Tropical Depression Four

[JerseyJim2]

A new tropical storm may be brewing behind hurricanes Bonnie and Charley.

 

It is Tropical Depression 4 and was identified this morning. It is not yet a storm but if it stays in warmer waters south may become more organized. If it is upgraded to a storm, it will be named "Danielle". Here is the current projected path:

 

 

We will know more after the weekend.

 

Jim

[flypaper]

Hit my place in Venice FL head on...a week from today I head to Miami to jump on Triumph. I hope TD #4 heads north!!! not into the gulf.

[NJsharon]

Uh-oh! Sure will be watching that one.

 

Heh, I don't mind stopping at Bermuda instead of Port Canaveral... yah know, if we reeeally need to, then I won't kick up a fuss. ;)

[Lefty1]

please keep us posted on danielle - i am leaving on miracle 8/21 from nyc heading to nassau - keep us posted.

[shungirl]

Please no!! I am getting married on the beach next Saturday in Destin, then going on the Conquest!! But if it happens, it happens :)

[Stircrzy]

Best wishes, shungirl...I know you must have alternative plans...just in case.

 

Let's all hope #4 fizzles out. I leave Galveston on the 29th on the Elation...and Florida surely can't stand anymore of this stuff.

[Dannzzigg]

Anyone have an idea on how long it takes these things to cross the Atlantic? I'm leaving out of Tampa on the 29th and I'm wondering if #4/Danielle will be there to see us off?

[hstrybuf]

Boy these things are popping up one right after the other! Let's hope TD 4 stays away from the coasts. I think they've had enough for one season.

[CCLNCLRCICRUISER]

They just keep on forming.:eek:

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT

910 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH

BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...AT 18Z...AND MUCH IMPROVED

BANDING FEATURES SINCE THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN

ALL QUADRANTS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED AT

A RATHER LOW LATITUDE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO OCCUR...BUT

IT IS IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION THAT SPAWNED NOW MAJOR HURRICANE

CHARLEY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS

EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ON THE CYCLONE

MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND

THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. WHILE THE GFDL MODEL MAKES A

SHARP 30-40 DEGREE RIGHT TURN INITIALLY...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION AFTER 12 HOURS APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE

COULD PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A

TROPICAL STORM AND BE NEAR JAMAICA IN 120 HOURS AS A HURRICANE.

 

THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS SHOW RATHER ROBUST DEVELOPMENT

FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE GFDL MAKES THE CYCLONE A 75-KT

HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS AND THEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LEVELS OFF THE

INTENSITY AFTER THAT. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP

STEADILY TO 93 KT IN 120 HOURS. GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF THE

WIND FIELD AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...MY FEELING IS

THAT IT MAY TAKE THE WIND FIELD LONGER THAN USUAL TO CONTRACT DOWN

IN SIZE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS BULLISH AS

THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

VERY LOW...SO SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY

POSSIBLE AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE VERY WARM CENTRAL

CARIBBEAN SEA IN DAYS 4 AND 5.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 13/2100Z 8.9N 46.2W 30 KT

12HR VT 14/0600Z 9.5N 48.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 14/1800Z 10.3N 52.2W 40 KT

36HR VT 15/0600Z 11.1N 55.7W 45 KT

48HR VT 15/1800Z 12.1N 59.1W 55 KT

72HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 65.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 71.5W 70 KT

120HR VT 18/1800Z 18.5N 77.0W 80 KT

[JerseyJim2]

Gee, I went out to dinner and a movie and TD 4 was upgraded to TS Danielle. Here is the current (11PM) discussion:

 

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

 

THE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...WITH A MARKED

INCREASE IN BOTH BANDING AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR NEAR THE CENTER OVER

THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB

AT 0Z WERE T2.5...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL

STORM.

 

DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS

WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE

CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT

WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER FROM THIS

SCENARIO IS THE NOGAPS...WHICH WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND TAKES ITS

REMNANTS WESTWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS

ALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED

NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE SOUTH OF

MOST OF GUIDANCE.

 

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE

REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Definitely a storm to watch closely.

Jim

[cs]

Heh, I don't mind stopping at Bermuda instead of Port Canaveral...

I'm with you. Bermuda wouldn't be so bad. As long as they don't decide to bring us to Canada (last year's cruise for us) I'm game to a change in destination.