Tropical Storm Bonnie 5 pm Tue Aug 10

[TVMet]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 11

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

 

...BONNIE NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

 

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS.

 

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST OR ABOUT

315 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

 

BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO

THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WHILE BONNIE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

BONNIE REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 90.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 10 PM CDT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

Forecast Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0204W+GIF/101453W.gif

Satellite

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

[TVMet]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

 

RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE BONNIE HAS MAINTAINED A

TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE

CENTRAL CONVECTION. SHIP H3GQ REPORTED 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS

ABOUT 40 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. BASED ON THIS REPORT AND A

RECON REPORTED PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY

BEING DECREASED TO 45 KT.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/05. THE LAST TWO RECON POSITIONS

INDICATE BONNIE HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG EXPECTED TURN TO THE

NORTH THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SUBSEQUENT

SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THIS MOTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT

EAST OF DUE NORTH MOTION. THIS NEW MOTION IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT

OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS

JUST AN EXTENSION AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BONNIE

SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24-30

HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.

 

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHICH CAN

RESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. BONNIE MAY BE GOING THROUGH

ONE OF THOSE TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS NOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS

PREDICATED ON DEEP CONVECTION RETURNING WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12

HOURS. ARGUMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER

LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IS...THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTER

BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE EXPECTED TO

MOVE INTO A WEAK OR EVEN NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN 12-24 HOURS...VERY

WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE

MAXIMUM PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL

SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING...WHICH MAY CAP THE INTENSITY

TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE

SAME AS THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS

AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS.

 

WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL

AREAS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.7N 90.5W 45 KT

12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 90.4W 55 KT

24HR VT 11/1800Z 26.8N 89.5W 65 KT

36HR VT 12/0600Z 28.5N 87.5W 70 KT

48HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 84.0W 50 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 13/1800Z 37.0N 76.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 14/1800Z 53.5N 68.5W 30 KT...Extratropical

120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY Frontal Zone