Tropical Storm Charley 5 am Wed Aug 11

[TVMet]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

 

...CHARLEY APPROACHING JAMAICA...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

ISSUED...

 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA

KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS

ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

JAMAICA.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST

PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD

INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

 

TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR

PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT

160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

 

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH

...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

SO.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

 

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING

WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

 

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH

CHARLEY.

 

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 74.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

 

Track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/110853W.gif

 

Satellite

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

[TVMet]

TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

 

CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE

PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS

EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED

ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.

 

THE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT

295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE

PASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN

PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24

HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND

EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE

EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE

PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER

MOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON

DAYS THREE AND FOUR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN

BY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

 

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO

REASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN

BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS

AND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN

LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING

HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH

SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE

WATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK.

 

SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF

THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM

DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 74.7W 55 KT

12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.1N 77.3W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA

24HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 80.0W 65 KT

36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.3N 81.8W 70 KT...OVER CUBA

48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 82.5W 75 KT

72HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 79.5W 55 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 15/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 16/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 35 KT...Extratropical