FIRELT5 Posted September 13, 2007 #76 Share Posted September 13, 2007 Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 000 WTNT43 KNHC 131433 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007 A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION OF 285/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 13.9N 48.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 49.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 49.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 14.8N 50.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 52.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 18.2N 59.6W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quick Navigation Links: NHC Active Storms - Atlantic and E Pacific Marine - Storm Archives Hurricane Awareness - How to Prepare - About NHC - Contact Us -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Hurricane Center Tropical Prediction Center 11691 SW 17th Street Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov Disclaimer Credits Information Quality Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities Page last modified: Thursday, 13-Sep-2007 14:34:13 GMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted September 13, 2007 #77 Share Posted September 13, 2007 Strong shear, Poor outflow, Dry Air, Upper Level Dynamics are not favorable for this system in the mid term. Howerver, System still should be watched :) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted September 13, 2007 #78 Share Posted September 13, 2007 000 Wtnt33 Knhc 132033 Tcpat3 Bulletin Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 6 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007 500 Pm Ast Thu Sep 13 2007 ...poorly Organized Depression Slowly Moving West-northwestward... At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was Located Near Latitude 14.2 North...longitude 48.4 West Or About 865 Miles...1395 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles. The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 6 Mph...10 Km/hr. This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Although Upper-level Conditions Have Become Less Favorable For Strengthening...the Depression Still Has The Chance To Become A Tropical Storm During The Next 12 To 24 Hours. A Noaa Hurricane Hunter Plane Is Scheduled To Investigate The System This Evening. Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches. Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...14.2 N...48.4 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb. The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 1100 Pm Ast. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrp96 Posted September 14, 2007 #79 Share Posted September 14, 2007 She's now Tropical Storm Ingrid: 000 WTNT33 KNHC 140227 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007 ...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N...48.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
massfriends Posted September 14, 2007 #80 Share Posted September 14, 2007 How things can change, this storm is getting very interesting....it is definitely one to watch. We sail Sunday...Monday is Cococay...Wednesday is St. Thomas...Thursday is St. Maarten..the other days at sea. Where oh where will we go.....as long as I'm on the ship I don't care if we sail in circles. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rancher Dave Posted September 14, 2007 #81 Share Posted September 14, 2007 She's now Tropical Storm Ingrid: 000 WTNT33 KNHC 140227 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007 $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Dr. Frank one of the local WX experts formerly of NHC indicated he expects to see in a few days TS -I downgrade back to TD...and he left his prediction there... I think it will really depend on what turn she makes. He and others yesterday thought TS-H was blowing into Galveston. In the end it was Hurricant Humberto that hit a couple dozen miles East of Galveston... Talk about forecasters getting caught with their pants down... In 15 hours we went from a collection of thunderstorms maybe a hundred miles South of here to a Strong Cat-1 Hurricane hitting land..and he kept up the hurricane strength for many miles inland. At evening news cast 10pm here they were saying maybe a bit East of Galveston at TS strength...closer to midnight I looked for latest update and saw a radar that showed a strengthened storm...went to sleep got up early and wow it was a Hurricane that hit looking even fiercer than at midnight. I point out the quick changes of our storm because too many folks are focused on what forecasters are saying, but even well educated forecasters sometimes miss....some storms have minds of their own and if Ingrid goes that way it could make for a really crazy cruise if she is out there where you are cruising. Hope everyone as smooth sailing and gets to most if not all of their ports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Radio Posted September 14, 2007 #82 Share Posted September 14, 2007 Thanks Skyking, for posting this thread ! ! Good luck on your cruise next week ! ! Radio :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare skyking Posted September 14, 2007 Author #83 Share Posted September 14, 2007 Thanks Skyking, for posting this thread ! ! Good luck on your cruise next week ! ! Radio :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Thanks Bud:) Have fun on yours as well, it looks like this storm is starting to make that turn to the north thanks to that shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnparend Posted September 14, 2007 #84 Share Posted September 14, 2007 Current predictions continue to take this up into the atlantic. The more of a northern track the less likely for the storm to build b/c of the lack of warmer waters. There has been a high pressure area in the souther states for several weeks, which is Krytonite to hurricanes, hope it states thru October. The local weather geeks here say TS Ingrid will go into north atlantic. As most folks living in the gulf area know though this time of year (Aug - Oct) any storm in the gulf can be a hurricane overnight b/c of the the high water temps in the gulf. In 1993 there was a thunderstorm off our coast (Tampa Area) in the morning it was a hurricane. It developed so fast the NHC didn't even have time to name it so it was named "The No Name Storm" The link below has a picture of the surf almost completely covering a two story home on the beach. So Humberto, go thing for Texas it moved in so quickly otherwise it could have gotten worse. http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/SW.3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Radio Posted September 14, 2007 #85 Share Posted September 14, 2007 Thanks Bud:) Have fun on yours as well, it looks like this storm is starting to make that turn to the north thanks to that shear. It can go north. . . . As long as it doesnt go to Bermuda ! ! :( Radio ;) ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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