgusting and are the usual culprits.

 

Agree... A few years ago a science teacher and I collaborated on a project. Very simple = students tested each other's hands. Students were divided into 2 groups. Both groups were instructed to touch various surfaces within the classroom. Next, Group A washed their hands in warm water and with soap for 2 minutes. Group B did not wash. The student's hands were plated, labeled, and incubated for 24 hours.

 

 

 

 

I think all these students continue to wash their hands thoroughly...:D:D

[Pomperaugrr]

As to spreading hype, our local ABC Affilliate (WTNH Channel 8) ran a headline story last night, showing how hype is more important than facts. They showed the Royal Caribbean logo and said that "A second Royal Caribbean Ship is ending its cruise early due to an outbreak of noro virus. The Royal Caribbean "Princess" was returning to port early." They then showed a photo of a Princess Cruise line ship, but kept saying it was Royal Caribbean. Hype sells commercial time, facts apparently do not, since it was a Princess ship, not a second Royal Caribbean ship. They are different companies folks!!!

 

Who cares if the story is accurate, just have a concerned look on the talking head's face, while she looks into the camera, with ominous music playing and flash a headline: "Cruise Disaster!"

 

I think I actually felt the vibrations from Walter Cronkite rolling over in his grave! ;)

 

Eric

Edited January 31, 2014 by Pomperaugrr

[DrD]

As I tell my kids, news is news because it's unusual.

 

You never see "72 year old man dies of heart attack," or "noro outbreak in nursing home," or "5 year old chokes on toy."

 

The best way to know you don't have to worry about something is if it's in the news.

[TubbyMrT]

Humans behave illogical at times. Perhaps most of the time.

[mbjboyle]

You never see "72 year old man dies of heart attack," or "noro outbreak in nursing home," or "5 year old chokes on toy."

 

The best way to know you don't have to worry about something is if it's in the news.

 

They NEVER report when planes LAND safely EVERYDAY...:D:D

[TPKeller]

Ok, first, some of y'all need to lighten up a little! :p

 

There very much IS a "thing" called "stomach flu." If there wasn't then you wouldn't know what I meant when I used the phrase.

 

Please notice I use quotation marks around the phrase. I know very well that what is commonly referred to as "stomach flu" is not influenza, and is caused by a multitude of different germs. Wow.

 

My post was not meant to be a medical treatise on the disease, and for those who can't figure it out, the point is that the news is more hype than significant information, and you are more likely to get sick staying at home and going to work - or school - or the local Walmart than you are by going on a cruise. (However, keep reading for a significant update!)

 

In fact, I found some more information today with some more clearly defined numbers:

 

According to this publication, the industry projected about 17.6 million people would cruise from North America during 2013.

 

According to this news story, the CDC reports somewhere around 19 to 21 million people suffer from Norovirus annually.

 

Google tells us that the population of the United States is about 314 million people.

 

We'll stick with the first number I listed from the CDC, that 1,300 people were reported ill from Norovirus on cruises last year.

 

Lets crunch all these numbers and see what comes out.

 

Go on a cruise:

1,300 out of 17.6 million were affected by Norovirus, that's 1 in 13,538.

 

Stay at home:

21 million out of 314 million were affected by Norovirus, that's 1 in about 14.9.

13,538 / 14.9 = 908! It would seem to indicate that you are over 900 times more likely to catch the bug at home than if you go on a cruise.

 

Here's the significant update: What's the flaw here? Time! You're only on a cruise for a short time, compared to being at home all year long.

 

So to sort of even it out, let's assume (I have no idea what the real number is) that of all the cruises from North America, they average out to be 6 days... most are 7, some are longer, some are shorter... that's 365 / 6 or about 60 cruises per year.

 

What do you know! If you divide 908 by 60, it comes out to 15.1, which is nearly identical to the same number you would get if you stayed home!

 

This is not rigorously scientific, but the conclusion makes some sense: There really is no statistical difference in the odds of catching a Norovirus whether you stay at home or go on a cruise!

 

For the uptight among us... this was merely an entertaining exercise in numbers... Chill. :)

 

Theron

[lacruiser]

Theron, they always say that you can make statistics prove any theory, but I really enjoyed yours! :D

[TPKeller]

Theron, they always say that you can make statistics prove any theory, but I really enjoyed yours! :D

Absolutely!

 

:)

 

Theron

[luvscruising2007]

OP thank you for taking time to do the numbers.

And you are right about the news, it is hype they are interested in not necessarily the whole truth.

[truffles2]

Theron, you know all those people got sick because they had a ranger cookie deficiency!:D

[TPKeller]

Theron, you know all those people got sick because they had a ranger cookie deficiency!:D

Ha ha, perhaps so! Bad enough to be sick on a cruise but to not be able to eat those cookies... awful!!

 

Theron

[goleta]

When one pays 100s to 1000s for a cruise and gets sick with noro, it is a lot different than staying home and getting it for free. Just another way to look at it.

Edited February 1, 2014 by goleta
spelling error.

[antsnanny]

As to spreading hype, our local ABC Affilliate (WTNH Channel 8) ran a headline story last night, showing how hype is more important than facts. They showed the Royal Caribbean logo and said that "A second Royal Caribbean Ship is ending its cruise early due to an outbreak of noro virus. The Royal Caribbean "Princess" was returning to port early." They then showed a photo of a Princess Cruise line ship, but kept saying it was Royal Caribbean. Hype sells commercial time, facts apparently do not, since it was a Princess ship, not a second Royal Caribbean ship. They are different companies folks!!!

 

Who cares if the story is accurate, just have a concerned look on the talking head's face, while she looks into the camera, with ominous music playing and flash a headline: "Cruise Disaster!"

 

I think I actually felt the vibrations from Walter Cronkite rolling over in his grave! ;)

 

Eric

 

GREAT POST.... Tonight they showed the NCL Breakaway while talking about the Explorer. Not surprising to me, the media hasn't been telling us the truth for a long time.

[sblair]

GREAT POST.... Tonight they showed the NCL Breakaway while talking about the Explorer. Not surprising to me, the media hasn't been telling us the truth for a long time.

 

Depending on the size of your market, the local media can be complete amateurs. I don't consider local media as part of "The Media" when making "the media" claims. I'm in a decent size market in Austin, Tx and the amateurishness and constant mistakes of the local media drive me nuts. The weather guys are the only ones worth a crap. For real news, I watch the national news coverage. It's rare they make stupid mistakes like that on national coverage.

[antsnanny]

Depending on the size of your market, the local media can be complete amateurs. I don't consider local media as part of "The Media" when making "the media" claims. I'm in a decent size market in Austin, Tx and the amateurishness and constant mistakes of the local media drive me nuts. The weather guys are the only ones worth a crap. For real news, I watch the national news coverage. It's rare they make stupid mistakes like that on national coverage.

 

You'll like this one. My brother and sister in law were on the NCL Star the week of the outbreak of Noro. When they were getting off the ship, the media approached them and asked them about the conditions onboard. They said, "we really don't know anything" The media replied " RUMOR WILL DO"

[Arizona Cruz Chic]

Theron, I love your voice of reason! Thank you!!

 

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