Tropical Strom Alvin

[CoachTerry14]

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007

0900 UTC SUN MAY 27 2007

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.2W AT 27/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.2W AT 27/0900Z

AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.0W

 

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.8N 111.8W

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.8N 112.6W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.8N 113.4W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.8N 114.2W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.8N 116.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.

34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 12.8N 118.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

 

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 12.8N 120.5W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 111.2W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

 

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE