Tropical Storm Bonnie 5 am Tue Aug 10

[TVMet]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

 

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF

OF MEXICO...

 

INTERESTS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

 

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 390

MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

 

BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A REDUCTION

IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

BONNIE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD ONLY UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS

1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...23.6 N... 90.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

 

IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE REMAINS A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...WITH A SMALL CDO...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND BANDING

THAT IS LIMITED BUT INCREASING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN

RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BONNIE SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS

MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. THE CREW REPORTED A 10

MILE WIDE EYE...ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN A SYSTEM OF THIS INTENSITY.

THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 49 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE

SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 43 KT. BASED ON THESE

DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.

 

SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS BONNIE ARE PRONE TO RAPID CHANGES IN

INTENSITY...EITHER UP OR DOWN. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT

WOULD ARGUE FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FIRST...ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY

SHEAR...IT SHOULD BE MOVING UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE

CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. SECOND...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BONNIE

OVER OR VERY NEAR A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL

GULF. A MITIGATING FACTOR WOULD BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE

NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS

MODELS MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFS DOES NOT

SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT IN FACT BARELY ACKNOWLEDGES BONNIE'S

EXISTENCE DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CALLS FOR BONNIE

TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL

BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE GFDL

GUIDANCE.

 

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7...SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK. MOST OF THE 3-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS

BONNIE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A

MID-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR

THE FIRST 24 HOURS...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IS IN BEST

AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

 

THE NOAA G-IV JET WILL CONDUCT A MISSION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF

BONNIE THIS EVENING TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL CONDITION FOR THE

NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.6N 90.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 90.7W 50 KT

24HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 90.7W 55 KT

36HR VT 11/1800Z 26.6N 89.8W 60 KT

48HR VT 12/0600Z 28.0N 88.0W 65 KT

72HR VT 13/0600Z 33.5N 81.0W 25 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 14/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0204W+GIF/100858W.gif

[TVMet]

Tropical Storm Bonnie Probabilities Number 9

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

4 Am Cdt Tue Aug 10 2004

 

Probabilities For Guidance In Hurricane Protection

Planning By Government And Disaster Officials

 

At 4 Am Cdt...0900z...the Center Of Bonnie Was Located Near

Latitude 23.6 North...longitude 90.1 West

 

Chances Of Center Of The Storm Passing Within 65 Nautical Miles

Of Listed Locations Through 1am Cdt Fri Aug 13 2004

 

Location A B C D E Location A B C D E

 

25.5n 90.7w 38 1 X X 39 Tampa Fl X X 1 11 12

26.6n 89.8w 17 8 1 X 26 Cedar Key Fl X X 1 14 15

28.0n 88.0w X 11 10 1 22 St Marks Fl X X 2 16 18

Mygf 266n 787w X X X 2 2 Apalachicola Fl X X 6 13 19

Marathon Fl X X X 2 2 Panama City Fl X X 7 13 20

Miami Fl X X X 3 3 Pensacola Fl X X 11 9 20

W Palm Beach Fl X X X 5 5 Mobile Al X X 12 8 20

Ft Pierce Fl X X X 7 7 Gulfport Ms X 1 14 5 20

Cocoa Beach Fl X X X 9 9 Buras La X 7 12 2 21

Daytona Beach Fl X X X 11 11 New Orleans La X 4 12 3 19

Jacksonville Fl X X X 14 14 New Iberia La X 4 9 2 15

Savannah Ga X X X 14 14 Port Arthur Tx X 1 5 1 7

Charleston Sc X X X 12 12 Galveston Tx X 1 3 1 5

Myrtle Beach Sc X X X 10 10 Freeport Tx X 1 2 X 3

Wilmington Nc X X X 7 7 Gulf 29n 85w X X 7 11 18

Morehead City Nc X X X 5 5 Gulf 29n 87w X 2 14 5 21

Cape Hatteras Nc X X X 3 3 Gulf 28n 89w 1 15 6 1 23

Norfolk Va X X X 3 3 Gulf 28n 91w 1 18 3 X 22

Key West Fl X X X 3 3 Gulf 28n 93w X 12 3 X 15

Marco Island Fl X X X 6 6 Gulf 28n 95w X 3 2 X 5

Ft Myers Fl X X 1 7 8 Gulf 27n 96w X 1 1 X 2

Venice Fl X X 1 10 11

 

Column Definition Probabilities In Percent

A Is Probability From Now To 1am Wed

Following Are Additional Probabilities

B From 1am Wed To 1pm Wed

C From 1pm Wed To 1am Thu

D From 1am Thu To 1am Fri

E Is Total Probability From Now To 1am Fri

X Means Less Than One Percent

 

Forecaster Franklin