NJBill Posted July 12, 2007 #1 Share Posted July 12, 2007 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 529 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007 VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER SERN CANADA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PD...BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH INROADS TROF MAKES INTO NWRN US FROM PAC. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GEM GLOBAL THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR PRELIM PROGS. USED ECMWF DETAILS ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BASED ON STABLE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND TYPICAL STRONG PERFORMANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. GFS HAS BACKED CONSIDERABLY OFF ITS RETROGRESSION OF ATL RIDGE INTO THE ERN US IT WAS DEPICTING 24 HRS AGO. GEM GLOBAL STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING HURRICANE INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE PD...A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THE MODELS CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillySoul Posted July 13, 2007 #2 Share Posted July 13, 2007 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 529 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007 VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER SERN CANADA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PD...BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH INROADS TROF MAKES INTO NWRN US FROM PAC. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GEM GLOBAL THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR PRELIM PROGS. USED ECMWF DETAILS ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BASED ON STABLE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND TYPICAL STRONG PERFORMANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. GFS HAS BACKED CONSIDERABLY OFF ITS RETROGRESSION OF ATL RIDGE INTO THE ERN US IT WAS DEPICTING 24 HRS AGO. GEM GLOBAL STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING HURRICANE INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE PD...A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THE MODELS CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM. Im in South Florida and so far our newscasts are saying some rain storms we always get, but nothing to bother anyone execpt for getting a bit wet. No tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JanineM Posted July 14, 2007 #3 Share Posted July 14, 2007 We're in Central Florida and they're forecasting scattered thunderstorms. Our area (coastal east of Orlando) is on the western edge of a Bermuda high, which is bringing some rain. No mention of anything tropical! KNOCKING WOOD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvery Seas Cruiser Posted July 14, 2007 #4 Share Posted July 14, 2007 We also live in South Florida. Neither the Miami nor the West Palm Beach TV weather men are even hinting at a hurricane. Not saying it cannot or will not happen. Stranger things have happened. I surely hope it doesn't though. Anyway, I hope it goes over Lake Okeechobee if it does come because that lake desperately needs the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luecke5 Posted July 14, 2007 #5 Share Posted July 14, 2007 We will be the Orlando area next week (Wed-Sat) before getting on a cruise ship Sunday. I hope we're not rained on the whole time! We've had nothing but rain here in Oklahoma ALL summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bequia Posted July 14, 2007 #6 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Bring it on.....:cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillySoul Posted July 16, 2007 #7 Share Posted July 16, 2007 We will be the Orlando area next week (Wed-Sat) before getting on a cruise ship Sunday. I hope we're not rained on the whole time! We've had nothing but rain here in Oklahoma ALL summer! This is the rainy season so showers in the afternoon are normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cusyl Posted July 16, 2007 #8 Share Posted July 16, 2007 We are having a drought here in the Tampa Bay area. Our grass is all brown and the leaves on our plants are drooping. We need rain badly.:o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 18, 2007 #9 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Ooops... guess someone missed: ABNT20 KNHC 180218TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BEVEN Ya' know... they can't even accurately tell me what the weather will be like 12 hours from now.Most forecasts are a bust and, sadly, hurricane forecasters have been missing worse than anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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