TVMet Posted August 11, 2004 #1 Share Posted August 11, 2004 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 ...CHARLEY APPROACHING JAMAICA...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE. TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 74.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB Track http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/110853W.gif Satellite http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted August 11, 2004 Author #2 Share Posted August 11, 2004 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER MOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON DAYS THREE AND FOUR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO REASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE WATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK. SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 74.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.1N 77.3W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA 24HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 80.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.3N 81.8W 70 KT...OVER CUBA 48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 82.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 79.5W 55 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 35 KT...Extratropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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