Should I Start To Worry?

[gtalum]

Everyone is right. Why people choose to roll the dice with Mother Nature is beyond me...

 

 

"Everyone" is not right. The chances of having a problem due to hurricane season are slim. Even when a system is out there, the ship will avoid it.

 

My advice: don't worry. Have a good time. And ignore the wimps. :)

[zippnby]

Are you flying down the day of your cruise? When ever we have to fly to a port we always fly down the day before. That leaves time in case the flight is delayed or any other complication. Then we get a hotel room close to the pier and relax!!!

 

If you can swing it you might want to see if you can change your flight?

[dan40]

Everyone is right. Why people choose to roll the dice with Mother Nature is beyond me...

 

Got Travel Insurance?

 

Everyone is not right, we have been cruising in hurricane season for more years than I care to mention. Have had one days delay and a few ports missed, thats all. Remember hurricane season is actually ONE HALF THE YEAR June 1 to November 30. So its pretty easy to cruise "in season". Also remember that there are multi millions of us that LIVE HERE all thru hurricane season. Did you think we ALL were up north for the "season?":D I'd rather be at sea, motoring away from a hurricane at 20+ knots than riding it out in my house. [the house won't do more than 3 knots, tops!]:D

 

In 2004, our town, Vero Beach got hit with Frances and Jeanne. Frances was the first hurricane to hit here in 55 years. That is just sitting here, unmoving. Ships can sail away from the storms and have a great AND SMOOTH cruise.

Back in 04, I posted about being in Home Depot until 2AM waiting for another shipment of plywood to come in so we could board up. Someone asked why I wouldn't have plywood already cut to fit every window. I answered, because the plywood would be 55 years old. But they were right. Now we have steel shutters on every window, corrugated steel panels to go over the patio doors, the fasteners to bolt everything down embedded in the walls [very striking] Our attic has as much wood added as bracing as the original trusses had when it was built. A new metal roof with a quarter inch thick rubber underlayment all fastened with screws every six inches. Why? Jeanne did over $120,000 damage to the house. That's what happens when you can't dodge like a ship can.:D

 

Dan

[smashley]

I think it's natural to expect the worst - just stay positive and keep those cruising spirits up! Good luck in your travels!

[sunshinewitch]

sorry wrong thread:eek:

[lubbockcruzr]

I booked my last cruise out of Galveston Sep of last year during "H" season as you put it, and it was the smoothest water I have been on like we weren't even on water on, so stay positive! and the capitan will change Itenararies so that you will have the best cruise possible alternate ports more sea days and Sea days are My favorite so relaxing

[kylescoolmom]

Is this the storm you are worried about? The computer models look ok for your cruise......I think! This is the only storm out in the Atlantic right now...

 

 

 

You said you would come back and explain the new storm for me. The weather channel is focused on Texas. Those poor people. Which track is the most accurate? Please say red - please say red........

 

[neverpar]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 13, 2007

 

satellite images and microwave data indicate that the cloud pattern

has not become any better organized during the past few hours and

the low-level center is located to the north of a large circular

area of deep convection. Initial intensity remains at 30 knots. The

depression still has the opportunity to become a tropical storm

since the shear is expected to decrease in the next day or so.

Thereafter...all global models forecast strong upper-level

westerlies over the eastern Caribbean and the adjacent Atlantic

waters associated with a stronger than normal upper-level trough.

This pattern is likely to inhibit the depression from

strengthening significantly. Weakening is indicated by the end of

the forecast period as the cyclone approaches the area well to the

northeast of the Leeward Islands where the shear is expected to be

large.

 

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at

9 knots around a weak mid-level high pressure system. Since steering

currents are forecast to further weaken...the depression is

expected to decrease in forward speed during the next 12 to 24

hours. The cyclone should then continue on this general slow

west-northwest track through 5 days. Track gui dace is in good

agreement bringing the cyclone on a slow west-northwest motion and

weakening. The UK and ECMWF models keep the cyclone a little bit

longer but this is not realistic given the anticipated highly

unfavorable upper-level environment ahead of the cyclone.

[dan40]

THIS THREAD STARTED SEPTEMBER FOURTH! It was about a storm LONG GONE now. The one that just grazed the outer banks. Storms dead, let the thread die too, K?

 

Dan

[neverpar]

THIS THREAD STARTED SEPTEMBER FOURTH! It was about a storm LONG GONE now. The one that just grazed the outer banks. Storms dead, let the thread die too, K?

 

Dan

 

Actually she (kylescoolmom) is asking about the storm brewing South of the Lesser Antillies...so no we won't let this thread die.

She is asking for information and we are providing it for her.

Maybe it should be moved to the Hurricane 07 thread..but for now it's here and we will try and update the info on TD8..

 

 

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2007

 

a 0900z Quikscat overpass received after the previous advisory

suggested that system could have been a tropical storm for a few

hours. The image depicted a few un-flagged 35 kt winds just to the

east and south of the center. Since then...visible imagery

indicates a severely sheared...poorly organized system.

Consequently...the initial intensity will be kept at 30 kt.

During the next 24 hours...intensity guidance suggest that there is

still a chance that the depression will develop into a tropical

storm. Afterward...through the remainder of the forecast

period...large scale models continue to forecast strong

upper-tropospheric westerlies...associated with a deep layer

mid-Atlantic trough...extending from the eastern Caribbean and

adjacent Atlantic waters. The official intensity forecast follows

suit and is slightly below the previous package.

Based on the aforementioned Quikscat pass and an earlier ssmis

microwave image...the track has been adjusted slightly to the left

of the previous forecast...reflecting an initial estimated motion

of 285/7. This general motion should continue through the entire

forecast...with a continued slight reduction in forward motion

during the next 12 to 24 hours. The official forecast is basically

a reflection of the previous one...but just to the left...following

a blend of the UKMET...GFDL...and the GFS.

[kylescoolmom]

Thank you so much neverpar you seem to explain it a lot better than some of the web sites I visited.

 

 

Again thank you for taking time to help me. :)

[dan40]

Actually she (kylescoolmom) is asking about the storm brewing South of the Lesser Antillies...so no we won't let this thread die.

She is asking for information and we are providing it for her.

Maybe it should be moved to the Hurricane 07 thread..but for now it's here and we will try and update the info on T

 

 

I was referring to the OP. That storm is gone. Should we hide/lose the rest of hurricane season within this thread?

New storm, new thread, old storm, thread dead. Seem logical?

 

Dan

[Matlily]

:D

You said you would come back and explain the new storm for me. The weather channel is focused on Texas. Those poor people. Which track is the most accurate? Please say red - please say red........

 

 

 

I hope it takes the RED LINE:D

[dan40]

kylescoolmom,

Try looking here.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

Dan

[neverpar]

You're very welcome kylescoolmom! Here is another update..

 

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2007

 

conventional satellite imagery indicates a smaller weaker low

rotating about a more dominant...broad...circulation to the

southeast. The initial position will be based on a centroid

position of the two circulation centers. There are no changes to

the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from this morning...and

the initial intensity remains as 30 kt.

The official forecast intensity remains virtually unchanged from the

previous forecast...suggesting a possibility of strengthening to a

tropical storm during the next 12 hours. Afterward...the intensity

models indicate very little strengthening through the 72 hour

period...with a weakening through the remainder of the period as

upper level westerlies are expected to spread from the eastern

Caribbean over the adjacent Atlantic waters.

 

Initial motion is estimated at 290/5...a little to the right of the

previous package. The cyclone should gradually continue on a

general west-northwestward motion within weak steering flow of a

mid- tropospheric ridge to the north through the forecast period.

The dynamical models are in more agreement than this morning...with

the 12z ECMWF now suggesting a motion similar to the other models.

The NOGAPS...however...shows the most vertical depth which appears

to be influencing a dramatic turn to the right toward a

retrograding upper level trough situated to the northeast of the

depression. The official forecast is similar to the previous

forecast...with a slight adjustment to the right...and agrees with

a blend of all the available dynamical guidance with the exception

of the NOGAPS.

[neverpar]

TS8 now has a name......TS Ingrid. here is the latest update..

 

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2007

 

latest conventional satellite imagery and a 0452 UTC AMSU-b

microwave pass suggest that the center of circulation lies beneath

the large burst of deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimates

from TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt respectively. Since a

NOAA hurricane hunter plane conducting another research mission is

currently en Route to investigate the cyclone...I will hold off

increasing the initial intensity until a more accurate measurement

can be taken. So...ingrid will be maintained as a 35 kt tropical

storm for this advisory.

The primary mechanism that will affect the future intensity of

ingrid will be the amount of shear the cyclone encounters over the

next 5 days. About 10-15 knots of west-southwesterly shear is

currently affecting ingrid...which should persist for the next

24-36 hours. Thereafter...the shear is expected to strengthen

hampering ingrid from intensifying further. The official intensity

forecast allows for some strengthening in the near term followed by

gradual weakening. This follows closely with the previous forecast

and is consistent with a blend of the SHIPS/lge and fsse intensity

guidance.

 

The initial motion is estimated around 300/6. Ingrid is in a weak

steering environment with a weak ridge positioned to its northeast

and a mid- to upper-level low located to its north. Model guidance

is in overall agreement that the upper low will continue to move

southwestward over the next several days and gradually weaken.

Both the strength of the upper-level low and that of ingrid will

determine the degree of steering the cyclone will take toward the

northwest. Since ingrid is forecast to remain a relatively weak

cyclone in a sheared environment...the official track forecast

maintains a west-northwest motion that is slightly north of the

previous track but south of the dynamical model consensus.

[kylescoolmom]

Again - THANK YOU for taking time to keep me (us) posted.