spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #76 Share Posted May 27, 2018 It appears that Alberto is now transitioning from cold core to warm core, from subtropical to tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmspls72 Posted May 27, 2018 #77 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Ok, this thing is moving ENE. I’m starting to think Tallahassee to Tampa might get the center (but since this is mostly a rain event, it might not really matter who gets the center because everyone is going to get rain) It is predict to turn back toward mobile before making landfall I hope it keeps heading east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmspls72 Posted May 27, 2018 #78 Share Posted May 27, 2018 If they cancel the cruise, you will get a refund. If the ship is on track to sail, they expect you to be there. How is the weather where you are now? You might luck out if this stalls a bit and goes farther east. I’m an hour from mobile right in the center of its path. I figuared I was not going to get a refund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #79 Share Posted May 27, 2018 We will know more tomorrow. I hope it works out for you. I board Dream about 1:30 to 2:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #80 Share Posted May 27, 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270256 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position. Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35 kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative. In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h. There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken over land through the remainder of the forecast period. For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward, although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make landfall near the 48 h point. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday and will continue into next week. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within of the tropical storm warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven Goodnight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocut Posted May 27, 2018 #81 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Headed to Miami now. I will be there about 4pm. Wish us luck Sent from my iPhone using Forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #82 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Good luck! I’ll be on Dream around 2. I just woke up so am about to have coffee and check the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #83 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #84 Share Posted May 27, 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 271438 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 The satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved markedly over the past 12 hours or so. Deep convection has increased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around the western and northwestern portions of the storm and the circulation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated that the pressure has fallen to 994 mb. The aircraft has also reported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the northwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection is located. Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that area, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. With deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller radius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its transition to a tropical cyclone. The reconnaissance aircraft data also indicate that a shallow warm core is present. It is likely that Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today or tonight. As this transition occurs, some additional strengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes. However, dry mid- level air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation could slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the coast. The initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due to the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone should move generally northward today, then turn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The timing and location of landfall of the center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs. The latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it makes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner and farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS. The NHC forecast is near the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous advisory. Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing and location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread northward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida today. The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will then spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 27.1N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #85 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Nothing going on in New Orleans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsADryHumor Posted May 27, 2018 #86 Share Posted May 27, 2018 How goes it, spleenstomper? It's pretty calm over here in the Panhandle. People bought all the breadmilk for a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #87 Share Posted May 27, 2018 How goes it, spleenstomper? It's pretty calm over here in the Panhandle. People bought all the breadmilk for a little rain. We are fine! I think we are going faster than I remember but I can’t be sure. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 27, 2018 Author #88 Share Posted May 27, 2018 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banzaii Posted May 27, 2018 #89 Share Posted May 27, 2018 :-( I thought this was going to be a "Star Wars" thread.:-( Mmmm thought the same I did! Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsADryHumor Posted May 28, 2018 #90 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Stay safe, and have fun! Looks like Alberto took a lil' turn towards us, so hopefully that will mean sooner to sunshine for you and the rest of the Dream! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleenstomper Posted May 28, 2018 Author #91 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Thanks!! We are between Buras, Louisiana and Venice on the river Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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